Michael J. Wood

Dead and Alive: Beliefs in Contradictory Conspiracy Theories

Conspiracy theories can form a monological belief system: A self-sustaining worldview comprised of a network of mutually supportive beliefs. The present research shows that even mutually incompatible conspiracy theories are positively correlated in endorsement. In Study 1 (n = 137), the more participants believed that Princess Diana faked her own death, the more they believed that she was murdered. In Study 2 (n = 102), the more participants believed that Osama Bin Laden was already dead when U.S. special forces raided his compound in Pakistan, the more they believed he is still alive. Hierarchical regression models showed that mutually incompatible conspiracy theories are positively associated because both are associated with the view that the authorities are engaged in a cover-up (Study 2). The monological nature of conspiracy belief appears to be driven not by conspiracy theories directly supporting one another but by broader beliefs supporting conspiracy theories in general.

What about building 7? A social psychological study of online discussion of 9/11 conspiracy theories.

Recent research into the psychology of conspiracy belief has highlighted the importance of belief systems in the acceptance or rejection of conspiracy theories. We examined a large sample of conspiracist (pro-conspiracy-theory) and conventionalist (anti-conspiracy-theory) comments on news websites in order to investigate the relative importance of promoting alternative explanations vs. rejecting conventional explanations for events. In accordance with our hypotheses, we found that conspiracist commenters were more likely to argue against the opposing interpretation and less likely to argue in favor of their own interpretation, while the opposite was true of conventionalist commenters. However, conspiracist comments were more likely to explicitly put forward an account than conventionalist comments were. In addition, conspiracists were more likely to express mistrust and made more positive and fewer negative references to other conspiracy theories. The data also indicate that conspiracists were largely unwilling to apply the “conspiracy theory” label to their own beliefs and objected when others did so, lending support to the long-held suggestion that conspiracy belief carries a social stigma. Finally, conventionalist arguments tended to have a more hostile tone. These tendencies in persuasive communication can be understood as a reflection of an underlying conspiracist worldview in which the details of individual conspiracy theories are less important than a generalized rejection of official explanations.

Temporal characteristics of overt attentional behavior during category learning

Many theories of category learning incorporate mechanisms for selective attention, typically implemented as attention weights that change on a trial-by-trial basis. This is because there is relatively little data on within-trial changes in attention. We used eye tracking and mouse tracking as fine-grained measures of attention in three complex visual categorization tasks to investigate temporal patterns in overt attentional behavior within individual categorization decisions. In Experiments 1 and 2, we recorded participants’ eye movements while they performed three different categorization tasks. We extended previous research by demonstrating that not only are participants less likely to fixate irrelevant features, but also, when they do, these fixations are shorter than fixations to relevant features. We also found that participants’ fixation patterns show increasingly consistent temporal patterns. Participants were faster, although no more accurate, when their fixation sequences followed a consistent temporal structure. In Experiment 3, we replicated these findings in a task where participants used mouse movements to uncover features. Overall, we showed that there are important temporal regularities in information sampling during category learning that cannot be accounted for by existing models. These can be used to supplement extant models for richer predictions of how information is attended to during the buildup to a categorization decision.

Online communication as a window to conspiracist worldviews

In spite of the social stigma surrounding them, conspiracy theories are a common topic of public debate on the Internet. The content and tone of these discussions provide a useful insight into the structure of conspiracist belief systems and the psychological characteristics of those who believe and disbelieve in conspiracy theories. In this focused review, we relate patterns of behavior found in online comments to the broader research literature on the psychology of conspiracy theories. Most notably, as conspiracism has its basis in disbelieving a mainstream or received narrative rather than in believing a specific alternative, most conspiracist arguments tend to fall along those same lines. Finally, we examine the implications of this methodology for future research into online discussion, particularly among hard-to-research populations.

Informed inferences of unknown feature values in categorization

Many current computational models of object categorization either include no explicit provisions for dealing with incomplete stimulus information (e.g. Kruschke, Psychological Review 99:22–44, 1992) or take approaches that are at odds with evidence from other fields (e.g. Verguts, Ameel, & Storms, Memory & Cognition 32:379–389, 2004). In two experiments centered around the inverse base-rate effect, we demonstrate that people not only make highly informed inferences about the values of unknown features, but also subsequently use the inferred values to come to a categorization decision. The inferences appear to be based on immediately available information about the particular stimulus under consideration, as well as on higher-level inferences about the stimulus class as a whole. Implications for future modeling efforts are discussed.

Propagating and Debunking Conspiracy Theories on Twitter During the 2015-2016 Zika Virus Outbreak.

Abstract The present study investigates the characteristics of discussion of conspiracy theories about the Zika virus outbreak of 2015–16 on Twitter. Content and social network analysis of a dataset of 25,162 original Tweets about Zika virus conspiracy theories showed that relative to debunking messages, conspiracy theories spread through a more decentralized network, are more likely to invoke supposedly knowledgeable authorities in making arguments, and ask more rhetorical questions. These trends can be understood in the context of previous work on conspiracy theories, including the “just asking questions” style of rhetoric, the importance of sourcing and authority, and the tendency to simultaneously consider many different potential conspiracies that might underlie an important topic or event.