Miguel Ángel Luque Fernández

Influence of temperature and rainfall on the evolution of cholera epidemics in Lusaka, Zambia, 2003-2006: analysis of a time series.

In this study, we aimed to describe the evolution of three cholera epidemics that occurred in Lusaka, Zambia, between 2003 and 2006 and to analyse the association between the increase in number of cases and climatic factors. A Poisson autoregressive model controlling for seasonality and trend was built to estimate the association between the increase in the weekly number of cases and weekly means of daily maximum temperature and rainfall. All epidemics showed a seasonal trend coinciding with the rainy season (November to March). A 1 degrees C rise in temperature 6 weeks before the onset of the outbreak explained 5.2% [relative risk (RR) 1.05, 95% CI 1.04-1.06] of the increase in the number of cholera cases (2003-2006). In addition, a 50 mm increase in rainfall 3 weeks before explained an increase of 2.5% (RR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.04). The attributable risks were 4.9% for temperature and 2.4% for rainfall. If 6 weeks prior to the beginning of the rainy season an increase in temperature is observed followed by an increase in rainfall 3 weeks later, both exceeding expected levels, an increase in the number of cases of cholera within the following 3 weeks could be expected. Our explicative model could contribute to developing a warning signal to reduce the impact of a presumed cholera epidemic.

Excess of maternal mortality in foreign nationalities in Spain, 1999-2006.

OBJECTIVE This study aimed to compare maternal mortality by province, autonomous region and mothers country of birth in Spain during 1999-2006. STUDY DESIGN A cross-sectional ecological study with all live births and maternal mortality cases occurring during 1999-2006 in Spain was done. Data were drawn from the National Statistics Institute (INE) and we used the Movement of Natural Persons (MNP) and death statistics broken down by cause of death. Maternal mortality rates by province, autonomous region and mothers country of birth were calculated. To compare maternal mortality by province, standardised mortality ratios were calculated using an indirect standardisation. The risk of maternal death by autonomous region, age and mothers country of birth was calculated by a Poisson regression. RESULTS Sub-Saharan nationalities present the highest maternal mortality rates. Adjusted by age and autonomous region, foreign nationalities had 67% higher risk of maternal mortality (RR=1.67; 95%CI=1.22-2.33). Adjusted by mothers country of birth and age, two autonomous regions had a significant mortality excess: Andalusia (RR=1.84; 95%CI=1.32-2.57) and Asturias (RR=2.78 95%CI=1.24-6.24). CONCLUSION This study shows inequalities in maternal mortality by province, autonomous region and mothers country of birth in Spain. It would be desirable to implement a maternal mortality active surveillance system and the use of confidential qualitative surveys for analysis of socio-economic and healthcare circumstances surrounding deaths. These measures would be invaluable for in-depth understanding and characterisation of a preventable phenomenon such as maternal death.

Evolución del riesgo de mortalidad fetal tardía, prematuridad y bajo peso al nacer, asociado a la edad materna avanzada, en España (1996-2005)

Objectives: To describe trends in fertility, fetal death rate, prematurity and low birth weight, as well as their association with advanced maternal age, in Spain from 1996 to 2005. Methods: We performed an ecological study. The association between low birth weight and prematurity with maternal age was analyzed through contingency tables. The pattern of fetal mortality rate was analyzed through direct standardization. To study the risk of late fetal mortality, adjusted by age and prematurity, a Poisson regression model was used. Results: The rates of fertility and late fetal mortality increased in women aged more than 35 years, especially in women aged more than 45 years. The risk of late fetal mortality was 2.7 times higher in women aged 45 years and above (rate ratio, 2.7; 95%CI: 1.8-3), with an etiological fraction of exposure of 69% (95%CI: 55.2-78.6). The prevalence rate of prematurity and low birth weight was three times higher in this age group, with a prevalence rate of prematurity of 2.9 (95%CI: 2.7-3.1) and of low birth weight of 3.1 (95%CI: 2.9-3.3). Conclusions: The high risk found in women aged more than 45 years is explained by the increase in the proportion of pregnancies within this age group during the period analyzed. Further studies in perinatal epidemiology that analyze the impact of assisted reproduction techniques in pregnancies in older women are required, as well as a national registry of assisted reproduction techniques.

La fecundidad en Espana, 1996-2006: mujeres de nacionalidad extranjera frente a espanolas

OBJECTIVES To determine fertility trends in Spain and whether womens specific fertility rates differ by age and nationality during the period 1996-2006. METHODS We performed a population-based, cross-sectional study. Direct standardization was used to compare fertility rates by nationality. Foreign versus Spanish womens fertility rates by age and the period under review were compared by a generalized linear model. The trend by nationality was described by time plots and was analyzed by simple linear regression models. RESULTS Foreign women had more children (total fertility rate: 2 versus 1.2) and at younger age. The upward trend observed in the fertility of Spanish women (p<0.001) was primarily due to increased fertility in older mothers (35 years and older). The fertility of foreign women aged < or =19 was six times higher than that of Spanish women (rate ratio: 6.00, 95% CI: 2.60-13.86). CONCLUSIONS The fertility pattern of foreign women differs from that of Spanish women and is mainly characterized by higher fertility, especially in younger women (< or =19 years). This pattern may be associated with social and cultural differences. Prevention and sexual educational policies should be reformulated to take into account the specific sociocultural characteristics of this group and to adapt prevention messages to their cultural context.

