Robert M. McNab

Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth

This paper reviews the current knowledge on an issue of increasing policy interest: what impact fiscal decentralization has on economic growth. Fiscal decentralization may indeed have a direct impact on economic growth but the theoretical underpinnings for this relationship remain largely undeveloped. The absence of an adequate theoretical framework has undermined the validity of the empirical work on this subject. A fair summary of the empirical search for a direct relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth is that it remains an open question. Much less attention has been devoted in the literature to the indirect channels through which fiscal decentralization may affect economic growth, through the impact of fiscal decentralization on economic efficiency, the regional distribution of resources, and macroeconomic stability. This paper explorers the nature of these links and concludes with some thoughts and policy advice.

Corruption, governance, investment and growth in emerging markets

The article investigates the potential impact of corruption on economic growth by examining the effect that corruption may have on several significant determinants of economic growth, namely, investment in human, private and public capital, and on governance. Our theoretical approach allows for corruption to influence economic growth directly and indirectly through different investment and governance channels. All previous empirical work on this issue has been based on national income and product accounts (NIPA) data, which do not normally break down gross domestic investment into its private and public sector, and if they do, they misclassify investment by public enterprises as private investment, potentially biasing empirical findings. In this article we use a data set from the International Finance Corporation that bypasses these problems. We find that the impact of corruption on the level of public investment appears to be more ambiguous than it has been found in the previous literature. We, however, find that the impact of corruption on the accumulation of private capital is significantly more damaging than what has been previously found. We also find that the impact of corruption on governance is unambiguously negative, which further deters economic growth. 1The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not represent the official policy of the Naval Postgraduate School, the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, or the United States Government. The usual disclaimers apply.

Implementing the GPRA: Examining the Prospects for Performance Budgeting in the Federal Government

The Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) is the latest in a series of attempts to introduce performance-based management and budgeting techniques at the federal level in the United States. In the past, these attempts largely failed due to administrative complexities, lack of investment in managerial, accounting, and information systems, and the absence of institutional incentives to promote gains in economic efficiency. Whereas we find the objectives of the GPRA laudable, we question whether this current incarnation of performance budgeting can succeed in transforming the traditional focus of federal budgeting from annual appropriations and obligations to multiyear outputs and outcomes.

Multi-Year Budgeting: A Review of International Practices and Lessons for Developing and Transitional Economies

In recent years many developed countries have moved to develop their annual budget process in astrategic multi-year framework. While a common feature of multi-year budgeting approaches is theinclusion of revenue forecasts and expenditures estimates for two or three years beyond the currentyear, multi-year budget practices vary substantially between countries. This paper reviews multi-yearbudgeting practices in six developed countries (Australia, Austria, Germany, New Zealand, the UnitedKingdom and the United States) and attempts to draw some lesson from this experience for thepotential use of multi-year budgeting by developing and transitional countries. We draw five lessons forthe budget processes of developing and transitional economies: (1) a multi-year dimension could be avaluable fiscal policy and management tool for developing and transitional countries; (2) the approachchosen in each developing or transitional economy should reflect the country’s policy objectives, itsunique budget institutions and traditions, and its administrative capabilities; (3) the introduction of amulti-year budget dimension is a gradual process; (4) the multi-year budget should be used toencourage the constructive involvement of line ministries in the budget process; and (5) the usefulness ofthe multi-year budget approach will crucially depend on the reliability and accuracy of the medium termbudget estimates.

Trade Policy, Export Expansion, Human Capital and Growth

This paper empirically investigates the impact of trade policy on export expansion and on GDP growth in developing countries while controlling for the human capital stock and the initial level of development. By using a simultaneous system estimation we unite the approach found in the export expansion and growth literature with the approach found in papers that estimate the effect of trade policy on growth, while also making several improvements in the estimation of the underlying relationships. The results obtained from our estimation are more credible because of these improvements and therefore have stronger policy implications. We find that outward-oriented trade policies substantially and significantly impact growth in developing countries not only by directly enhancing exports but also through a feedback (or multiplier) effect.

