Mie Augier

Perspective-The Flaring of Intellectual Outliers: An Organizational Interpretation of the Generation of Novelty in the RAND Corporation

Much of intellectual history is punctuated by the flaring of intellectual outliers, small groups of thinkers who briefly, but decisively, influence the development of ideas, technologies, policies, or worldviews. To understand the flaring of intellectual outliers, we use archival and interview data from the RAND Corporation after the Second World War. We focus on five factors important to the RAND experience: 1 a belief in fundamental research as a source of practical ideas, 2 a culture of optimistic urgency, 3 the solicitation of renegade ambition, 4 the recruitment of intellectual cronies, and 5 the facilitation of the combinatorics of variety. To understand the subsequent decline of intellectual outliers at RAND, we note that success yields a sense of competence, endurance in a competitive world, and the opportunity and inclination to grow. Self-confidence, endurance, and growth produce numerous positive consequences for an organization; but for the most part, they undermine variety. Outliers and the conditions that produce them are not favored by their environments. Engineering solutions to this problem involve extending time and space horizons, providing false information about the likelihoods of positive returns from exploration, buffering exploratory activities from the pressures of efficiency, and protecting exploration from analysis by connecting it to dictates of identities.

Defense spending and economic growth: evidence from China, 1952–2012

This paper examines whether defense expenditures contributed to economic growth in China for the 1952–2012 period. We examine the contribution of defense to economic growth using recently published official data on economic activity, defense, and government expenditures. We employ the Feder-Ram and augmented Solow models of economic growth to explore the defense-growth relationship. The Feder-Ram model appears to poorly explain economic growth in China. The augmented Solow model suggests, however, that a 1% increase in defense expenditures raises the economic growth rate by approximately 0.15–0.19%.

Thinking about War and Peace: Andrew Marshall and the Early Development of the Intellectual Foundations for Net Assessment

This article discusses some of the background and early intellectual influences of Andrew Marshall and the development of the net assessment framework. In particular, it focuses on some of the intellectual foundations for net assessment, key characteristics, and how the style, vision, and ideas of Andrew Marshall have been and continue to be influential for performing net assessment. While focusing mostly on the intellectual/biographical aspects of Marshalls ideas and thoughts, the topic demonstrates significant scholarly implications for current and future strategists, such as the significance of interdisciplinary research for strategic thinking (such as that conducted by the RAND Corporation in the 1950s and 1960s) and the importance of diagnosis in strategy.

The fog of strategy: Some organizational perspectives on strategy and the strategic management challenges in the changing competitive environment

ABSTRACT The purpose of this article is to discuss some conceptions of strategy (and why it is difficult) and the need for a long-term perspective on strategy (including carefully studying competitors/opponents), and to emphasize the organizational nature of strategy (most strategies are developed by and implemented in organizations). We offer elements of an organizational framework for thinking strategically about national security, and some thoughts about implications for the education of future strategists.

A Re-appreciation of Charlie Hitch and his Contributions to Economics, Security, and the Management of Organizations

Abstract This paper discusses central ideas in the work of Charles Hitch. He is known for his pioneering contributions to defense economics and ‘systems analysis’ and for his introducing program budgeting in McNamara’s Pentagon. We discuss the evolution of his work and ideas, and how his views on systems analysis were influenced by his broader interest in human and organizational behavior. The paper also emphasizes Hitch’s skills as leader and manager of organizations (in particular as the head of the economics department at RAND).