Michael Jefferson

Hydrocarbons and the evolution of human culture

Most of the progress in human culture has required the exploitation of energy resources. About 100 years ago, the major source of energy shifted from recent solar to fossil hydrocarbons, including liquid and gaseous petroleum. Technology has generally led to a greater use of hydrocarbon fuels for most human activities, making civilization vulnerable to decreases in supply. At this time our knowledge is not sufficient for us to choose between the different estimates of, for example, resources of conventional oil.

Global energy perspectives: A summary of the joint study by the international institute for applied systems analysis and world energy council

This article reports a study on Global Energy Perspectives to 2050 and Beyond conducted jointly by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the World Energy Council (WEC). All together three cases of economic and energy developments were developed that sprawl into six scenarios of energy supply alternatives extending until the end of the 21st century. The internal consistency of the scenarios was assessed with the help of formal energy models. The study took close account of world population prospects, economic growth, technological advance, the energy resource base, environmental implications from the local to the global level, financing requirements, and the future prospects of both fossil and nonfossil fuels and industries. Although no analysis can turn an uncertain future into a sure thing, the study identifies patterns that are robust across a purposely broad range of scenarios. The study also enables to relate alternative near-term research and development, technology, economic, and environmental policies to the possible long-term divergence of energy systems structures. Due to the long lead times involved in the turnover of capital stock and infrastructures of the energy system, policies would need to be implemented now in order to initiate long-term structural changes in the energy system that would, however, become significant only after the year 2020.

erratum: Hydrocarbons and the evolution of human culture

This corrects the article DOI: nature02130