Michael Tjernström

Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming

Near-surface warming in the Arctic has been almost twice as large as the global average over recent decades—a phenomenon that is known as the ‘Arctic amplification’. The underlying causes of this temperature amplification remain uncertain. The reduction in snow and ice cover that has occurred over recent decades may have played a role. Climate model experiments indicate that when global temperature rises, Arctic snow and ice cover retreats, causing excessive polar warming. Reduction of the snow and ice cover causes albedo changes, and increased refreezing of sea ice during the cold season and decreases in sea-ice thickness both increase heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere. Changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation, as well as cloud cover, have also been proposed to cause Arctic temperature amplification. Here we examine the vertical structure of temperature change in the Arctic during the late twentieth century using reanalysis data. We find evidence for temperature amplification well above the surface. Snow and ice feedbacks cannot be the main cause of the warming aloft during the greater part of the year, because these feedbacks are expected to primarily affect temperatures in the lowermost part of the atmosphere, resulting in a pattern of warming that we only observe in spring. A significant proportion of the observed temperature amplification must therefore be explained by mechanisms that induce warming above the lowermost part of the atmosphere. We regress the Arctic temperature field on the atmospheric energy transport into the Arctic and find that, in the summer half-year, a significant proportion of the vertical structure of warming can be explained by changes in this variable. We conclude that changes in atmospheric heat transport may be an important cause of the recent Arctic temperature amplification.

Stable Atmospheric Boundary Layers and Diurnal Cycles: Challenges for Weather and Climate Models

The representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is an important part of weather and climate models and impacts many applications such as air quality and wind energy. Over the years, the performance in modeling 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed has improved but errors are still significant. This is in particular the case under clear skies and low wind speed conditions at night as well as during winter in stably stratified conditions over land and ice. In this paper, the authors review these issues and provide an overview of the current understanding and model performance. Results from weather forecast and climate models are used to illustrate the state of the art as well as findings and recommendations from three intercomparison studies held within the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study (GABLS). Within GABLS, the focus has been on the examination of the representation of the stable boundary layer and the diurnal cycle over land in clear-sky conditions. For thi...

Can Ice-Nucleating Aerosols Affect Arctic Seasonal Climate?

Mixed-phase stratus clouds are ubiquitous in the Arctic and play an important role in climate in this region. However, climate and regional models have generally proven unsuccessful at simulating Arctic cloudiness, particularly during the colder months. Specifically, models tend to underpredict the amount of liquid water in mixed-phase clouds. The Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiments (M-PACE), conducted from late September through October 2004 in the vicinity of the Department of Energys Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope of Alaska field site, focused on characterizing low-level Arctic stratus clouds. Ice nuclei (IN) measurements were made using a continuous-flow ice thermal diffusion chamber aboard the University of North Dakotas Citation II aircraft. These measurements indicated IN concentrations that were significantly lower than those used in many models. Using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), we show that these low IN concentrations, as well as inadequate parameteri...

The Summertime Arctic Atmosphere: Meteorological Measurements during the Arctic Ocean Experiment 2001

An atmospheric boundary layer experiment into the high Arctic was carried out on the Swedish icebreaker Oden during the summer of 2001, with the primary boundary layer observations obtained while t ...

Highlights of Coastal Waves 1996

Some of the highlights of an experiment designed to study coastal atmospheric phenomena along the California coast (Coastal Waves 1996 experiment) are described. This study was designed to address ...

The Near-Neutral Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer with No Surface Shearing Stress: A Case Study

Abstract Data from a marine coastal experiment over the Baltic Sea, comprising airborne measurements and mast measurements, have been used to highlight the turbulence dynamics of a case with most unusual flow characteristics. The boundary layer had a depth of about 1200 m. The thermal stratification was near neutral, with small positive heat flux below 300 m and equally small negative heat flux above. The entire situation lasted about 6 hours. Turbulence levels were unexpectedly high in view of the fact that momentum flux was negligible (in fact positive) in the layers near the surface, and buoyancy flux was also small. The turbulence was found to scale with the height of the boundary layer, giving rise to velocity spectra having the shape of those characteristic of convectively mixed boundary layers. Analysis of the turbulence budget for the entire planetary boundary layer (PBL) revealed that energy was produced from shear instability in the uppermost parts of the PBL and was distributed to the lower par...

