Mika Marttunen

Use of decision analysis interviews to support the sustainable use of the forests in Finnish Upper Lapland

Controversy between alternative uses of forests in Finnish Upper Lapland has been going on for decades, and in recent years it has been escalated to a serious conflict. The core of the conflict is the adverse impacts of forestry on old forests which are important grazing areas for reindeer and which are regarded as intact nature and wilderness areas. This paper describes the experiences of applying multi-criteria decision analysis interview approach on this conflict. The approach provides tools for structuring the problem and preferences of the stakeholders as well as for analyzing the effects of different alternatives in a common framework. We focus on the practical experiences gained from the application of this approach in this context. Multi-criteria decision analysis was found to be a useful approach to evaluate the economic, ecological and cultural aspects of this intense conflict. The obtained experiences also support the view that the approach works best when tightly integrated into the planning process.

Structuring problems for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in practice: A literature review of method combinations

Structuring problems for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) has attracted increasing attention over the past 20 years from both a conceptual and a practical perspective. This is reflected in a significant growth in the number of published applications which use a formal approach to problem structuring in combination with an analytic method for multi-criteria analysis. The problem structuring approaches (PSMs) include general methodologies such as Checklands Soft Systems Method (SSM), Eden and Ackermanns Strategic Options Design and Analysis (SODA) and other methods that focus on a particular aspect. We carried out a literature review that covers eight PSMs (Cognitive and Causal Maps, DPSIR, Scenario Planning, SSM, Stakeholder Analysis, Strategic Choice Approach, SODA and SWOT) and seven MCDA methods (AHP, ANP, ELECTRE, MAUT, MAVT, PROMETHEE and TOPSIS). We first identified and analysed 333 articles published during 2000-2015, then selected 68 articles covering all PSM-MCDA combinations, which were studied in detail to understand the associated processes, benefits and challenges. The three PSMs most commonly combined with MCDA are SWOT, Scenario Planning and DPSIR. AHP was by far the most commonly applied MCDA method. Combining PSMs with MCDA produces a richer view of the decision situation and enables more effective support for different phases of the decision-making process. Some limitations and challenges in combining PSMs and MCDA are also identified, most importantly relating to building a value tree and assigning criteria weights.

Comparison of multi-criteria decision analytical software for supporting environmental planning processes

In this paper, we analyze 23 multi-criteria decision analysis software tools in terms of their applicability to support environmental planning processes. Our aim is to survey what kind of software is available, and compare the features they provide to meet the characteristics of environmental problems. Our focus is on useful or innovative features of the software from the viewpoint of supporting practitioners to systematically analyze and compare alternatives in environmental planning. The results can be utilized for selecting the most suitable software for supporting the needs of the environmental cases, but also for identifying good practices and innovative implementation solutions for software development. We compare 23 multi-criteria decision analysis software tools.We identify good practices for process support and visualizing the results.There are many features that support the characteristics of environmental problems.The aim is to help further software development and support practitioners in selecting software.

Energy security impacts of a severe drought on the future Finnish energy system

Finland updated its Energy and Climate Strategy in late 2016 with the aim of increasing the share of renewable energy sources, increasing energy self-sufficiency and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Concurrently, the issue of generation adequacy has grown more topical, especially since the record-high demand peak in Finland in January 2016. This paper analyses the Finnish energy system in years 2020 and 2030 by using the EnergyPLAN simulation tool to model whether different energy policy scenarios result in a plausible generation inadequacy. Moreover, as the Nordic energy system is so heavily dependent on hydropower production, we model and analyse the impacts of a severe drought on the Finnish energy system. We simulate hydropower availability according to the weather of the worst drought of the last century (in 1939-1942) with Finnish Environment Institutes Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System and we analyse the indirect impacts via reduced availability of electricity imports based on recent realised dry periods. Moreover, we analyse the environmental impacts of hydropower production during the drought and peak demand period and the impacts of climate change on generation adequacy in Finland. The results show that the scenarios of the new Energy and Climate Strategy result in an improved generation adequacy comparing to the current situation. However, a severe drought similar to that experienced in 1940s could cause a serious energy security threat.

Monetary assessment of the recreational benefits of improved water quality – description of a new model and a case study

The European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD) has created a demand for comparing the benefits and costs of the remedial measures. A major part of the benefits from improved water quality relate to the increased recreational value. However, there is a lack of easily operative and widely applicable quantitative methods to assess the benefits of improved water quality for recreational use. We present a new model to link physical indicators of water quality, water feasibility indicators for different recreational uses, individuals’ perceptions concerning the current feasibility of water for recreational purposes and monetary measures of water-related recreation benefits. The model has been applied to nine lakes, three rivers and one large coastal area in Finland. In this paper, we present the principles of the method and the results from one case study. In Finland, the method has been applied for the economic analysis required in the WFD.

Monitavoitearviointi Ylä-Lapin metsien kestävän käytön mahdollisuuksista

Tutkimuksessa tarkasteltiin Ylä-Lapin metsien käytön vaihtoehtoja osallistuvan monitavoitearvioinnin avulla. Eri sidosryhmien arvostukset tuotiin mukaan arviointimalliin henkilökohtaisilla tietokoneavusteisilla päätösanalyysihaastatteluilla. Tavoitteena oli selvittää eri tahojen näkemyksiä vaihtoehtojen mieluisuudesta. Tutkimuksessa muodostettiin viisi erilaista metsien käsittelyvaihtoehtoa, joissa hakkuukertymät vaihtelivat välillä 300 000 m3/v ja 30 000 m3/v. Vaihtoehtoja arvioitiin kuuden kriteerin avulla: 1) bruttotulovaikutukset paikallistaloudessa 2) työllistävyys 3) saamelainen poronhoitokulttuuri 4) paikallinen luonnon virkistyskäyttö 5) luonnon monimuotoisuus ja 6) yhteisymmärrys ja sopeutuminen. Tulosten perusteella voitiin tunnistaa kolme eri ryhmää. Kaksi ensimmäistä ryhmää pitivät parhaimpana vaihtoehtona nykyisen luonnonvarasuunnitelman mukaista hakkuutasoa. Nämä ryhmät poikkesivat toisistaan siten, että ensimmäinen ryhmä asetti toiselle sijalle nykyistä luonnonvarasuunnitelmaa laajemmat hakkuut kun taas toinen ryhmä piti toiseksi parhaana vaihtoehtona tätä suppeampia hakkuita. Kolmas ryhmä piti mieluisimpana vaihtoehtoa, jossa yli 140-vuotiaita metsiä ei hakata lainkaan. Arviointi nosti esille myös vaikutusarvioita koskevia näkemyseroja. Suurimmat erot koskivat saamelainen poronhoitokulttuuri ja porotalouden työllisyys -kriteereitä. Nämä ovat avainkysymyksiä, joista tulisi löytää yhteistä tietopohjaa kiistojen ratkaisemiseksi.