Tax Reform in Transition Economies: Experiences and Lessons

As the governments of countries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union continue to grapple with the challenges of transition, many significant policy developments have already taken place over the past six years, developments of interest to policymakers and economists alike. Conditions in these Countries in Transition (CITs) have presented a formidable challenge to reformers, a challenge that has been met with bold, rapid action in some cases; timid, tepid response in others. Now, as CITs enter the seventh year of transition, perhaps lessons can be drawn from their experience which may be of value in the future to those countries that will, in time, be in transition from socialist to market-based economic systems.The goal of this paper is to review the transition experience in tax reform over the past six years, offer a preliminary evaluation of the impact of different approaches to tax reform, and extract lessons from the successes and failures of this experience. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. We start with a brief review of tax systems in socialist planned economies in Section 2, and then move on to an examination of the enduring legacy of tax systems under central planning in Section 3. Many of the failures, problems, and idiosyncrasies of the reform efforts during the transition can be traced to the past, when these tax systems started. In Section 4, we review the two general paradigms for reform that policymakers faced early on in the transition: the adoption wholesale of a western-type, modern tax system or a tax system adapted to transition economies. Many of the current problems in the fiscal arena can be partially attributed to the scope, pace, and stability of the reform process. In Section 5 we offer a short description of the evaluation and current structure of tax systems in CITs. In Section 6 we make a preliminary attempt to quantify the impact of different approaches to tax reform on economic performance of CITs. In Section 7, we summarize the lessons from tax reform in CITs. While no strategy could be comprehensive and infallible, there are lessons to extract from the concrete experiences, relatively better practices and mistakes of CITs for the remaining centrally-planned economies when they in turn embark upon comprehensive market reform.

Did Inequality Increase in Transition?: An Analysis of the Transition Countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia

In the first decade that the former socialist countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia transitioned toward freer markets, measured income inequality increased. Because this contradicted previous models of inequality, researchers linked the increase in inequality to a supposed equality under socialism and to the process of economic and political liberalization. We show, however, that other factors, including hidden inequalities in the socialist era, can explain democratizations resultant increase in measured income inequality.

Non-lethal weapons and the long tail of warfare

This paper examines whether non-lethal weapons (NLWs) enhance the capability of the US armed forces to conduct irregular warfare (IW) operations. With expectations that the operational environment will only continue to become more complex in the future, NLWs may reduce the level of violence received, as well as dispensed, by US forces while performing tasks in the IW spectrum. We argue that NLWs increase the ability of US forces to address the long tail of warfare and their deployment should be increased in the near term.

Defense spending and economic growth: evidence from China, 1952–2012

This paper examines whether defense expenditures contributed to economic growth in China for the 1952–2012 period. We examine the contribution of defense to economic growth using recently published official data on economic activity, defense, and government expenditures. We employ the Feder-Ram and augmented Solow models of economic growth to explore the defense-growth relationship. The Feder-Ram model appears to poorly explain economic growth in China. The augmented Solow model suggests, however, that a 1% increase in defense expenditures raises the economic growth rate by approximately 0.15–0.19%.

Pakistan's economic and security dilemma: expanded defence expenditures and the relative governance syndrome

Abstract For many years, conventional wisdom stressed that developing countries such as Pakistan face a guns versus butter trade-off, with increased defence expenditures coming at the expense of improved economic growth. Later, statistical studies suggested that, depending on the circumstances, defence expenditures could either aid or hinder economic growth. However, these studies were silent on the key role governance structures played in affecting the environments in which defence expenditures occur. Our findings suggest that governance patterns relative to defence determine to a large extent whether increased defence allocations interact with the economy in a positive or negative fashion. Unfortunately for Pakistan, defence expenditures have outrun governance to the extent that their impacts on the economy are negative. Furthermore, this effect is likely to persist even if defence expenditures are significantly reduced. Improved governance is the only option open to the authorities in their attempts to neutralise the adverse impacts of military expenditures.