Miguel D. Mahecha

Climate extremes and the carbon cycle

The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and its carbon balance is strongly influenced by climate. Continuing environmental changes are thought to increase global terrestrial carbon uptake. But evidence is mounting that climate extremes such as droughts or storms can lead to a decrease in regional ecosystem carbon stocks and therefore have the potential to negate an expected increase in terrestrial carbon uptake. Here we explore the mechanisms and impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle, and propose a pathway to improve our understanding of present and future impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon budget.

The global spectrum of plant form and function

Earth is home to a remarkable diversity of plant forms and life histories, yet comparatively few essential trait combinations have proved evolutionarily viable in today’s terrestrial biosphere. By analysing worldwide variation in six major traits critical to growth, survival and reproduction within the largest sample of vascular plant species ever compiled, we found that occupancy of six-dimensional trait space is strongly concentrated, indicating coordination and trade-offs. Three-quarters of trait variation is captured in a two-dimensional global spectrum of plant form and function. One major dimension within this plane reflects the size of whole plants and their parts; the other represents the leaf economics spectrum, which balances leaf construction costs against growth potential. The global plant trait spectrum provides a backdrop for elucidating constraints on evolution, for functionally qualifying species and ecosystems, and for improving models that predict future vegetation based on continuous variation in plant form and function.

Global Convergence in the Temperature Sensitivity of Respiration at Ecosystem Level

Carbon Cycle and Climate Change As climate change accelerates, it is important to know the likely impact of climate change on the carbon cycle (see the Perspective by Reich). Gross primary production (GPP) is a measure of the amount of CO2 removed from the atmosphere every year to fuel photosynthesis. Beer et al. (p. 834, published online 5 July) used a combination of observation and calculation to estimate that the total GPP by terrestrial plants is around 122 billion tons per year; in comparison, burning fossil fuels emits about 7 billion tons annually. Thirty-two percent of this uptake occurs in tropical forests, and precipitation controls carbon uptake in more than 40% of vegetated land. The temperature sensitivity (Q10) of ecosystem respiratory processes is a key determinant of the interaction between climate and the carbon cycle. Mahecha et al. (p. 838, published online 5 July) now show that the Q10 of ecosystem respiration is invariant with respect to mean annual temperature, independent of the analyzed ecosystem type, with a global mean value for Q10 of 1.6. This level of temperature sensitivity suggests a less-pronounced climate sensitivity of the carbon cycle than assumed by recent climate models. The long-standing discrepancy between modeled and empirical measures of ecosystem temperature sensitivity is resolved. The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the land surface is a major flux in the global carbon cycle, antipodal to photosynthetic CO2 uptake. Understanding the sensitivity of respiratory processes to temperature is central for quantifying the climate–carbon cycle feedback. We approximated the sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystem respiration to air temperature (Q10) across 60 FLUXNET sites with the use of a methodology that circumvents confounding effects. Contrary to previous findings, our results suggest that Q10 is independent of mean annual temperature, does not differ among biomes, and is confined to values around 1.4 ± 0.1. The strong relation between photosynthesis and respiration, by contrast, is highly variable among sites. The results may partly explain a less pronounced climate–carbon cycle feedback than suggested by current carbon cycle climate models.

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon–climate feedbacks.

Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends

Linking plant and ecosystem functional biogeography

Significance This article defines ecosystem functional properties, which can be derived from long-term observations of gas and energy exchange between ecosystems and the atmosphere, and shows that variations of those cannot be easily explained by classical climatological or biogeographical approaches such as plant functional types. Instead, we argue that plant traits have the potential to explain this variation, and we call for a stronger integration of research communities dedicated to plant traits and to ecosystem–atmosphere exchange. Classical biogeographical observations suggest that ecosystems are strongly shaped by climatic constraints in terms of their structure and function. On the other hand, vegetation function feeds back on the climate system via biosphere–atmosphere exchange of matter and energy. Ecosystem-level observations of this exchange reveal very large functional biogeographical variation of climate-relevant ecosystem functional properties related to carbon and water cycles. This variation is explained insufficiently by climate control and a classical plant functional type classification approach. For example, correlations between seasonal carbon-use efficiency and climate or environmental variables remain below 0.6, leaving almost 70% of variance unexplained. We suggest that a substantial part of this unexplained variation of ecosystem functional properties is related to variations in plant and microbial traits. Therefore, to progress with global functional biogeography, we should seek to understand the link between organismic traits and flux-derived ecosystem properties at ecosystem observation sites and the spatial variation of vegetation traits given geoecological covariates. This understanding can be fostered by synergistic use of both data-driven and theory-driven ecological as well as biophysical approaches.

A few extreme events dominate global interannual variability in gross primary production

Understanding the impacts of climate extremes on the carbon cycle is important for quantifying the carbon-cycle climate feedback and highly relevant to climate change assessments. Climate extremes and fires can have severe regional effects, but a spatially explicit global impact assessment is still lacking. Here, we directly quantify spatiotemporal contiguous extreme anomalies in four global data sets of gross primary production (GPP) over the last 30 years. We find that positive and negative GPP extremes occurring on 7% of the spatiotemporal domain explain 78% of the global interannual variation in GPP and a significant fraction of variation in the net carbon flux. The largest thousand negative GPP extremes during 1982?2011 (4.3% of the data) account for a decrease in photosynthetic carbon uptake of about 3.5?Pg?C?yr?1, with most events being attributable to water scarcity. The results imply that it is essential to understand the nature and causes of extremes to understand current and future GPP variability.

