Michel Juillard

Accuracy of stochastic perturbation methods: The case of asset pricing models

This paper investigates the accuracy of a perturbation method in approximating the solution to stochastic equilibrium models under rational expectations. As a benchmark model, we use a version of asset pricing models proposed by Burnside [1988] which admits a closed-form solution while not making the assumptions of certainty equivalence. We then check the accuracy of perturbation methods -extended to a stochastic environment- against the closed form solution. Second an especially fourth order expansions are then found to be more efficient than standard linear approximation, as they are able to account for higher order moments of the distribution.

An algorithm competition: First-order iterations versus Newton-based techniques

Abstract The development and use of forward-looking macromodels in policy making institutions has proceeded at a much slower pace than what was predicted in the early 1980s. An important reason for this is that researchers have not had access to robust and efficient solution techniques for solving nonlinear forward-looking models. This paper discusses the properties of alternative algorithms for solving MULTIMOD, the IMFs multicountry model of the world economy. Relative to traditional first-order algorithms in use today, we find that Newton-based techniques are considerably faster and much less prone to simulation failure.

A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy

This is the first of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the U.S. economy. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. After developing a benchmark model without financial-real linkages, we introduce such linkages into the model and compare the results with and without linkages.

A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices

This is the third of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies that incorporates oil prices and allows us to trace out the effects of shocks to oil prices. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.

A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model

This is the second of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.

Scenario for Global Aging - An Investigation with the INGENUE 2 World Model

This paper explores the consequences of pension reforms in Western Europe in a world economy setting. Whereas various economic and social consequences of population ageing have been investigated in OECD countries, very few analyses have explicitly taken the worldwide aspect of the problem into account. In order to do so, this report relies on the latest version of the INGENUE World Model (2). This applied, international, overlapping-generations, general-equilibrium model of the world economy has been built specifically to analyse the international capital flows and growth dynamics induced by the different degrees of population ageing taking place in the various regions of the world. After a description of the major features of the baseline scenario of the model for the world economy over the next 50 years, the authors explore the domestic and international macroeconomic consequences of two scenarios of pension reform in Western Europe as well as their intergenerational distributional effects. These scenarios are then compared with a specific migration scenario, making use of the new features of the INGENUE 2 model.

Avoiding Dark Corners : A Robust Monetary Policy Framework for the United States

The Fed has taken several steps towards strengthening its monetary framework over the past several years. Those steps have supported the Fed’s efforts to stimulate the economy through forward guidance despite being constrained by having policy rates at zero. We show that an optimal control approach to monetary policy, which includes the publication of a baseline forecast and a description of the uncertainties around that outlook, combined with an improvement in the Fed’s communications toolkit, could further enhance the effectiveness of Fed policy. In the current conjuncture, such a risk management approach to monetary policy would result in both a later liftoff of policy rates and a modest, but planned, overshooting of inflation.

Inflation-Forecast Targeting: Applying the Principle of Transparency

Many central banks in emerging and advanced economies have adopted an inflation-forecast targeting (IFT) approach to monetary policy, in order to successfully establish a stable, low-inflation environment. To support policy making, each has developed a structured system of forecasting and policy analysis appropriate to its needs. A common component is a model-based forecast with an endogenous policy interest rate path. The approach is characterized, among other things, by transparent communications - some IFT central banks go so far as to publish their policy interest rate projection. Some elements of this regime, although a work still in progress, are worthy of consideration by central banks that have not yet officially adopted full-fledged inflation targeting.

A Robust and Efficient Method for Solving Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models

The development and use of forward-looking macro models in policymaking institutions has proceeded at a pace much slower than predicted in the early 1980s. An important reason is that researchers have not had access to robust and efficient solution techniques for solving nonlinear forward-looking models. This paper discusses the properties of a new algorithm that is used for solving MULTIMOD, the IMF’s multicountry model of the world economy. This algorithm is considerably faster and much less prone to simulation failures than to traditional algorithms and can also be used to solve individual country models of the same size.

Non-Uniform Wage-Staggering: European Evidence and Monetary Policy Implications

In many countries, wage changes tend to be clustered in the beginning of the year, with wages being set for fixed durations of typically one year. This has been, in particular, documented in recent years for European countries using microeconomic data. Motivated by this evidence we build a model of uneven wage staggering, embedded in a standard DSGE model of the euro area, and investigate the monetary policy consequences of non-synchronised wage-setting. The model has the potential to generate responses to monetary policy shocks that differ according to the timing of the shock. Using a realistic calibration of the seasonality in wage-setting, based on a wide survey of European firms, the quantitative difference across quarters turns out however to be moderate. Relatedly, we obtain that the optimal monetary policy rule does not vary much across quarters.