Michael Hiete

Decision maps: A framework for multi-criteria decision support under severe uncertainty

In complex strategic decision-making situations the need for well-structured support arises. To evaluate decision alternatives, information about the situation and its development must be determined, managed and processed by the best available experts. For various types of information different reasoning principles have been developed: deterministic, probabilistic, fuzzy and techniques for reasoning under ignorance (i.e., the likelihood of an event cannot be quantified). We propose a new approach based on Decision Maps supporting decision makers under fundamental uncertainty by generating descriptions of different possible situation developments (scenarios) in a distributed manner. The scenarios are evaluated using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis techniques.

Intercompany energy integration: adaptation of thermal pinch analysis and allocation of savings.

Reusing heat through process integration in heat exchanger networks has long been a key measure for increasing energy efficiency in energy‐intensive industries. Thermal pinch analysis is commonly used for a systematic matching of process streams and thus planning of optimal process integration in large chemical plants. The possible savings increase with the amount of heat and the number of integrated process streams. Therefore co‐siting of several companies in a symbiotic network opens new opportunities for process integration even in small and medium‐size enterprises (SMEs), but also introduces new challenges. Thermal pinch analysis is extended here to account for piping distances and fluctuations and limited availability of energy flows by adding additional costs for the piping system and a backup utility system in the optimization function. Cooperative game theory is proposed to derive a sharing of savings between the partners of the industrial symbiosis that is optimal for each partner and should prevent partners from leaving the network because of higher benefits in a subgroup or alone. It is argued that knowledge about the optimality of a network for each partner creates trust between the partners that is a necessary base for the long‐term commitment needed in industrial symbioses. An exemplary symbiotic network combining the production of pulp and woody biomass energy carriers is used to illustrate the proposed approaches.

Trapezoidal fuzzy DEMATEL method to analyze and correct for relations between variables in a composite indicator for disaster resilience

Indicator systems of disaster vulnerability are important for monitoring and increasing the capacity in risk management. Various composite indicators have been developed to operationalize social vulnerability at national and sub-national level. Problems with relations between the sub-indicators of the composite indicator are a common phenomenon. The fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method analyzes the structure of complex cause-effect relationships between the sub-indicators based on perceived direct influences. The results provide insight into the composite indicators and can be used to correct the sub-indicator weighting for relations between the sub-indicators and allow the identification of cause- and effect-group sub-indicators which is an important information for selecting mitigation measures in risk management. The fuzzy DEMATEL method is generalized to take into account trapezoidal membership functions. A composite indicator originally developed to determine the disaster resilience in US counties is adapted, operationalized and used to assess the resilience of Germany at county level using corrected weights. Resilience is highest in urban areas and in southern Germany and lowest in rural areas, in particular in eastern Germany.

Inter-Company Energy Integration

Reusing heat through process integration in heat exchanger networks has long been a key measure for increasing energy efficiency in energy‐intensive industries. Thermal pinch analysis is commonly used for a systematic matching of process streams and thus planning of optimal process integration in large chemical plants. The possible savings increase with the amount of heat and the number of integrated process streams. Therefore co‐siting of several companies in a symbiotic network opens new opportunities for process integration even in small and medium‐size enterprises (SMEs), but also introduces new challenges. Thermal pinch analysis is extended here to account for piping distances and fluctuations and limited availability of energy flows by adding additional costs for the piping system and a backup utility system in the optimization function. Cooperative game theory is proposed to derive a sharing of savings between the partners of the industrial symbiosis that is optimal for each partner and should prevent partners from leaving the network because of higher benefits in a subgroup or alone. It is argued that knowledge about the optimality of a network for each partner creates trust between the partners that is a necessary base for the long‐term commitment needed in industrial symbioses. An exemplary symbiotic network combining the production of pulp and woody biomass energy carriers is used to illustrate the proposed approaches.

Enhancing Robustness in Multi-criteria Decision-Making: A Scenario-Based Approach

This paper presents a distributed system facilitating robust decision-making under uncertainty in complex situations often found in strategic emergency management. The construction of decision-relevant scenarios, each being a consistent, coherent and plausible description of a situation and its future development, is used as a rationale for collecting, organizing, filtering and processing information for decision-making. The construction of scenarios is targeted at assessing decision alternatives avoiding time-consuming processing of irrelevant information. The scenarios are constructed in a distributed setting ensuring that each decision can be founded on a coherent and consistent set of assessments and assumptions provided by the best (human or artificial) experts available within limited time. Our theoretical framework is illustrated by means of an emergency management example.

