Mika Baba

Survival prediction for advanced cancer patients in the real world: A comparison of the Palliative Prognostic Score, Delirium-Palliative Prognostic Score, Palliative Prognostic Index and modified Prognosis in Palliative Care Study predictor model

PURPOSE The aim of this study was to investigate the feasibility and accuracy of the Palliative Prognostic Score (PaP score), Delirium-Palliative Prognostic Score (D-PaP score), Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI) and modified Prognosis in Palliative Care Study predictor model (PiPS model). PATIENTS AND METHODS This multicentre prospective cohort study involved 58 palliative care services, including 19 hospital palliative care teams, 16 palliative care units and 23 home palliative care services, in Japan from September 2012 to April 2014. Analyses were performed involving four patient groups: those treated by palliative care teams, those in palliative care units, those at home and those receiving chemotherapy. RESULTS We recruited 2426 participants, and 2361 patients were finally analysed. Risk groups based on these instruments successfully identified patients with different survival profiles in all groups. The feasibility of PPI and modified PiPS-A was more than 90% in all groups, followed by PaP and D-PaP scores; modified PiPS-B had the lowest feasibility. The accuracy of prognostic scores was ⩾69% in all groups and the difference was within 13%, while c-statistics were significantly lower with the PPI than PaP and D-PaP scores. CONCLUSION The PaP score, D-PaP score, PPI and modified PiPS model provided distinct survival groups for patients in the three palliative care settings and those receiving chemotherapy. The PPI seems to be suitable for routine clinical use for situations where rough estimates of prognosis are sufficient and/or patients do not want invasive procedure. If clinicians can address more items, the modified PiPS-A would be a non-invasive alternative. In cases where blood samples are available or those requiring more accurate prediction, the PaP and D-PaP scores and modified PiPS-B would be more appropriate.

Effect of continuous deep sedation on survival in patients with advanced cancer (J-Proval): a propensity score-weighted analysis of a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND Continuous deep sedation (CDS) before death is a form of palliative sedation therapy that has become a focus of strong debate, especially with respect to whether it shortens survival. We aimed to examine whether CDS shortens patient survival using the propensity score-weighting method, and to explore the effect of artificial hydration during CDS on survival. METHODS This study was a secondary analysis of a large multicentre prospective cohort study that recruited and followed up patients between Sept 3, 2012, and April 30, 2014, from 58 palliative care institutions across Japan, including hospital palliative care settings, inpatient palliative care units, and home-based palliative care services. Adult patients (aged ≥ 20 years) with advanced cancer who received care through the participating palliative care services were eligible for this secondary analysis. Patients with missing data for outcome variables or who lived for more than 180 days were excluded. We compared survival after enrolment between patients who did and did not receive CDS. We used a propensity score-weighting method to control for patient characteristics, disease status, and symptom burden at enrolment. FINDINGS Of 2426 enrolled patients with advanced cancer, we excluded 289 (12%) for living longer than 180 days and 310 (13%) with missing data, leaving an analysis population of 1827 patients. 269 (15%) of 1827 patients received CDS. Unweighted median survival was 27 days (95% CI 22-30) in the CDS group and 26 days (24-27) in the no CDS group (median difference -1 day [95% CI -5 to 4]; HR 0·92 [95% CI 0·81-1·05]; log-rank p=0·20). After propensity-score weighting, these values were 22 days (95% CI 21-24) and 26 days (24-27), respectively (median difference -1 day [95% CI -6 to 4]; HR 1·01 [95% CI 0·87-1·17]; log-rank p=0·91). Age (p(interaction)=0·67), sex (p(interaction)=0·26), performance status (p(interaction)=0·90), and volume of artificial hydration (p(interaction)=0·14) did not have an effect modification on the association between sedation and survival, although care setting did have a significant effect modification (p(interaction)=0·021). INTERPRETATION CDS does not seem to be associated with a measurable shortening of life in patients with advanced cancer cared for by specialised palliative care services, and could be considered a viable option for palliative care in this setting. FUNDING Japanese National Cancer Center Research and Development Fund.

