Michael T. Burrows

The Pace of Shifting Climate in Marine and Terrestrial Ecosystems

Ecologically relevant measures of contemporary global climate change can predict species distributions and vulnerabilities. Climate change challenges organisms to adapt or move to track changes in environments in space and time. We used two measures of thermal shifts from analyses of global temperatures over the past 50 years to describe the pace of climate change that species should track: the velocity of climate change (geographic shifts of isotherms over time) and the shift in seasonal timing of temperatures. Both measures are higher in the ocean than on land at some latitudes, despite slower ocean warming. These indices give a complex mosaic of predicted range shifts and phenology changes that deviate from simple poleward migration and earlier springs or later falls. They also emphasize potential conservation concerns, because areas of high marine biodiversity often have greater velocities of climate change and seasonal shifts.

Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity

The reorganization of patterns of species diversity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans, are not yet fully understood or appreciated. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global and local scales. Here we use the velocity of climate change to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref. 7) and from 2006 to 2100, and use the properties of these trajectories to infer changes in species distributions. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as attractors for trajectories, creating source and sink areas for local climatic conditions. Climate source areas indicate where locally novel conditions are not connected to areas where similar climates previously occurred, and are thereby inaccessible to climate migrants tracking isotherms: 16% of global surface area for 1960 to 2009, and 34% of ocean for the ‘business as usual’ climate scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) representing continued use of fossil fuels without mitigation. Climate sink areas are where climate conditions locally disappear, potentially blocking the movement of climate migrants. Sink areas comprise 1.0% of ocean area and 3.6% of land and are prevalent on coasts and high ground. Using this approach to infer shifts in species distributions gives global and regional maps of the expected direction and rate of shifts of climate migrants, and suggests areas of potential loss of species richness.

Threats and knowledge gaps for ecosystem services provided by kelp forests: a northeast Atlantic perspective

Kelp forests along temperate and polar coastlines represent some of most diverse and productive habitats on the Earth. Here, we synthesize information from >60 years of research on the structure and functioning of kelp forest habitats in European waters, with particular emphasis on the coasts of UK and Ireland, which represents an important biogeographic transition zone that is subjected to multiple threats and stressors. We collated existing data on kelp distribution and abundance and reanalyzed these data to describe the structure of kelp forests along a spatial gradient spanning more than 10° of latitude. We then examined ecological goods and services provided by kelp forests, including elevated secondary production, nutrient cycling, energy capture and flow, coastal defense, direct applications, and biodiversity repositories, before discussing current and future threats posed to kelp forests and identifying key knowledge gaps. Recent evidence unequivocally demonstrates that the structure of kelp forests in the NE Atlantic is changing in response to climate- and non-climate-related stressors, which will have major implications for the structure and functioning of coastal ecosystems. However, kelp-dominated habitats along much of the NE Atlantic coastline have been chronically understudied over recent decades in comparison with other regions such as Australasia and North America. The paucity of field-based research currently impedes our ability to conserve and manage these important ecosystems. Targeted observational and experimental research conducted over large spatial and temporal scales is urgently needed to address these knowledge gaps.

Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

Contemporary impacts of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems are increasingly being recognized. Documenting the extent of these impacts requires quantitative tools for analyses of ecological observations to distinguish climate impacts in noisy data and to understand interactions between climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer-reviewed articles that examined relationships between climate change and marine ecological variables. Of the articles with time series data (n = 186), 75% used statistics to test for a dependency of ecological variables on climate variables. We identified several common weaknesses in statistical approaches, including marginalizing other important non-climate drivers of change, ignoring temporal and spatial autocorrelation, averaging across spatial patterns and not reporting key metrics. We provide a list of issues that need to be addressed to make inferences more defensible, including the consideration of (i) data limitations and the comparability of data sets; (ii) alternative mechanisms for change; (iii) appropriate response variables; (iv) a suitable model for the process under study; (v) temporal autocorrelation; (vi) spatial autocorrelation and patterns; and (vii) the reporting of rates of change. While the focus of our review was marine studies, these suggestions are equally applicable to terrestrial studies. Consideration of these suggestions will help advance global knowledge of climate impacts and understanding of the processes driving ecological change.

