Michela Mariani

ENSO controls interannual fire activity in southeast Australia

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main mode controlling the variability in the ocean-atmosphere system in the South Pacific. While the ENSO influence on rainfall regimes in the South Pacific is well documented, its role in driving spatiotemporal trends in fire activity in this region has not been rigorously investigated. This is particularly the case for the highly flammable and densely populated southeast Australian sector, where ENSO is a major control over climatic variability. Here we conduct the first region-wide analysis of how ENSO controls fire activity in southeast Australia. We identify a significant relationship between ENSO and both fire frequency and area burnt. Critically, wavelet analyses reveal that, despite substantial temporal variability in the ENSO system, ENSO exerts a persistent and significant influence on southeast Australian fire activity. Our analysis has direct application for developing robust predictive capacity for the increasingly important efforts at fire management.

Centennial-scale trends in the Southern Annular Mode revealed by hemisphere-wide fire and hydroclimatic trends over the past 2400 years

Millennial-scale latitudinal shifts in the southern westerly winds (SWW) drive changes in Southern Ocean upwelling, leading to changes in atmospheric CO2 levels, thereby affecting the global climate and carbon cycle. Our aim here is to understand whether century-scale shifts in the SWW also drive changes in atmospheric CO2 content. We report new multiproxy lake sediment data from southwest Tasmania, Australia, that show centennial-scale changes in vegetation and fire activity over the past 2400 yr. We compare our results with existing data from southern South America and reveal synchronous and in-phase centennial-scale trends in vegetation and fire activity between southwest Tasmania and southern South America over the past 2400 yr. Interannual to centennial-scale rainfall anomalies and fire activity in both these regions are significantly correlated with shifts in the SWW associated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM; atmospheric variability of the Southern Hemisphere). Thus, we interpret the centennial-scale trends we have identified as reflecting century-scale SAM-like shifts in the SWW over the past 2400 yr. We identify covariance between our inferred century-scale shifts in the SWW and Antarctic ice core CO2 values, demonstrating that the SWW-CO2 relationship operating at a millennial scale also operates at a centennial scale through the past 2400 yr. Our results indicate a possible westerly-driven modulation of recent increases in global atmospheric CO2 content that could potentially exacerbate current greenhouse gas–related warming.

Climate Change Amplifications of Climate‐Fire Teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere

Recent changes in trend and variability of the main Southern Hemisphere climate modes are driven by a variety of factors, including increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases, changes in tropical sea-surface temperature and stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery. One of the most important implications for climatic change is its effect via climate teleconnections on natural ecosystems, water security and fire variability in proximity to populated areas, thus threatening human lives and properties. Only sparse and fragmentary knowledge of relationships between teleconnections, lightning strikes, and fire is available during the observed record within the Southern Hemisphere. This constitutes a major knowledge gap for undertaking suitable management and conservation plans. Our analysis of documentary fire records from Mediterranean and temperate regions across the Southern Hemisphere reveals a critical increased strength of climate-fire teleconnections during the onset of the 21st century including a tight coupling between lightning-ignited fire occurrences, the upward trend in the Southern Annular Mode and rising temperatures across the Southern Hemisphere.

Biogeochemical Responses to Holocene Catchment‐Lake Dynamics in the Tasmanian World Heritage Area, Australia

Environmental changes such as climate, land use, and fire activity affect terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems at multiple scales of space and time. Due to the nature of the interactions between terrestrial and aquatic dynamics, an integrated study using multiple proxies is critical for a better understanding of climate- and fire-driven impacts on environmental change. Here we present a synthesis of biological and geochemical data (pollen, spores, diatoms, micro X-ray fluorescence scanning, CN content, and stable isotopes) from Dove Lake, Tasmania, allowing us to disentangle long-term terrestrial-aquatic dynamics through the last 12 kyear. We found that aquatic dynamics at Dove Lake are tightly linked to vegetation shifts dictated by regional hydroclimatic variability in western Tasmania. A major shift in the diatom composition was detected at ca. 6 ka, and it was likely mediated by changes in regional terrestrial vegetation, charcoal, and iron accumulation. High rainforest abundance prior ca. 6 ka is linked to increased terrestrially derived organic matter delivery into the lake, higher dystrophy, anoxic bottom conditions, and lower light penetration depths. The shift to a landscape with a higher proportion of sclerophyll species following the intensification of El Nino-Southern Oscillation since ca. 6 ka corresponds to a decline in terrestrial organic matter input into Dove Lake, lower dystrophy levels, higher oxygen availability, and higher light availability for algae and littoral macrophytes. This record provides new insights on terrestrial-aquatic dynamics that could contribute to the conservation management plans in the Tasmanian World Heritage Area and in temperate high-altitude dystrophic systems elsewhere.