Vincent Touzé

Scenario for Global Aging - An Investigation with the INGENUE 2 World Model

This paper explores the consequences of pension reforms in Western Europe in a world economy setting. Whereas various economic and social consequences of population ageing have been investigated in OECD countries, very few analyses have explicitly taken the worldwide aspect of the problem into account. In order to do so, this report relies on the latest version of the INGENUE World Model (2). This applied, international, overlapping-generations, general-equilibrium model of the world economy has been built specifically to analyse the international capital flows and growth dynamics induced by the different degrees of population ageing taking place in the various regions of the world. After a description of the major features of the baseline scenario of the model for the world economy over the next 50 years, the authors explore the domestic and international macroeconomic consequences of two scenarios of pension reform in Western Europe as well as their intergenerational distributional effects. These scenarios are then compared with a specific migration scenario, making use of the new features of the INGENUE 2 model.

Automatic Balancing Mechanisms in Practice: What Lessons for Pension Policy Makers?

Despite numerous reforms and the introduction of automatic or semi-automatic adjustment mechanisms, pension system future solvency is not guaranteed. Then, setting up an automatic balancing mechanism can offer several advantages. This article proposes to detail the specific properties of various adjustment rules prevailing in different countries to see to what extent their understanding may be helpful to determine public choices ensuring sustainable retirement systems. Several of such adjustment rules are possible. Three rules will get our attention. The American case is radical. The prohibition to resort to public debt, the so-called “fiscal cliff”, forces the balance by a drastic reduction of pensions whenever the reserve fund is exhausted. The underlying idea is that this socially unacceptable perspective will force the parliament to take measures to restore solvency. The Swedish approach relies on an adjustment through the general level of pensions to guarantee a notional asset/liability ratio. A huge reserve fund smooths the shock associated with the aging of the population. The Canadian approach is based on an “inadequate rate provision” which increases the contribution rate and a pension freeze as long as the federal and provincial finance ministers do not reach an agreement.