How Well Do Regional Climate Models Reproduce Radiation and Clouds in the Arctic? An Evaluation of ARCMIP Simulations

Downwelling radiation in six regional models from the Arctic Regional Climate Model Intercomparison (ARCMIP) project is systematically biased negative in comparison with observations from the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment, although the correlations with observations are relatively good. In this paper, links between model errors and the representation of clouds in these models are investigated. Although some modeled cloud properties, such as the cloud water paths, are reasonable in a climatological sense, the temporal correlation of model cloud properties with observations is poor. The vertical distribution of cloud water is distinctly different among the different models; some common features also appear. Most models underestimate the presence of high clouds, and, although the observed preference for low clouds in the Arctic is present in most of the models, the modeled low clouds are too thin and are displaced downward. Practically all models show a preference to locate the lowest cloud base at the lowest model grid point. In some models this happens also to be where the observations show the highest occurrence of the lowest cloud base; it is not possible to determine if this result is just a coincidence. Different factors contribute to model surface radiation errors. For longwave radiation in summer, a negative bias is present both for cloudy and clear conditions, and intermodel differences are smaller when clouds are present. There is a clear relationship between errors in cloud-base temperature and radiation errors. In winter, in contrast, clear-sky cases are modeled reasonably well, but cloudy cases show a very large intermodel scatter with a significant bias in all models. This bias likely results from a complete failure in all of the models to retain liquid water in cold winter clouds. All models overestimate the cloud attenuation of summer solar radiation for thin and intermediate clouds, and some models maintain this behavior also for thick clouds.

Analysis of the turbulence structure of a marine low-level jet

Four aircraft measurement sets made in late May 1989 within low level jets over the Baltic Sea have been analyzed to estimate the turbulence energy budget. It is concluded that the jets had the same origin as found in an earlier study from the same general area: inertial oscillation caused by frictional decoupling when relatively warm air flows out over much colder water.In order to combine budget estimates from the four flights to form a representative average, self-preservation similarity was assumed. When the terms were made nondimensional with the proper scale combination, the largest terms in all four runs were of order one, indicating that the scaling is physically sound.Three terms were found to dominate the turbulence energy budget: shear production, dissipation and pressure transport. The latter was obtained as remainder term, since local time rate of change and advection terms were found to be of negligible magnitude. Shear production was found in a narrow layer above the jet core and in a much deeper layer below it. The pressure transport term was a gain in this layer as well, helping to keep the layer below the jet well mixed. This is in agreement with results from aircraft measurements in the low level jet and monsoon boundary layer over the Arabian Sea.It is concluded that development of the inertial jet downwind of a coastline is of fundamental importance for exchange of momentum at the sea surface in conditions when relatively warm air is advected over cold water. The jet produces turbulence that promotes mixing in the lower layers, which sharpens the shear below the jet core, so that mixing becomes even more effective. Turbulence brought down to the surface by the pressure transport term is likely to be of the ‘inactive’ type, which does not produce shear stress. Through the above-mentioned process it is, however, instrumental in promoting the mechanism that eventually produces ‘active turbulence’, the carrier of momentum.

Springtime atmospheric energy transport and the control of Arctic summer sea-ice extent

The summer sea-ice extent in the Arctic has decreased in recent decades, a feature that has become one of the most distinct signals of the continuing climate change. However, the interannual variab ...

Can Marine Micro-organisms Influence Melting of the Arctic Pack Ice?

The Arctic Ocean Expedition of 2001 (AOE-2001) to the central Arctic mostly north of latitude 85°N was conducted to study marine life forms and their products in water and ice, how their products may get into the air, the evolution of the particles produced, and their growth up to sizes large enough for activation into clouds. The expedition also investigated whether these naturally generated particles and clouds constitute a positive or negative climate feedback upon temperature forcing, as schematically shown in Figure 1. Indeed, biological activity of the open lead surface micro-layer was found to strongly influence particle production over the pack ice region, and this would influence cloud properties there. Similar processes transferring particulates from the surface micro-layer to the air—bubble bursting—should be operative over the worlds oceans. So, can marine micro-organisms influence the melting of the Arctic pack ice? The answer must be yes, but to determine whether that influence is significant or not, we have to contend with many unknown factors. For example, will biological activity and airborne particle production increase or decrease with melting of the pack ice, and will resultant changes in warmer oceans oppose or reinforce the Arctic changes? Will cloud cover and the feeble mixing between surface and higher air remain unchanged? To have identified a possible influence on climate change is important, but assessing the extent of that influence will be a far harder problem. (Less)