Long-term changes in the geographic distribution and population structures of Osilinus lineatus (Gastropoda: Trochidae) in Britain and Ireland

Since the rate of global climate change began to accelerate in the 1980s, the coastal seas of Britain have warmed by up to 1°C. Locations close to the northern range edges of a southern trochid gastropod Osilinus lineatus in Britain previously surveyed in the 1950s and 1980s were resurveyed during 2002–2004 to determine whether changes in the success of near-limit populations had occurred during the period of climate warming. Between the 1980s and the 2000s, the range limits had extended by up to 55 km. Populations sampled over a latitudinal extent of 4 degrees from northern limits towards the centre of the range showed synchronous increases in abundance throughout the years sampled, suggesting a large-scale factor such as climate was driving the observed changes. These increases in abundance and changes in range limits are likely to have occurred via increased recruitment success in recent years.

TEMPORAL PATTERNS OF MOVEMENT IN JUVENILE FLATFISHES AND THEIR PREDATORS - UNDERWATER TELEVISION OBSERVATIONS

Underwater television cameras were used to observe the movements of bottom-living animals in the intertidal and shallow subtidal zones of a sandy shore over sixteen 24-h periods in the summers of (1991) and (1992). Juvenile (O-group) flatfishes, predominantly Pleuronectes platessa L. with some Limanda limanda (L.), were only seen moving on the bottom by day, with most observed at high water and just before sunset. Their movements were directed offshore in the morning and onshore in the afternoon. They also tended to move onshore with the flood tide and offshore with the ebb. These fishes may use midwater swimming for intertidal migration by night because none was seen moving on the bottom at night. Potential predators of O-group flatfishes, cod Gadus morhua L., crab Carcinus maenas (L.) and the brown shrimp Crangon crangon (L.), were most often seen moving on the bottom at night. Crangon, Carcinus and I-group flatfishes were seen in similar numbers in the subtidal and intertidal zones, while O-group flat-fishes, cod and hermit crabs Pagurus bernhardus (L.) were seen much more frequently under the subtidal camera.

The future of the northeast Atlantic benthic flora in a high CO2 world

Seaweed and seagrass communities in the northeast Atlantic have been profoundly impacted by humans, and the rate of change is accelerating rapidly due to runaway CO2 emissions and mounting pressures on coastlines associated with human population growth and increased consumption of finite resources. Here, we predict how rapid warming and acidification are likely to affect benthic flora and coastal ecosystems of the northeast Atlantic in this century, based on global evidence from the literature as interpreted by the collective knowledge of the authorship. We predict that warming will kill off kelp forests in the south and that ocean acidification will remove maerl habitat in the north. Seagrasses will proliferate, and associated epiphytes switch from calcified algae to diatoms and filamentous species. Invasive species will thrive in niches liberated by loss of native species and spread via exponential development of artificial marine structures. Combined impacts of seawater warming, ocean acidification, and increased storminess may replace structurally diverse seaweed canopies, with associated calcified and noncalcified flora, with simple habitats dominated by noncalcified, turf-forming seaweeds.

Responses of marine organisms to climate change across oceans

Climate change is driving changes in the physical and chemical properties of the ocean that have consequences for marine ecosystems. Here, we review evidence for the responses of marine life to recent climate change across ocean regions, from tropical seas to polar oceans. We consider observed changes in calcification rates, demography, abundance, distribution and phenology of marine species. We draw on a database of observed climate change impacts on marine species, supplemented with evidence in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We discuss factors that limit or facilitate species’ responses, such as fishing pressure, the availability of prey, habitat, light and other resources, and dispersal by ocean currents. We find that general trends in species responses are consistent with expectations from climate change, including poleward and deeper distributional shifts, advances in spring phenology, declines in calcification and increases in the abundance of warm-water species. The volume and type of evidence of species responses to climate change is variable across ocean regions and taxonomic groups, with much evidence derived from the heavily-studied north Atlantic Ocean. Most investigations of marine biological impacts of climate change are of the impacts of changing temperature, with few observations of effects of changing oxygen, wave climate, precipitation (coastal waters) or ocean acidification. Observations of species responses that have been linked to anthropogenic climate change are widespread, but are still lacking for some taxonomic groups (e.g., phytoplankton, benthic invertebrates, marine mammals).