Analysing the interdependencies between the criteria of sustainable building rating systems

Various building rating systems have been developed to assess the ‘green’ or sustainable performance of buildings. Most systems make use of hierarchical criteria systems to evaluate the buildings with respect to the different aspects of sustainability. Often, these criteria show complex interdependencies between each other. Taking the German building rating system as an example, the Decision‐Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method is used to analyse such interdependencies and to characterize the criteria. Users of the rating system might benefit from this information, e.g. when focusing on cause criteria counting on that an improvement there will also result in improvements of dependent criteria. Rating system developers might remove strongly related criteria and correct the criteria weighting for identified interdependencies.

Multicriteria decision support for business continuity planning in the event of critical infrastructure disruptions

Industrial production sites and Critical Infrastructures (CIs) may be severely damaged by external events, such as man-made or natural hazards. Particularly, a disruption in the electricity supply may cause physical damages and production downtimes associated with substantial economic losses. Due to the tight interdependencies within the different CI sectors and the complex network structure of modern supply chains, these losses are (in most cases) not restricted to single companies and the resultant negative consequences might be propagated via cascading effects into far-off supply chain links. In order to reduce the negative consequences, speed up business recovery and enhance the overall coping capacity of industrial production sites and global supply chains in the event of CI disruptions, many companies have implemented Business Continuity Planning (BCP) programmes. Within this study, we assess the negative impacts of CI disruptions on production industry and introduce a quantitative method for BCP from the field of Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to evaluate the potential BCP measures.

A multi-scale urban analysis of the Hyderabad metropolitan area using remote sensing and GIS

Hyderabad in India is a sprawling metropolis and an incipient megacity facing structural, environmental, social and economic problems. An interdisciplinary research approach provides a holistic perspective on the urban characteristics to develop strategies for a more sustainable future. Thus, a multi-scale analysis of the urban area by remote sensing provides up-to-date data of the urban morphology. An overview analysis with a time series of Landsat data shows the dynamic growth of the urban area, its direction as well as the current spatial extension. QickBird data enable a highly detailed analysis of the structural characteristics of specific neighborhoods. These data provide the spatial basis within the GIS database complemented by further information from the city administration (e.g. population data, land use data) and finally detailed data from surveys. The combination of various perspectives of temporal and spatial urban characteristics can be used by different disciplines. This enables a value-added and more holistic view to understand urban workflows and their dependencies.

Scenario‐based impact analysis of a power outage on healthcare facilities in Germany

Purpose – Power outages which may be triggered, for example, by natural hazards and system failures are a common phenomenon, associated with large impacts on society including the healthcare sector. Minimising adverse impacts effectively requires an analysis of possible impacts and the identification of measures aiming at reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience.Design/methodology/approach – To systematically identify impacts as well as preparation, mitigation and recovery (PMR) measures, a moderated workshop with participants representing different healthcare sub‐sectors in Germany was conducted and complemented by semi‐structured interviews and a thorough analysis of literature. Impacts were determined for three scenarios of power outage duration, 24 hours.Findings – Whereas hospitals are in general well prepared with respect to shorter outages, due to obligatory emergency power in Germany, outpatient medical care, nursing homes (NH) and, in particular, home‐care nursing are early ...

Extreme weather events and road and rail transportation in Germany

Civil protection authorities, transport companies and operators need detailed information about the impacts of weather extremes on transportation systems in order to adapt risk and emergency management strategies. Due to the lack of data for Germany a pragmatic strategy to establish links between extreme weather events and adverse effects on road and rail transportation is proposed exploiting official annual reviews of the German Weather Service (DWD). In Germany road transportation is mainly disrupted due to ice and snow while rail transportation is most vulnerable to strong winds and winter conditions as well. Through the empirical evidence provided, hotspots for risk and emergency management in road and rail transportation concerning extreme weather events can be set. Recommendations for instruments to integrate extreme weather events into the risk and emergency management of road and rail transportation are given.