Michelle H. Hersh

PREDICTING BIODIVERSITY CHANGE: OUTSIDE THE CLIMATE ENVELOPE, BEYOND THE SPECIES–AREA CURVE

Efforts to anticipate threats to biodiversity take the form of species richness predictions (SRPs) based on simple correlations with current climate and habitat area. We review the major approaches that have been used for SRP, species-area curves and climate envelopes, and suggest that alternative research efforts may provide more understanding and guidance for management. Extinction prediction suffers from a number of limitations related to data and the novelty of future environments. We suggest additional attention to (1) identification of variables related to biodiversity that are diagnostic and potentially more predictable than extinction, (2) constraints on species dispersal and reproduction that will determine population persistence and range shifts, including limited sources or potential immigrants for many regions, and (3) changes in biotic interactions and phenology. We suggest combinations of observational and experimental approaches within a framework available for ingesting heterogeneous data sources. Together, these recommendations amount to a shift in emphasis from prediction of extinction numbers to identification of vulnerabilities and leading indicators of change, as well as suggestions for surveillance tools needed to evaluate important variables and the experiments likely to provide most insight.

High‐dimensional coexistence based on individual variation: a synthesis of evidence

High biodiversity of forests is not predicted by traditional models, and evidence for trade-offs those models require is limited. High-dimensional regulation (e.g., N factors to regulate N species) has long been recognized as a possible alternative explanation, but it has not be been seriously pursued, because only a few limiting resources are evident for trees, and analysis of multiple interactions is challenging. We develop a hierarchical model that allows us to synthesize data from long-term, experimental, data sets with processes that control growth, maturation, fecundity, and survival. We allow for uncertainty at all stages and variation among 26 000 individuals and over time, including 268 000 tree years, for dozens of tree species. We estimate population-level parameters that apply at the species level and the interactions among latent states, i.e., the demographic rates for each individual, every year. The former show that the traditional trade-offs used to explain diversity are not present. Demographic rates overlap among species, and they do not show trends consistent with maintenance of diversity by simple mechanisms (negative correlations and limiting similarity). However, estimates of latent states at the level of individuals and years demonstrate that species partition environmental variation. Correlations between responses to variation in time are high for individuals of the same species, but not for individuals of different species. We demonstrate that these relationships are pervasive, providing strong evidence that high- dimensional regulation is critical for biodiversity regulation.

The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States

We synthesize insights from current understanding of drought impacts at stand-to-biogeographic scales, including management options, and we identify challenges to be addressed with new research. Large stand-level shifts underway in western forests already are showing the importance of interactions involving drought, insects, and fire. Diebacks, changes in composition and structure, and shifting range limits are widely observed. In the eastern US, the effects of increasing drought are becoming better understood at the level of individual trees, but this knowledge cannot yet be confidently translated to predictions of changing structure and diversity of forest stands. While eastern forests have not experienced the types of changes seen in western forests in recent decades, they too are vulnerable to drought and could experience significant changes with increased severity, frequency, or duration in drought. Throughout the continental United States, the combination of projected large climate-induced shifts in suitable habitat from modeling studies and limited potential for the rapid migration of tree populations suggests that changing tree and forest biogeography could substantially lag habitat shifts already underway. Forest management practices can partially ameliorate drought impacts through reductions in stand density, selection of drought-tolerant species and genotypes, artificial regeneration, and the development of multistructured stands. However, silvicultural treatments also could exacerbate drought impacts unless implemented with careful attention to site and stand characteristics. Gaps in our understanding should motivate new research on the effects of interactions involving climate and other species at the stand scale and how interactions and multiple responses are represented in models. This assessment indicates that, without a stronger empirical basis for drought impacts at the stand scale, more complex models may provide limited guidance.

Individual‐scale variation, species‐scale differences: inference needed to understand diversity

As ecological data are usually analysed at a scale different from the one at which the process of interest operates, interpretations can be confusing and controversial. For example, hypothesised differences between species do not operate at the species level, but concern individuals responding to environmental variation, including competition with neighbours. Aggregated data from many individuals subject to spatio-temporal variation are used to produce species-level averages, which marginalise away the relevant (process-level) scale. Paradoxically, the higher the dimensionality, the more ways there are to differ, yet the more species appear the same. The aggregate becomes increasingly irrelevant and misleading. Standard analyses can make species look the same, reverse species rankings along niche axes, make the surprising prediction that a species decreases in abundance when a competitor is removed from a model, or simply preclude parameter estimation. Aggregation explains why niche differences hidden at the species level become apparent upon disaggregation to the individual level, why models suggest that individual-level variation has a minor impact on diversity when disaggregation shows it to be important, and why literature-based synthesis can be unfruitful. We show how to identify when aggregation is the problem, where it has caused controversy, and propose three ways to address it.