Frecuencia de infecciones de transmisión sexual y factores relacionados en Pweto, República Democrática del Congo, 2004

Objectives: To estimate the prevalence of genital ulcer and urethral discharge in Pweto, Democratic Republic of Congo, and to analyze the association between the estimated prevalence and age, marital status, profession, and number of sexual partners. Methods: We performed a descriptive cross-sectional study through a survey conducted in May 2004 in a representative sample of 106 men in Pweto aged between 15 and 65 years old, with a precision of 9.5%. Questionnaire items about current or previous ulceration and urethral discharge where selfreported and referred to the previous year as of the date of the survey. To study the associations, crude and adjusted odds ratios (OR) were calculated using multivariate logistic regression. Results: The prevalence was 39.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 30-49) for urethral discharge and 33% (95%CI, 24-42) for genital ulcer. Soldiers were identified as a risk group independently of age, the number of sexual partners during the previous year, and marital status. The multivariate analysis showed an adjusted OR of 3.25 (95%CI, 1.10-9.95) (p < 0.05) for the frequency of urethral discharge in soldiers compared with other professions. Conclusions: The high prevalence of sexually transmitted infections in Pweto and the associated factors identified prompted the initiation of a controlled condom donation program for soldiers. In conflict situations with a high prevalence of sexually transmitted infections and lack of health services, humanitarian aid organizations should implement prevention activities focused on risk groups.

Tuberculosis surveillance in the Balearic Islands and characteristics of unreported cases from 2005 to 2007

We performed a descriptive study of tuberculosis cases detected by the Epidemiological Surveillance System in the Balearic Islands in the triennium 2005-2007. Our goal was to characterize underreported cases in sociodemographic terms and their contact with primary care. Overall, underreporting of tuberculosis was approximately 20%. Significant factors in multivariate analysis were social marginality (consisting of alcoholism, intravenous drug use or indigence) (aOR: 2.6 [1.2 to 5.3]), contact with primary care (aOR: 3.2 [1.4 to 7.1]), and extrapulmonary tuberculosis (aOR: 5.5[3.2-9.6]). We recommend strengthening notification by hospital specialists through the use of hospital electronic records. Our findings show that the information obtained from the primary care computerized history is helpful in improving the epidemiological surveillance of tuberculosis.

Vigilancia de la tuberculosis en las Islas Baleares y caracterización de los casos infradeclarados entre los años 2005 y 2007

We performed a descriptive study of tuberculosis cases detected by the Epidemiological Surveillance System in the Balearic Islands in the triennium 2005-2007. Our goal was to characterize underreported cases in sociodemographic terms and their contact with primary care. Overall, underreporting of tuberculosis was approximately 20%. Significant factors in multivariate analysis were social marginality (consisting of alcoholism, intravenous drug use or indigence) (aOR: 2.6 [1.2 to 5.3]), contact with primary care (aOR: 3.2 [1.4 to 7.1]), and extrapulmonary tuberculosis (aOR: 5.5[3.2-9.6]). We recommend strengthening notification by hospital specialists through the use of hospital electronic records. Our findings show that the information obtained from the primary care computerized history is helpful in improving the epidemiological surveillance of tuberculosis.

La fecundidad en España, 1996–2006: mujeres de nacionalidad extranjera frente a españolas

OBJECTIVES To determine fertility trends in Spain and whether womens specific fertility rates differ by age and nationality during the period 1996-2006. METHODS We performed a population-based, cross-sectional study. Direct standardization was used to compare fertility rates by nationality. Foreign versus Spanish womens fertility rates by age and the period under review were compared by a generalized linear model. The trend by nationality was described by time plots and was analyzed by simple linear regression models. RESULTS Foreign women had more children (total fertility rate: 2 versus 1.2) and at younger age. The upward trend observed in the fertility of Spanish women (p<0.001) was primarily due to increased fertility in older mothers (35 years and older). The fertility of foreign women aged < or =19 was six times higher than that of Spanish women (rate ratio: 6.00, 95% CI: 2.60-13.86). CONCLUSIONS The fertility pattern of foreign women differs from that of Spanish women and is mainly characterized by higher fertility, especially in younger women (< or =19 years). This pattern may be associated with social and cultural differences. Prevention and sexual educational policies should be reformulated to take into account the specific sociocultural characteristics of this group and to adapt prevention messages to their cultural context.