Sebastian Voigt

Designing an emissions trading scheme for China: An up-to-date climate policy assessment

We assess recent Chinese climate policy proposals in a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model with a Chinese carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS). When the emissions intensity per GDP in 2020 is required to be 45% lower than in 2005, the model simulations indicate that the climate policy induced welfare loss in 2020, measured as the level of GDP and welfare in 2020 under climate policy relative to their level under business-as-usual (BAU) in the same year, is about 1%. The Chinese welfare loss in 2020 slightly increases in the Chinese rate of economic growth in 2020. When keeping the emissions target fixed at the 2020 level after 2020 in absolute terms, the welfare loss will reach about 2% in 2030. If China׳s annual economic growth rate is 0.5 percentage points higher (lower), the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2030 will rise (decline) by about 0.5 percentage points. Full auctioning of carbon allowances results in very similar macroeconomic effects as free allocation, but full auctioning leads to higher reductions in output than free allocation for ETS sectors. Linking the Chinese to the European ETS and restricting the transfer volume to one third of the EU׳s reduction effort creates at best a small benefit for China, yet with smaller sectoral output reductions than auctioning. These results highlight the importance of designing the Chinese ETS wisely.

The value-added of sectoral disaggregation: Implications on competitive consequences of climate change policies

Global impact assessment of unilateral climate policies is commonly based on multi-sector, multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) models that are calibrated to consistent accounts of production, consumption, and bilateral trade flows. However, global economic databases such as GTAP treat energy-intensive and trade-exposed industries rather in aggregate, thereby missing potentially important details on the heterogeneity of these sectors. In this paper, we elaborate on the availability of data resources and methodological issues in disaggregating energy-intensive and trade-exposed sectors that receive larger attention in the public policy debate on unilateral emission regulation: non-ferrous metals, iron and steel and non-metallic minerals. Our sensitivity analysis revolves around three types of unobserved heterogeneity at the sub-sectoral level: trade elasticities, energy consumption and technology specifications. Drawing on the example of border tax adjustments, we find that for all given technology specifications and variation in energy shares, the biggest differences emerge from variations in Armington elasticities. Even moderate changes in Armington elasticities can alter the magnitude and the sign of the effects at the sectoral level. The implications of sub-sectoral disaggregation are not as pronounced for macroeconomic indicators and leakage as for sectoral indicators.

Supply and Demand Structure for International Offset Permits under the Copenhagen Pledges

International carbon offsets from developing countries and emerging economies, such as permits from the clean development mechanism, could potentially play an important role for cost containment in domestic greenhouse gas regulation by industrialised countries. Assuming that major emitters such as the EU, the USA, Canada, Japan, Australia and New Zealand implement the “Copenhagen Pledges” and seek cost containment, the potential demand for offset permits is estimated to be 627–667 MtCO2e per year. To describe the supply structure, marginal abatement cost curves for developing countries and emerging economies are derived. Developing countries and emerging economies could supply 627–667 MtCO2e p.a. at costs of approximately EUR 10 (in 2004 EUR), neglecting transaction costs and country-specific risks. The highest potentials for the generation of carbon offsets are present in China, India and the rest of Asia.

What Drives Changes in Carbon Emissions? An Index Decomposition Approach for 40 Countries

This study analyzes carbon emission trends and drivers in 40 major economies using the WIOD database, a harmonized and consistent dataset of input-output table time series accompanied by environmental satellite data. We use logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition to (1) study trends in global carbon emissions between 1995 and 2009, (2) attribute changes in carbon emissions to either influences of economic activity, changes in technology, changes in the structure of the economy, alterations of the fuel mix, or changes in carbon intensities of specific fuel types, and (3) highlight sectoral and regional differences. We first find that heterogeneity in each country is higher than heterogeneity in sectors. This finding might lead to the conclusion that, in order to abate CO2, structural conditions in sectors prevail over regional circumstances. Regarding our results of the decomposition analysis, the drivers of changes in carbon emissions are very heterogeneous. Among the world’s top ten emitters, in only three countries – China, Germany and Canada – the main driver of an improved emissions performance was technological change. Conversely, in Japan and Australia structural change of the economy contributed to less severe increases of emissions. The deployment of cleaner energy sources had a positive in some, mainly developed, economies. Moreover, our results for the global level suggest a general move towards more efficient means of production.

What Drives the Efficiency of Hard Coal Fuelled Electricity Generation? An Empirical Assessment

The efficiency of electricity generation in hard coal fired power plants varies considerably from country to country and over time. These differences occur both between developing and developed countries and between industrialised nations. The econometric analysis presented in this paper tests for the reasons of these discrepancies. In this examination abundance of hard coal and the price of hard coal are the two variables of our major interest. We assume that countries with an abundance of hard coal or relatively low costs of extraction show smaller degrees of efficiency than countries with poor deposits of this resource because the latter nations have a stronger dependency on efficient power plants than the former. Furthermore, higher prices should lead to more efficient electricity generation since production costs increase with growing hard coal prices. Our findings partially confirm these hypotheses and suggest that, among the chosen explanatory variables, hard coal abundance or the accessibility of hard coal, respectively, the hard coal price, the level of foreign direct investment inflows as well as the average power plant age are identified as principal drivers of power plant efficiency. From an environmental policy perspective we conclude that flexible policy instruments which internalise external effects caused by emissions as well as support for foreign investments are important means to foster energy efficiency. However, economic efficiency - even if contrasting with energy efficiency - must not be neglected in the design of energy policies.