Michael Graff

Law and Finance: Common Law and Civil Law Countries Compared—An Empirical Critique

The ‘theory of law and finance’ argues that the common law system provides a better framework for financial development and economic growth than the civil law tradition. This paper identifies a number of problems that cast doubt on the soundness of the empirical basis of this literature. However, this analysis supports the idea that the legal tradition is a major factor in shaping corporate law. In particular, while there is not much evidence that common law countries protect financial investors better than civil law countries I find support for the assumption that financial investors are treated differently across legal families.

Causal Links Between Financial Activity and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from a Cross-Country Analysis, 1970-1990

To clarify the causal links between financial activity and economic growth, a series of path models is estimated. It is shown that during the 1970s and 1980s finance was predominantly a supply–leading determinant of economic growth. The data suggest, however, that there has been a structural change and that from about 1975–80, finance was far less beneficial – and possibly even detrimental – to growth.

Export specialization and economic growth

Traditional economic wisdom claims that – while global economic integration is beneficial for economic performance – a countrys trade specialization pattern has no impact on its economic performance. In this paper, we seek to cast doubt on this aspect of mainstream economics using a very traditional approach. We introduce a simple endogenous growth model that shows how governments can stimulate economic growth by implementing policies that successfully create competitive advantages in favourable sectors. According to new growth theory, favourable sectors inhibit technological spill-over effects to the non-tradable sector. The model is supported by the data. Using a standard augmented aggregate production function we run a series of growth regressions including technological change and a proxy for trade specialization. Our results indicate that contrary to conventional wisdom export specialization matters: sectors are not indistinguishable in their impact on economic performance. The paper concludes with a broader discussion of policy implications.

Financial development and economic growth: A new empirical analysis

The paper describes tests of hypotheses from economic history concerning the significance of financial development as a determinant of economic growth. It goes beyond the existing studies in drawing on a large panel data set covering 93 countries from 1970-90 and includes a new proxy for the resource input into the financial system. Moreover, interaction effects between financial development and catching-up as well as education are considered. Finally, to clarify causal relationships, a two-wave path model is estimated. It is shown that during the 1970s and 1980s finance was a significant and predominantly supply-leading determinant of growth.

Does a multi-sectoral design improve indicator-based forecasts of the GDP growth rate? Evidence from Switzerland

This article presents a multi-sectoral composite indicator for the Swiss GDP growth rate, targeting a lead of two quarters. The in-sample period ranges from 1991 to 2002 and 14 data points are reserved as out of sample to assess the forecasting performance. The results appear promising, in terms of both phase and amplitude. Comparisons with two other uni-sectoral composite leading indicators for the same reference series–the traditional KOF (Konjunkturforschungsstelle) barometer as published until March 2006 and a uni-sectoral composite indicator computed from the same indicators as the multi-sectoral instrument–show that the new approach is superior to the alternatives, which is due to both its broader information basis as well as to the structure that is imposed by the multi-sectoral design. Yet, there are pronounced differences regarding the accuracy of the sectoral forecasts, so that there is scope for improvement.

Coincident and leading indicators of manufacturing industry: sales, production, orders and inventories in switzerland

The Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research regularly conducts business tendency surveys (BTS) amongst manufacturing firms. The information thus generated is available with a publication lead to the official Swiss sales, production, order and inventory statistics. It is shown that the survey data can be used to generate reasonably precise estimates of the reference series with leads of at least one quarter. Specifically, cross-correlations of quarterly series are computed to screen the data for pairs of highly correlated business tendency survey series and corresponding official statistics.

