Andreas Dibiasi

Unveiling Participant Level Determinants of Unit Non-Response in Business Tendency Surveys

Business Tendency Surveys (BTS) continue to be an important source of timely informa- tion on business cycles in many countries. We address quality of economic survey data by uncovering the relation between unit non-response and participant characteristics on company respectively respondent level. We use a unique, matched dataset that merges rich business tendency survey panel data with data from an exclusively conducted meta survey. Our meta information enhances the set of rm characteristics by information such as valuation of business tendency surveys or perceived response burden. We use dierent count data models to explain non-response count. Our models include weighted count data regressions as well as a two part hurdle model. We nd that response burden, a companys survey track record, timeliness and participation mode are the strongest and most robust predictors of unit non-response. We also nd a weaker negative eect of the business situation on unit response. Remarkably we do not nd a signicant in uence of neither company size nor valuation of BTS on the propensity to respond to periodical qualitative BTS.

The effects of policy uncertainty on investment: Evidence from the unexpected acceptance of a far-reaching referendum in Switzerland

Does increased economic policy uncertainty dampen investment of firms? We provide direct evidence on this question by examining the effects of an unexpectedly accepted and far-reaching referendum in Switzerland in February 2014. The outcome put several economically relevant agreements between Switzerland and its main trading partner, the European Union, at stake. Using firm-level panel data covering the 2009–2015 period and data from two special surveys levied shortly after the vote, we examine how the induced policy uncertainty affected investment of Swiss firms. Our Difference-in-Differences-in-Differences estimations and complementary survey results give strong evidence that the uncertainty caused by the vote dampened, as theoretically expected, investment of exposed firms with irreversible investment by as much as one quarter in the two years following the vote. Exposed firms that can reverse investment appear rather to increase investment in the year after the vote. Our survey evidence suggests that these firms engage in investment to streamline their production.

Konjunkturanalyse: Prognose 2016/2017, Preissenkungen haben Einbruch abgefedert – Abwertung hellt Aussichten auf

This text contains the autumn forecast 2015 of the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich, released on 1 October 2015. The first part discusses recent economic developments abroad and in Switzerland, and presents the main forecast results across the various sectors of the economy. In the second part, detailed forecasts for Switzerland follow, split up into the main demand components of GDP. We expect the Swiss economy to grow by 0.9% in 2015, 1.4% in 2016 and 1.8% in 2017, respectively, representing a small upward revision compared with our last forecast from June 2015. In particular, the positive economic development in Europe and the depreciation of the Swiss franc during the second half of 2015 are specified as reasons for this adjustment. The negative price developments during the first half of 2015 are also newsworthy, as both the general price level and sales prices in certain sectors are falling.