Michael Hübler

Energy Savings via FDI? Empirical Evidence from Developing Countries*

In this paper we examine the influence of foreign direct investment inflows on energy intensities of developing countries empirically. We first show that a simple OLS estimation, as it is found in the literature, suggests energy intensity reductions from FDI inflows, which is consistent with the hypothesis of energy saving technology transfer via FDI. However, such a regression turns out to be spurious and only a starting point for further research. Therefore, we use macro level data on 60 developing countries for the period 1975-2004 including other potential determinants of energy intensities and apply panel estimation techniques and tests. The results do not confirm the hypothesis that FDI inflows reduce energy intensities of developing countries in general. Interactions of FDI with country-specific characteristics do not show significant effects, either.

Designing an emissions trading scheme for China: An up-to-date climate policy assessment

We assess recent Chinese climate policy proposals in a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model with a Chinese carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS). When the emissions intensity per GDP in 2020 is required to be 45% lower than in 2005, the model simulations indicate that the climate policy induced welfare loss in 2020, measured as the level of GDP and welfare in 2020 under climate policy relative to their level under business-as-usual (BAU) in the same year, is about 1%. The Chinese welfare loss in 2020 slightly increases in the Chinese rate of economic growth in 2020. When keeping the emissions target fixed at the 2020 level after 2020 in absolute terms, the welfare loss will reach about 2% in 2030. If China׳s annual economic growth rate is 0.5 percentage points higher (lower), the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2030 will rise (decline) by about 0.5 percentage points. Full auctioning of carbon allowances results in very similar macroeconomic effects as free allocation, but full auctioning leads to higher reductions in output than free allocation for ETS sectors. Linking the Chinese to the European ETS and restricting the transfer volume to one third of the EU׳s reduction effort creates at best a small benefit for China, yet with smaller sectoral output reductions than auctioning. These results highlight the importance of designing the Chinese ETS wisely.

The EU Decarbonisation Roadmap 2050: What Way to Walk?

We carry out a detailed computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of the EU Decarbonisation Roadmap 2050 on a macroeconomic and on a sectoral level. Herein, we study a Reference scenario that implements existing EU policies as well as 3 unilateral and 3 global climate action scenarios. We identify global climate action with international emissions trading and the full equalisation of CO2 prices across all (EU) sectors as an economically reasonable policy option to avoid additional costs of the Decarbonisation Roadmap to a large extent. This policy option may include CDM (Clean Development Mechanism in the sense of ‘where’-flexibility) in an extended form if there are countries without emissions caps. Moreover, we identify diverse sectoral effects in terms of output, investment, emissions and international competitiveness. We conclude that the successful realisation of the EU Decarbonisation Roadmap probably requires a wise and joint consideration of technology, policy design and sectoral aspects.

An integrated assessment model with endogenous growth

We introduce endogenous directed technical change into numerical integrated climate and development policy assessment. We distinguish expenditures on innovation (R&D) and imitation (international technology spillovers) and consider the role of capital investment in creating and implementing new technologies. Our main contribution is to calibrate and numerically solve the model and to examine the models sensitivity. As an application, we assess a carbon budget-based climate policy and vary the beginning of energy-saving technology transfer. Accordingly, China is a main beneficiary of early technology transfer. Herein, our results highlight the importance of timely international technology transfer for efficiently meeting global emission targets. Most of the consumption gains from endogenous growth are captured in the baseline. Moreover, mitigation costs turn out to be insensitive to changes in most of the parameters of endogenous growth. A higher effectivity of energy-specific relative to labor-specific expenditures on innovation and imitation reduces mitigation costs, though.

EUROPEAN-LED CLIMATE POLICY VERSUS GLOBAL MITIGATION ACTION: IMPLICATIONS ON TRADE, TECHNOLOGY, AND ENERGY ¤

This paper examines how changes in an international climate regime would affect the European decarbonization strategy and costs through the mechanisms of trade, technology, and innovation. We present the results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) model comparison study on European climate policy to 2050. Moving from a no-policy scenario to an existing-policies case reduces all energy imports, on average. Introducing a more stringent climate policy target for the EU only leads to slightly greater global emission reductions. Consumers and producers in Europe bear most of the additional burden and inevitably face some economic losses. More ambitious mitigation action outside Europe, especially when paired with a well-operating global carbon market, could reduce the burden for Europe significantly. Because of global learning, the costs of wind and especially solar-PV in Europe would decline below the levels observed in the existing-policy case and increased R&D spending outside the EU would leverage EU R&D investments as well.

Avoiding the trap: The dynamic interaction of North–South capital mobility and technology diffusion

This paper analyzes a stylized model of international capital mobility and diffusion of embodied technologies from North to South. The South can fall behind in terms of technologies or get trapped in a situation in which it is unable to attract foreign capital and embodied technologies if it is too far away from the technology frontier and if its absorptive capacity is too low. The paper reconciles the view that technological catching up is stronger the larger the technology gap with the alternative view that technological catching up is strongest at a medium technology gap. The closer the South is to the technology frontier the more beneficial is a higher income share of foreign capital.

Is the risk of North-South technology transfer failure an obstacle to a cooperative climate change agreement?

We setup a stylized model with endogenous North–South technology transfer for climate change mitigation. We theoretically identify the driving factors that enhance or hinder cooperation with socially optimal binding targets on emissions and on investment in technology transfer. We find that the risk of technology transfer failure creates an obstacle to the achievement of the cooperative agreement: under cooperation, the South will have to fulfill the emissions target at high costs if technology transfer fails. Under non-cooperation without any binding targets, the North still has an intrinsic motivation to reduce emissions in the South at low costs via technology transfer; and the South does not have the pressure to fulfill an emissions target. As a result, non-cooperation shifts part of the costs of a technology transfer failure from the poor South to the rich North and can thus be preferable for the South. Two policy implications for achieving the cooperative solution are derived: first, the South should be insured against or compensated for a technology transfer failure. Second, an agreement on technology transfer should be formulated in terms of emissions reductions or low-carbon technology capacities that are to be achieved rather than in terms of monetary payments with uncertain effects on emissions. We discuss the model results in the context of empirical facts and current developments.

Economic growth, decarbonization and international transfers

We examine a carbon budget-based climate policy in a multi-region Integrated Assessment Model with intertemporal optimization. Innovation and technology diffusion are endogenized in a modern growth theory-based setup that is unique in integrated assessment. They can be directed towards energy or labour productivity. We study in detail how the strength and direction of innovation and technology diffusion influence the dynamic pattern of decarbonization and the structure of mitigation costs. For this purpose, we apply extended decomposition methods for decarbonization and consumption effects. We show that with high labour productivity growth, optimal decarbonization starts earlier and gains from emission permit trade for developing countries are dominated by output reductions. Therefore, additional transfers to developing countries will likely be necessary in a world of high labour productivity growth.

Catching up of emerging economies: the role of capital goods imports, FDI inflows, domestic investment and absorptive capacity

Abstract We show that the impact of capital goods imports and FDI inflows on economic convergence depends on the local capacity of emerging economies to absorb superior technologies.

Smartphones support smart labour

ABSTRACT Besides enabling communication, smartphones support information flows and financial transactions, especially in developing countries, where the coverage of landline networks is limited. Drawing upon new data of rural households in the Mekong region, this article finds that smartphone ownership increases labour mobility measured as the number of commuters whereas it seems to discourage the emigration of workers.