Michael T. Gapen

Beware of Emigrants Bearing Gifts; Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Presence of Remittances

Remittance flows are quickly surpassing private capital flows and official aid in magnitude and rate of growth, making them the single most important form of income flows into developing and emerging economies. This paper uses a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model to investigate the influence of countercyclical remittances on the conduct of fiscal and monetary policy and trace their effects on real and nominal variables in a business cycle setting. We show that remittances raise disposable income and consumption and insure against income shocks, thereby raising household welfare. However, remittances increase the correlation between labor and output, thereby producing a more volatile business cycle and increasing output and labor market risk. Optimal monetary policy in the presence of remittances deviates from the Friedman rule, highlighting the need for independent government policy instruments.

The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis: Estimating Default Risk and Economy-Wide Risk Transfer

In this paper, we examine the ability of the contingent claims approach (CCA) to identify corporate sector and economy-wide vulnerabilities. We apply the Moody`s M/Risk model, which uses aggregated CCA principles, to assess vulnerabilities retroactively in two historical country cases. The results indicate that the method may prove helpful in identifying corporate sector vulnerabilities and estimating the associated value of risk transfer across interrelated balance sheets of the corporate, financial, and public sectors.

Fiscal Sustainability in Remittance-Dependent Economies

We investigate the impact of remittances on public debt sustainability and detail how the traditional debt-to-GDP ratio can be modified to create a more accurate representation of debt sustainability for a country that receives significant remittance inflows. The main result is that inclusion of remittances into the traditional debt sustainability analysis alters the amount of fiscal adjustment required to place debt on a sustainable path. While preliminary, these results are indicative of how a one-size-fits-all stability analysis may be inappropriate when evaluating the stance of fiscal policy for countries with different balance of payments characteristics.

Solving Ramsey Problems with Nonlinear Projection Methods

This paper applies nonlinear projection methods to solve Ramsey problems in a stochastic monetary economy. The presence of nonlinear distortions in the Ramsey problem requires the use of a solution procedure which captures these effects. The nonlinear projection method, even with low-order Chebyshev polynomials as employed in this paper, is able to capture a significant portion of the Jensens inequality effects. As an example of the usefulness of nonlinear projection methods, we examine Barros (1987, 1979) conjecture that welfare gains are available from policy smoothing with debt. Increases in the volatility of distortionary monetary policy are more than offset by declines in the volatility of distortionary labor taxes so that introduction of debt is welfare enhancing.

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy with Nominal and Indexed Debt

This paper highlights the importance of debt composition in setting optimal fiscal and monetary policy over short-run business cycles and in the long run. Nominal debt as state-contingent debt can be a significant policy tool to reduce the volatility of distortionary government policy, thereby reducing macroeconomic volatility while increasing equilibrium output and consumption. The welfare gain from using nominal debt to hedge against shocks to the government budget is as large as the welfare gain from the ability to issue debt.