Socio-Economic Factors and the Finance-Growth Nexus

The finance-growth nexus is discussed, and a framework for empirical analysis is formulated. Based on data for 93 countries from 1960–1990, a growth equation is estimated. It includes the standard regressors as well as a new proxy for financial activity and interaction effects of the latter with catching-up, education, and physical capital accumulation. Financial activity generally has a positive impact on economic growth. Then, the countries are ranked with respect to their degree of corporatism, institutional quality, democracy, market orientation and characteristics of their financial systems. The sample is split according to these control variables. It is shown that the finance-growth nexus is indeed contingent on socio-economic factors. Specifically, the growth effect of a given level of financial activity is higher in more law enforcing and more corporatist countries, whereas the results are inconclusive with respect to democracy, market orientation and financial structure.The finance-growth nexus is discussed, and a framework for empirical analysis is formulated. Based on data for 93 countries from 1960–1990, a growth equation is estimated. It includes the standard regressors as well as a new proxy for financial activity and interaction effects of the latter with catching-up, education, and physical capital accumulation. Financial activity generally has a positive impact on economic growth. Then, the countries are ranked with respect to their degree of corporatism, institutional quality, democracy, market orientation and characteristics of their financial systems. The sample is split according to these control variables. It is shown that the finance-growth nexus is indeed contingent on socio-economic factors. Specifically, the growth effect of a given level of financial activity is higher in more law enforcing and more corporatist countries, whereas the results are inconclusive with respect to democracy, market orientation and financial structure.

Does financial activity cause economic growth

To clarify the causal links between financial activity and economic growth, three theoretical models are analyzed and a structural equation path models is estimated. In the modeling part, poverty traps result from large fixed costs or high proportions of real investment to run a financial sector. Human capital allocated to financial activities will improve long-run levels but may reduce growth rates in the short run. Empirically, based on data for 93 countries during the 1980-90 period, it is shown that during the 1980s finance was predominantly a supply-leading determinant of economic growth. Our analysis suggests, however, that this general finding cannot be confirmed for the less developed countries, thereby giving some support to the conclusions derived from the theoretical modeling.

The KOF Economic Barometer, Version 2014: A Composite Leading Indicator for the Swiss Business Cycle

This paper presents a composite leading indicator for the Swiss business cycle corresponding to the growth rate cycle concept. It is the result of a complete overhaul of the KOF Economic Barometer that has been published by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute on a monthly basis since 1976. In line with this tradition, the calculation of the new KOF Barometer comprises two main stages. The first consists of the variable selection procedure; and in the second stage these variables are subsequently transformed into one leading indicator. Whereas in the previous versions of the KOF Barometer six to 25 variables survived the first stage, the new – less discretionary and more automated – version of the first stage is much more generous. Currently, out of a set of 476 variables resulting in 4356 transformations thereof that are tested in the first stage, 219 variables manage to enter the second stage. The increased number of variables underlying the second stage allows a relatively stable and robust KOF Barometer – compared to its previous versions – that has hence no longer to rely on filtering techniques to reduce the noise in the final indicator. In a (pseudo-) real-time analysis the characteristics of the new KOF Barometer are compared to the previous versions and other alternatives.

Inflation Inequality in Europe

We analyze cross-household inflation dispersion in Europe using “fictitious” monthly inflation rates for several household categories (grouped according to income levels, household size, socio-economic status, age) for the period from 1997 to 2008. Our analysis is carried out on a panel of 23 up to 27 household-specific inflation rates per country for 15 countries. In the first part of the paper, we employ time series and related non-stationary panel approaches to shed light on cross-country differences in inflation inequality with respect to the number of driving forces in the panel. In particular, we focus on the degree of persistence of the household-specific inflation rates and their the adjustment behaviour towards the inflation rate of a “representative household”. In the second part of the paper, we pool over the full sample of all countries and test if and by how much certain household categories across Europe are more prone to significant inflation differentials and significant differences in the volatility of inflation. Furthermore we search for the presence of clusters with respect to inflation susceptibility. On the national level, we find evidence for the existence of one main driving factor driving the non-stationarity of the panel and evidence for a single co-integration vector. Persistence of deviations, however, is high, and the adjustment speed towards the “representative household” is low. Even if there is no concern about a long-run stable distribution, at least in the short- to medium run deviations tend to last. On the European level, we find small but significant differences (mainly along income levels), we can separate 5 clusters and two main driving forces for the differences in the overall panel. All in all, even if differences are relatively small, they are not negligible and persistent enough to represent a serious matter of debate for economic and social policy.