Evaluating the impacts of multiple generalist fungal pathogens on temperate tree seedling survival

Host-specific mortality driven by natural enemies is a widely discussed mechanism for explaining plant diversity. In principle, populations of plant species can be regulated by distinct host-specific natural enemies that have weak or nonexistent effects on heterospecific competitors, preventing any single species from becoming dominant and thus promoting diversity. Two of the first steps in exploring the role of natural enemies in diversity regulation are to (1) identify potential enemies and (2) evaluate their levels of host specificity by determining if interactions between any one host and its enemy have equivalent survival impacts on co-occurring host species. We developed a bioinformatics framework to evaluate impacts of potential pathogens on seedling survival, for both single and multiple infections. Importantly, we consider scenarios not only if there are specialist pathogens for each plant, but also when generalist pathogens have differential effects on multiple host species, and when co-infection has species-specific effects. We then applied this analytical framework to a field experiment using molecular techniques to detect potential fungal pathogens on co-occurring tree seedling hosts. Combinatorial complexity created by 160 plant-fungus interactions was reduced to eight combinations that affect seedling survival. Potential fungal pathogens had broad host ranges, but seedling species were each regulated by different combinations of fungi or by generalist fungi that had differential effects on multiple plant species. Soil moisture can have the potential to shift the nature of the interactions in some plant-fungal combinations from neutral to detrimental. Reassessing the assumption of single-enemy-single-host interactions broadens the mechanisms through which natural enemies can influence plant diversity.

Co-Infection of Blacklegged Ticks with Babesia microti and Borrelia burgdorferi Is Higher than Expected and Acquired from Small Mammal Hosts

Humans in the northeastern and midwestern United States are at increasing risk of acquiring tickborne diseases – not only Lyme disease, but also two emerging diseases, human granulocytic anaplasmosis and human babesiosis. Co-infection with two or more of these pathogens can increase the severity of health impacts. The risk of co-infection is intensified by the ecology of these three diseases because all three pathogens (Borrelia burgdorferi, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, and Babesia microti) are transmitted by the same vector, blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis), and are carried by many of the same reservoir hosts. The risk of exposure to multiple pathogens from a single tick bite and the sources of co-infected ticks are not well understood. In this study, we quantify the risk of co-infection by measuring infection prevalence in 4,368 questing nymphs throughout an endemic region for all three diseases (Dutchess County, NY) to determine if co-infections occur at frequencies other than predicted by independent assortment of pathogens. Further, we identify sources of co-infection by quantifying rates of co-infection on 3,275 larval ticks fed on known hosts. We find significant deviations of levels of co-infection in questing nymphs, most notably 83% more co-infection with Babesia microti and Borrelia burgdorferi than predicted by chance alone. Further, this pattern of increased co-infection was observed in larval ticks that fed on small mammal hosts, but not on meso-mammal, sciurid, or avian hosts. Co-infections involving A. phagocytophilum were less common, and fewer co-infections of A. phagocytophilum and B. microti than predicted by chance were observed in both questing nymphs and larvae fed on small mammals. Medical practitioners should be aware of the elevated risk of B. microti/B. burgdorferi co-infection.

Reservoir Competence of Vertebrate Hosts for Anaplasma phagocytophilum

Fourteen vertebrate species (10 mammals and 4 birds) were assessed for their ability to transmit Anaplasma phagocytophilum, the bacterium that causes human granulocytic anaplasmosis, to uninfected feeding ixodid ticks. Small mammals were most likely to infect ticks but all species assessed were capable of transmitting the bacterium, in contrast to previous findings.

Reservoir Competence of Wildlife Host Species for Babesia microti

Competence data will aid understanding of the spread of human babesiosis.

A predictive framework to understand forest responses to global change.

Forests are one of Earths critical biomes. They have been shown to respond strongly to many of the drivers that are predicted to change natural systems over this century, including climate, introduced species, and other anthropogenic influences. Predicting how different tree species might respond to this complex of forces remains a daunting challenge for forest ecologists. Yet shifts in species composition and abundance can radically influence hydrological and atmospheric systems, plant and animal ranges, and human populations, making this challenge an important one to address. Forest ecologists have gathered a great deal of data over the past decades and are now using novel quantitative and computational tools to translate those data into predictions about the fate of forests. Here, after a brief review of the threats to forests over the next century, one of the more promising approaches to making ecological predictions is described: using hierarchical Bayesian methods to model forest demography and simulating future forests from those models. This approach captures complex processes, such as seed dispersal and mortality, and incorporates uncertainty due to unknown mechanisms, data problems, and parameter uncertainty. After describing the approach, an example by simulating drought for a southeastern forest is offered. Finally, there is a discussion of how this approach and others need to be cast within a framework of prediction that strives to answer the important questions posed to environmental scientists, but does so with a respect for the challenges inherent in predicting the future of a complex biological system.

Pathogen regulation of plant diversity via effective specialization.

The Janzen-Connell (JC) hypothesis, one of the most influential hypotheses explaining forest diversity, is inconsistent with evidence that tree species share the same natural enemies. Through the discussion of seedling diseases from a pathogen-centered perspective, we expand the JC hypothesis to tie in host-pathogen-environment interactions at three levels: local adaptation, host specificity of the combined effect of multiple infections, and environmental modulation of disease. We present evidence from plant pathology, disease ecology, and host-parasite evolution relevant to (but not commonly associated with) forest species diversity maintenance. This expanded view of the JC hypothesis suggests ways to direct new experiments to integrate research on pathogen local adaptation, co-infection, and environmental effects on infection by using high-throughput molecular techniques and statistical models.