Independent Validation of the Modified Prognosis Palliative Care Study Predictor Models in Three Palliative Care Settings

CONTEXT Accurate prognostic information in palliative care settings is needed for patients to make decisions and set goals and priorities. The Prognosis Palliative Care Study (PiPS) predictor models were presented in 2011, but have not yet been fully validated by other research teams. OBJECTIVES The primary aim of this study is to examine the accuracy and to validate the modified PiPS (using physician-proxy ratings of mental status instead of patient interviews) in three palliative care settings, namely palliative care units, hospital-based palliative care teams, and home-based palliative care services. METHODS This multicenter prospective cohort study was conducted in 58 palliative care services including 16 palliative care units, 19 hospital-based palliative care teams, and 23 home-based palliative care services in Japan from September 2012 through April 2014. RESULTS A total of 2426 subjects were recruited. For reasons including lack of followup and missing variables (primarily blood examination data), we obtained analyzable data from 2212 and 1257 patients for the modified PiPS-A and PiPS-B, respectively. In all palliative care settings, both the modified PiPS-A and PiPS-B identified three risk groups with different survival rates (P<0.001). The absolute agreement ranged from 56% to 60% in the PiPS-A model and 60% to 62% in the PiPS-B model. CONCLUSION The modified PiPS was successfully validated and can be useful in palliative care units, hospital-based palliative care teams, and home-based palliative care services.

Longitudinal Study of the Decline in Renal Function in Healthy Subjects.

Background Chronic kidney disease is an important concern in preventive medicine, but the rate of decline in renal function in healthy population is not well defined. The purpose of this study was to determine reference values for the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and rate of decline of eGFR in healthy subjects and to evaluate factors associated with this decline using a large cohort in Japan. Methods Retrospective cross-sectional and longitudinal studies were performed with healthy subjects aged ≥18 years old who received a medical checkup. Reference values for eGFR were obtained using a nonparametric method and those for decline of eGFR were calculated by mixed model analysis. Relationships of eGFR decline rate with baseline variables were examined using a linear least-squares method. Results In the cross-sectional study, reference values for eGFR were obtained by gender and age in 72,521 healthy subjects. The mean (±SD) eGFR was 83.7±14.7ml/min/1.73m2. In the longitudinal study, reference values for eGFR decline rate were obtained by gender, age, and renal stage in 45,586 healthy subjects. In the same renal stage, there was little difference in the rate of decline regardless of age. The decline in eGFR depended on the renal stage and was strongly related to baseline eGFR, with a faster decline with a higher baseline eGFR and a slower decline with a lower baseline eGFR. The mean (±SD) eGFR decline rate was ‒1.07±0.42ml/min/1.73m2/year (‒1.29±0.41%/year) in subjects with a mean eGFR of 81.5±11.6ml/min/1.73m2. Conclusions The present study clarified for the first time the reference values for the rate of eGFR decline stratified by gender, age, and renal stage in healthy subjects. The rate of eGFR decline depended mainly on baseline eGFR, but not on age, with a slower decline with a lower baseline eGFR.

Pathogenic significance of interleukin-6 in a patient with antiglomerular basement membrane antibody-induced glomerulonephritis with multinucleated giant cells

We report a patient with anti-glomerular basement membrane disease who developed renal failure associated with systemic manifestations, including acute-phase inflammatory reactions and plasmacytosis. Renal tissue obtained by an open surgical biopsy showed circumferential cellular crescents, multinucleated giant cells, and exudation of fibrin in all glomeruli. Immunofluorescence microscopy demonstrated deposition of immunoglobulin G, C3, and membrane attack complex along glomerular capillary walls. Multinucleated giant cells were suggested to be macrophage-monocyte lineage because they were CD68 positive. Bone marrow aspiration showed an increase of plasma cells. Immunostaining showed intensive expression of interleukin-6 (IL-6) in practically every part of the renal sites involving multinucleated cells, crescents, tubules, and infiltrating cells, suggesting that one of the sources of systemically elevated IL-6 was the kidney. Serum IL-6, anti-glomerular basement membrane antibody, and acute-phase proteins were markedly elevated, and returned dramatically to the normal level after corticosteroid therapy and plasmapheresis. We believe that IL-6 played an important role in the development of many symptoms in the present case.