Variation in Foraging Behaviour Among Individuals and Populations of Dogwhelks, Nucella lapillus: Natural Constraints on Energy Intake

SUMMARY (1) The behaviour of dogwhelks, Nucella lapillus (L.), predatory gastropods of rocky shores, was quantified by tracking populations of tagged individuals at two sites over three periods of 4-6 weeks. The dogwhelks fed upon mussels, Mytilus edulis L., or barnacles, Semibalanus balanoides (L.). Prey consumption and use of refuges by individuals were recorded on each daytime low tide. Variation among diets thus characterized was analysed to determine the effects on foraging behaviour of locality and previous experience of prey, and to compare observed behaviour with predictions of Optimal Foraging Theory. (2) Path analysis allowed the largest source of variation among individuals to be traced to the predominant species of prey in the diet, largely reflecting availability at specific sites. Dogwhelks transplanted between sites retained a slight preference for their original prey type. (3) Diets comprised largely of mussels included fewer, larger prey and provided a greater energy intake than diets comprised largely of barnacles. Dogwhelks feeding on barnacles spent a greater proportion of time foraging and were more likely to engage in extended bouts of sequential attacks. (4) Larger dogwhelks tended to include a greater proportion of mussels in their diet and to take more, larger prey of either type, resulting in greater energy intake. Larger dogwhelks were also more likely to engage in longer foraging bouts. (5) Differences in time-budgets between individuals taking smaller, less profitable prey and those taking larger, more profitable prey are consistent with the idea of a digestion-rate constraint or the miximization of absorption rate, given an optimal rate of gut processing. Further reduction in the time spent foraging is due to sheltering in refuges during harsh conditions. Dogwhelks thus appear to be able to integrate characteristics of their internal state with those of the environment (prey availability and mortality risk) when making foraging decisions.

Mitochondrial DNA reveals multiple Northern Hemisphere introductions of Caprella mutica (Crustacea, Amphipoda)

Caprella mutica (Crustacea, Amphipoda) has been widely introduced to non‐native regions in the last 40 years. Its native habitat is sub‐boreal northeast Asia, but in the Northern Hemisphere, it is now found on both coasts of North America, and North Atlantic coastlines of Europe. Direct sequencing of mitochondrial DNA (cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene) was used to compare genetic variation in native and non‐native populations of C. mutica. These data were used to investigate the invasion history of C. mutica and to test potential source populations in Japan. High diversity (31 haplotypes from 49 individuals), but no phylogeographical structure, was identified in four populations in the putative native range. In contrast, non‐native populations showed reduced genetic diversity (7 haplotypes from 249 individuals) and informative phylogeographical structure. Grouping of C. mutica populations into native, east Pacific, and Atlantic groups explained the most among‐region variation (59%). This indicates independent introduction pathways for C. mutica to the Pacific and Atlantic coasts of North America. Two dominant haplotypes were identified in eastern and western Atlantic coastal populations, indicating several dispersal routes within the Atlantic. The analysis indicated that several introductions from multiple sources were likely to be responsible for the observed global distribution of C. mutica, but the pathways were least well defined among the Atlantic populations. The four sampled populations of C. mutica in Japan could not be identified as the direct source of the non‐native populations examined in this study. The high diversity within the Japan populations indicates that the native range needs to be assessed at a far greater scale, both within and among populations, to accurately assess the source of the global spread of C. mutica.