R. Popper

How are foresight methods selected

Purpose – This paper addresses a challenging topic, which in both academic and professional literatures has been widely discussed but mainly from one single angle – that is, how to select foresight methods. From that point of view researchers and consultants promote (even if unintentionally) the use of particular methods. Here the question of selection is raised from a different perspective: how are foresight methods selected?Design/methodology/approach – The guiding “theory” is that a better understanding of the fundamental attributes of foresight methods and their linkages to the core phases of a foresight process, together with the identification of possible patterns in the selection of methods, will provide useful insights as to how the selection of methods is carried out.Findings – So far the selection of foresight methods has been dominated by the intuition, insight, impulsiveness and – sometimes – inexperience or irresponsibility of practitioners and organisers. This paper reveals that the selectio...

Comparing foresight “style” in six world regions

– The paper sets out to explore the nature and degree of variation in foresight “style” across six world regions. The underlying hypothesis is that differences in regional context – in terms of political, socio‐economic, and cultural conditions – will affect foresight “style”. At the same time, a secondary hypothesis acknowledges that policy tool transfer and international learning might soften the influence of contextual conditions., – Using the data collected for more than 800 foresight exercises in six world regions, the paper considers eight different dimensions of foresight “style”, including domain coverage, time horizon, target groups, and methods used. It interprets regional differences (and similarities) with reference to dominant political and economic traditions in each region. In so doing, it tests the hypothesis that foresight “style” is influenced by regional context., – The analysis suggests that some foresight “style” dimensions vary between regions more than others. For example, there is marked variation in the domain areas covered by foresight across the world, while some regions appear to prefer particular methods over others. Time horizons also vary. For other dimensions, such as participation levels and the identity of target groups, there is a good deal of similarity. Thus, some dimensions of “style”, at least at the aggregate level, seem to be more influenced by regional context than others., – The paper is unique in being the first publication to survey such a large sample of foresight activity across a wide part of the globe.

Editors' introduction to the European Foresight Monitoring Network

Purpose – This paper seeks to provide an introduction to the special issue of foresight, dedicated to the European Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN).Design/methodology/approach – The paper sets out the projects rationale and its scope and approach.Findings – The paper presents some of the achievements of the EFMN, as well as some of its limitations.Originality/value – The paper considers how the EFMN might be sustained and further developed over the longer term. It also provides a brief description of the main papers in the special issue.

Mapping Futures Studies

Rafael Popper - Research Fellow, Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, University of Manchester, UK. E-mail: rafael.popper@manchester.ac.ukAddress: Booth Street West, Manchester, M15 6PB, UK.In recent decades Foresight and other forward-looking activities (FLA) gained ground as a tool of science, technology and innovation (STI) policy. The number of FLA studies is globally rising. To some extent, foresight is governed by context-depended issues; however there are also common features in the objectives, methodology, and recommendations made. Mapping allows codifying and analyzing a bulk of FLA experiences gained worldwide. This in turn will contribute to enhancing performance of such activities and therefore of STI policy as a whole. The paper provides rationales for Futures Studies mapping, considers related opportunities and challenges, reviews lessons learned from early mapping efforts. It focuses on the large-scale EU-funded mapping project “European Foresight Platform” (EFP). Using this project as illustration, the paper describes mapping routines, the selected indicators of mapped Foresight initiatives, including their objectives, participants, target groups, methodologies, outcomes and recommendations. It discusses the potential and the limitations of particular mapping tools as well as possible applications of gained knowledge. Basing on mapping results, policy-makers, for example, are able to identify gaps to be addressed with relevant policy tools, Mapping also allows Foresight practitioners to develop strategies for further research and shape expert networks for their implementation.

Towards a more responsible sustainable innovation assessment and management culture in Europe

Abstract This article presents new concepts and practical approaches resulting from the piloting of CASI-F - a common framework for the assessment and management of sustainable innovation (SI). Based on lessons learned from action research carried out in the context of the EU funded CASI project, the article focuses on the meta-analysis of 46 action roadmaps produced with 43 innovators supporting the practical application of CASI-F. The applied methodology helped to demonstrate that a multi-level and multi-actor advice approach promotes a shift towards improved understanding of innovations-related critical issues (barriers, drivers, opportunities and threats) and stakeholders’ relations, as well as their management, thus promoting the sustainable resilience and transformation of socio-technical systems. This paper first reflects on how we arrived to managerial lessons from the actions roadmaps and how could these lessons be used to assess the current state of affairs and potential way forward for European initiatives and instruments promoting sustainable innovation.