C-reactive protein, symptoms and activity of daily living in patients with advanced cancer receiving palliative care

The association between C‐reactive protein (CRP) level, symptoms, and activities of daily living (ADL) in advanced cancer patients is unclear.

Effect of Nutritional Support on Terminally Ill Patients With Cancer in a Palliative Care Unit

The role of nutritional support on terminally ill patients with cancer in a palliative care unit has not been clarified. A total of 63 patients were retrospectively investigated; the patients receiving individualized nutritional support (intervention group [n = 22]) were compared to the others (control group [n = 41]). The intervention group received individualized nutritional support. There were no significant differences in the characteristics of patients between the groups. The prevalence of bedsores was significantly lower in the intervention group (14% vs 46%, P = .012). The prevalence of edema and the use of antibiotic therapies tended to be lower in the intervention group than in the control group (36% vs 54%, P = .19; 14% vs 27%, P = .34, respectively). Some terminally ill patients with cancer in a palliative care unit might benefit from nutritional support.

A prospective, multicenter cohort study to validate a simple performance status-based survival prediction system for oncologists.

Survival prediction systems such as the Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI), which includes the Palliative Performance Scale (PPS), are used to estimate survival for terminally ill patients. Oncologists are, however, less familiar with the PPS in comparison with the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status (PS). This study was designed to validate a simple survival prediction system for oncologists, the Performance Status–Based Palliative Prognostic Index (PS‐PPI), which is a modified form of the PPI based on the ECOG PS.

Adding items that assess changes in activities of daily living does not improve the predictive accuracy of the Palliative Prognostic Index

Background: Changes in activities of daily living in cancer patients may predict their survival. The Palliative Prognostic Index is a useful tool to evaluate cancer patients, and adding an item about activities of daily living changes might improve its predictive value. Aim: To clarify whether adding an item about activities of daily living changes improves the accuracy of Palliative Prognostic Index. Design: Multicenter prospective cohort study. Setting: A total of 58 palliative care services in Japan. Participants: Patients aged >20 years diagnosed with locally extensive or metastatic cancer (including hematological neoplasms) who had been admitted to palliative care units, were receiving care by hospital-based palliative care teams, or were receiving home-based palliative care. Palliative care physicians recorded clinical variables at the first assessment and followed up patients 6 months later. Results: A total of 2425 subjects were recruited and 2343 of these had analyzable data. The C-statistic of the original Palliative Prognostic Index was 0.801, and those of modified Palliative Prognostic Indices ranged from 0.793 to 0.805 at 3 weeks. For 6-week survival predictions, the C-statistic of the original Palliative Prognostic Index was 0.802, and those of modified Palliative Prognostic Indices ranged from 0.791 to 0.799. The weighted kappa of the original Palliative Prognostic Index was 0.510, and those of modified Palliative Prognostic Indices ranged from 0.484 to 0.508. Conclusion: Adding items about activities of daily living changes to the Palliative Prognostic Index did not improve prognostic value in advanced cancer patients.

The Determinants of Patients in a Palliative Care Unit Being Discharged Home in Japan

In Japan, regarding the place of end-of-life care, many people preferred the home. However, there is a discrepancy between patients’ wishes and the actual circumstances. The primary aim of this study was to explore the factors that determine discharge home of patients in a palliative care unit. A total of 31 patients met the criteria. The patients who could be discharged home (group 1; n = 23) were compared with the others (group 2; n = 8). Palliative prognostic index was significantly lower in group 1 than in group 2 (P = .032). Regarding routes of feeding, oral intake was significantly higher in group 1 than in group 2 (P = .043). That is to say, factors determining discharge home of patients may be influenced by the patient’s prognosis and the necessity of a feeding device.