Michael Thrasher

Local elections in Britain

Acknowledgements 1. Local Elections - A Case of Mystery, Intrigue and Neglect 2. The evolution of Local Democracy 3. The Local Electoral System 4. Turnout in Local Elections 5. Contestation, Candidates and Incumbency 6. Party Competition in Local Elections 7. Votes, Seats and Local Electoral Outcomes 8. Major Parties and Local Elections 9. Minor Parites and Local Elections 10. Local Elections and National Politics 11. Local By-elections - Parochial Contests or National Electoral Indicators 12. Local Elections and Representations 13. Conclusions Bibliography

Turnout in English local elections—An aggregate analysis with electoral and contextual data

Abstract Analysis of survey data by Miller has identified a number of factors influencing voter participation in local government elections in Britain. Nevertheless, variations in turnout remain so great that further investigation is required. This article uses aggregate data derived from the results of county council elections since 1981 and those for the metropolitan districts since 1982. Additional data, of a social, economic and structural nature, are also used to explore variations in electoral turnout. Using multiple regression analysis produces only a modest success in predicting turnout for the more rural county authorities. In the urban metropolitan districts, however, a much higher level of turnout could be predicted from the model.

Seasonal factors, voter fatigue and the costs of voting

Abstract The impact of voting costs upon voter turnout is examined using more than 4000 British local government by-elections occurring between 1983 and 1999. Such by-elections occur in virtually every week of the year providing an opportunity to study fluctuations in electoral turnout. The analysis not only notes that voter turnout is in general decline but also identifies a separate seasonal component that affects levels of electoral participation. By-election turnout peaks in the months March–June and is at its lowest during the winter months. Voter turnout appears to be related to varying times of sunset throughout the year, suggesting that a visit to the polling station is a variable cost. A second identifiable cost is associated with the frequency of voting. The study shows that, ceteris paribus, the less time that has elapsed between a by-election and the previous election the lower the turnout. Voter fatigue, therefore, has a measurable impact on turnout.

The epidemiology of the Liberal Democrat vote

Abstract Accounting for the success of the Liberal Democrat party in recent local elections held in Britain has proved difficult. Traditionally, the electoral system has operated to disadvantage third parties but the Liberal Democrats appear successfully to have surmounted that obstacle to winning representation. Ths paper introduces the reader to issues of contemporary British electoral geography and analyses a number of factors, socio-economic, political and spatial, in terms of their contribution towards a better understanding of Liberal Democrat successes at the local government level. Compared with the vote for both the Conservative and Labour parties, that for the Liberal Democrats is not easily explained using ward level socio-economic census data. Additionally, models of uniform swing are not effective in projecting likely Liberal Democrat seat gains with the party consistently doing better than forecasted. The final part of the analysis, therefore, looks for any spatial patterns in the development and spread of the Liberal Democrat vote. The evidence suggests that Liberal Democrat victories are most likely to occur in areas neighbouring wards which the party has already won. This leads us to conjecture that there is some element of a spatial contagion effect to the Liberal Democrat vote which stems from the partys campaigning style in local elections.

Explaining Split‐Ticket Voting at the 1979 and 1997 General and Local Elections in England

Only in 1979, 1997 and 2001 have British general elections coincided with the annual local government elections. Uniquely, this study uses both survey and aggregate data to examine aspects of split-ticket voting at the simultaneous elections in 1979 and 1997. Through the use of bi- and multi-variate analysis, it suggests that ticket-splitting is a product of both voter attitudes and party strategies: although it is almost wholly confined to the less partisan, the electoral context in which those votes are being cast can play an additional and significant role in stimulating such behaviour.

Mayoral Referendums and Elections

The principle of directly elected mayors forms a key part of the Labour governments strategy to modernise local democracy and strengthen accountability. First applied to London, the government has sought to extend the institution, allowing local referendums to determine whether the public favours the principle or not. This article examines the state of public opinion regarding elected mayors before reporting on the outcome of referendums held since the 2001 general election. We then consider the results of mayoral elections, specifically addressing issues of electoral participation, legitimation and partisan support. In conclusion, we consider whether its experience with both referendums and mayoral elections may have affected the governments enthusiasm for further expansion of this institution across the local government system.

Coalition Theory and Local Government: Coalition Payoffs in Britain

Formal coalition theory has tended to ignore the existence of local government coalitions. Local government studies have tended to ignore the existence of formal coalition theory. Yet local administrations frequently comprise coalitions of parties. There is clearly a need, therefore, to bring the two areas of study together.

Participation in Local Elections

Victorian reformers charged with creating a system of local government which was both effective and democratic were adamant that community identity should lie at the heart of the policy. Without voters who could identify and recognise the community of interest in the new administrative boundaries the idea of local democracy would be a sham. A representative local government would fail if people felt insufficiently motivated to vote, to contribute to the activities necessary for a sense of civic purpose and identity and to acknowledge the legitimacy of that local authority.

Voter Support for Minor Parties

The context of support for a range of minor parties in the United Kingdom is identified using ward-level aggregate data from the 2004 European elections in London. Four parties in particular, namely Respect, Green, the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) and the British National Party (BNP), which collectively obtained 3 in 10 of all European votes cast in London and performed well at the subsequent general election in 2005, are considered. Bivariate and multivariate analyses, employing socio-economic and political variables, show that for each of the four parties there is an identifiable and reasonably welldefined ward-level context of support. Regression models help to explain around three-quarters of variance in vote support. Strong similarities are found in the context of support for the anti-European Union UKIP and the far-right, anti-immigrant BNP. Close study of the geography of support shows that while the spread of votes for minor parties is fairly homogeneous across some boroughs, in others there is a fair degree of heterogeneity.

Women in English local government, 1973–2003: getting selected, getting elected

Although women comprise over half of the UK electorate, their relatively low numbers in elected office continues. The 2005 general election saw 128 women members returned—19.8% of the House of Commons. Despite the recent upward trend the UK still ranks rather low in the Inter-Parliamentary Union’s league table of women’s representation. The situation is little better for the European Parliament where the UK lies below the EU average. In 2004 the proportion of elected women actually declined from 24.1% to 23.1%. Women’s representation is, in common with many other countries, better for sub-national units of government. Currently, women comprise up to one-third of candidates and more than a quarter of local councillors, leaving the UK midway among member states of the European Union. A similar story is found within the new devolved institutions of the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly. The UK, therefore, certainly confirms the ‘law of minority attrition’, whereby the proportion of women holding elected office decreases as the perceived importance of political office increases. Relatively speaking, local government has been enlightened in providing women with the vote and encouraging them to stand for election. Unmarried women taxpayers could vote in local elections from the 1830s onwards. By 1875, nearly half a century before they were even permitted to vote in parliamentary elections, women could be and were elected to such local authorities as Boards of Guardians. Local government has consistently provided more political career opportunities for women. A study in 1964, for example, estimated that 16% of all local election candidates were women, more than three times as many that fought parliamentary constituencies at the time. Although women’s recruitment as candidates and their electoral success has been widely studied for the UK parliament it is largely ignored at the local government level. This neglect is partly because of data availability but it also replicates the situation for other polities; national parliaments are studied but lower levels of government are overlooked. This paper partly redresses that imbalance, using newly available local electoral data to track and analyse aspects of the recruitment and retention of women candidates and councillors since the early seventies. In order to set this research within the broader literature on women’s recruitment we provide a brief review of existing research on national legislatures. Following this we