Detection and attribution of large spatiotemporal extreme events in Earth observation data

article i nfo Latest climate projections suggest that both frequen cy and intensity of climate extremes will be substan- tially modified over the course of the coming decades. As a consequence, we need to understand to what extent and via which pathways climate extremes affect the state and functionality of terrestrial ecosystems and the associated biogeochemical cycles on a global scale. So far the impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial biosphere were mainly investigated on the basis of case studies, while global assessments are widely lacking. In order to facilitate global analysis of this kind, we present a methodological framework that firstly de- tects spatiotemporally contiguous extremes in Earth observations, and secondly infers the likely pathway of the preceding climate anomaly. The approach does not require long time series, is computationally fast, and easily applicabletoavarietyofdatasetswithdifferentspatialandtemporalresolutions.Thekeyelementofouranalysis strategy is to directly search in the relevant observations for spatiotemporally connected components exceeding a certain percentile threshold. We also put an emphasis on characterization of extreme event distribution, and scrutinize the attribution issue. We exemplify the analysis strategy by exploring the fraction of absorbed photo- synthetically active radiation (fAPAR) from 1982 to 2011. Our results suggest that the hot spots of extremes in fAPAR lie in Northeastern Brazil, Southeastern Australia, Kenya and Tanzania. Moreover, we demonstrate that the size distribution of extremes follow a distinct power law. The attribution framework reveals that extremes in fAPAR are primarily driven by phases of water scarcity.

Impact of large‐scale climate extremes on biospheric carbon fluxes: An intercomparison based on MsTMIP data

Understanding the role of climate extremes and their impact on the carbon (C) cycle is increasingly a focus of Earth system science. Climate extremes such as droughts, heat waves, or heavy precipitation events can cause substantial changes in terrestrial C fluxes. On the other hand, extreme changes in C fluxes are often, but not always, driven by extreme climate conditions. Here we present an analysis of how extremes in temperature and precipitation, and extreme changes in terrestrial C fluxes are related to each other in 10 state-of-the-art terrestrial carbon models, all driven by the same climate forcing. We use model outputs from the North American Carbon Program Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). A global-scale analysis shows that both droughts and heat waves translate into anomalous net releases of CO2 from the land surface via different mechanisms: Droughts largely decrease gross primary production (GPP) and to a lower extent total respiration (TR), while heat waves slightly decrease GPP but increase TR. Cold and wet periods have a smaller opposite effect. Analyzing extremes in C fluxes reveals that extreme changes in GPP and TR are often caused by strong shifts in water availability, but for extremes in TR shifts in temperature are also important. Extremes in net CO2 exchange are equally strongly driven by deviations in temperature and precipitation. Models mostly agree on the sign of the C flux response to climate extremes, but model spread is large. In tropical forests, C cycle extremes are driven by water availability, whereas in boreal forests temperature plays a more important role. Models are particularly uncertain about the C flux response to extreme heat in boreal forests.

Nonlinear dimensionality reduction: Alternative ordination approaches for extracting and visualizing biodiversity patterns in tropical montane forest vegetation data

Abstract Ecological patterns are difficult to extract directly from vegetation data. The respective surveys provide a high number of interrelated species occurrence variables. Since often only a limited number of ecological gradients determine species distributions, the data might be represented by much fewer but effectively independent variables. This can be achieved by reducing the dimensionality of the data. Conventional methods are either limited to linear feature extraction (e.g., principal component analysis, and Classical Multidimensional Scaling, CMDS) or require a priori assumptions on the intrinsic data dimensionality (e.g., Nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling, NMDS, and self organized maps, SOM). In this study we explored the potential of Isometric Feature Mapping (Isomap). This new method of dimensionality reduction is a nonlinear generalization of CMDS. Isomap is based on a nonlinear geodesic inter-point distance matrix. Estimating geodesic distances requires one free threshold parameter, which defines linear geometry to be preserved in the global nonlinear distance structure. We compared Isomap to its linear (CMDS) and nonmetric (NMDS) equivalents. Furthermore, the use of geodesic distances allowed also extending NMDS to a version that we called NMDS-G. In addition we investigated a supervised Isomap variant (S-Isomap) and showed that all these techniques are interpretable within a single methodical framework. As an example we investigated seven plots (subdivided in 456 subplots) in different secondary tropical montane forests with 773 species of vascular plants. A key problem for the study of tropical vegetation data is the heterogeneous small scale variability implying large ranges of β -diversity. The CMDS and NMDS methods did not reduce the data dimensionality reasonably. On the contrary, Isomap explained 95% of the data variance in the first five dimensions and provided ecologically interpretable visualizations; NMDS-G yielded similar results. The main shortcoming of the latter was the high computational cost and the requirement to predefine the dimension of the embedding space. The S-Isomap learning scheme did not improve the Isomap variant for an optimal threshold parameter but substantially improved the nonoptimal solutions. We conclude that Isomap as a new ordination method allows effective representations of high dimensional vegetation data sets. The method is promising since it does not require a priori assumptions, and is computationally highly effective.