Miklos Z. Molnar

Elevated Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 is a Risk Factor for Kidney Transplant Loss and Mortality

An increased circulating level of fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) is an independent risk factor for mortality, cardiovascular disease, and progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD), but its role in transplant allograft and patient survival is unknown. We tested the hypothesis that increased FGF23 is an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality and allograft loss in a prospective cohort of 984 stable kidney transplant recipients. At enrollment, estimated GFR (eGFR) was 51 ± 21 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) and median C-terminal FGF23 was 28 RU/ml (interquartile range, 20 to 43 RU/ml). Higher FGF23 levels independently associated with increased risk of the composite outcome of all-cause mortality and allograft loss (full model hazard ratio: 1.46 per SD increase in logFGF23, 95% confidence interval: 1.28 to 1.68, P<0.001). The results were similar for each component of the composite outcome and in all sensitivity analyses, including prespecified analyses of patients with baseline eGFR of 30 to 90 ml/min per 1.73 m(2). In contrast, other measures of phosphorus metabolism, including serum phosphate and parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels, did not consistently associate with outcomes. We conclude that a high (or elevated) FGF23 is an independent risk factor for death and allograft loss in kidney transplant recipients.

Hyponatremia, Hypernatremia, and Mortality in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease With and Without Congestive Heart Failure

Background— Hyponatremia is common in patients with conditions such as congestive heart failure and is associated with increased mortality in hospitalized patients. Congestive heart failure is common in patients with chronic kidney disease, but the association of serum sodium concentration with mortality in such patients is not well characterized. Methods and Results— We examined the association of serum sodium concentration with all-cause mortality in a nationally representative cohort of 655 493 US veterans with non–dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (95 961 [15%] of them with congestive heart failure). Associations were examined in time-dependent Cox models with adjustment for potential confounders. During a median follow-up of 5.5 years, a total of 193 956 patients died (mortality rate, 62.5/1000 patient-years; 95% confidence interval, 62.2–62.8). The association of serum sodium level with mortality was U-shaped, with the lowest mortality seen in patients with sodium level of 140 mEq/L and with both lower and higher levels showing significant associations with increased mortality. Patients with serum sodium levels of <130, 130 to 135.9, 145.1 to 150, and ≥150 mEq/L compared with 136 to 145 mEq/L had multivariable-adjusted mortality hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of 1.93 (1.83–2.03), 1.28 (1.26–1.30), 1.33 (1.28–1.38), and 1.56 (1.33–1.83) (P<0.001 for all). The associations remained consistent in subgroups of patients with and without congestive heart failure. Conclusions— Both lower and higher serum sodium levels are independently associated with higher mortality in patients with non–dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease, irrespective of the presence or absence of congestive heart failure.

Blood Pressure and Mortality in U.S. Veterans With Chronic Kidney Disease: A Cohort Study

BACKGROUND The ideal blood pressure (BP) to decrease mortality rates in patients with non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (CKD) is unclear. OBJECTIVE To assess the association of BP (defined as the combination of systolic BP [SBP] and diastolic BP [DBP] at the individual level) with death in patients with CKD. DESIGN Historical cohort between 2005 and 2012. SETTING All U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs health care facilities. PATIENTS 651 749 U.S. veterans with CKD. MEASUREMENTS All possible combinations of SBP and DBP were examined in 96 categories from lowest (<80/<40 mm Hg) to highest (>210/>120 mm Hg), in 10-mm Hg increments. Associations with all-cause mortality were examined in time-dependent Cox models with adjustment for relevant confounders. RESULTS Patients with SBP of 130 to 159 mm Hg combined with DBP of 70 to 89 mm Hg had the lowest adjusted mortality rates, and those in whom both SBP and DBP were concomitantly very high or very low had the highest mortality rates. Patients with moderately elevated SBP combined with DBP no less than 70 mm Hg had consistently lower mortality rates than did patients with ideal SBP combined with DBP less than 70 mm Hg. Results were consistent in subgroups of patients with normal and elevated urinary microalbumin-creatinine ratios. LIMITATION Mostly male patients, inability to establish causality, and large number of patients missing proteinuria measurement. CONCLUSION The optimal BP in patients with CKD seems to be 130 to 159/70 to 89 mm Hg. It may not be advantageous to achieve ideal SBP at the expense of lower-than-ideal DBP in adults with CKD. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, National Institutes of Health, and U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.

Serum creatinine as a marker of muscle mass in chronic kidney disease: results of a cross‐sectional study and review of literature

BackgroundHigher muscle mass is associated with better outcomes and longevity in patients with chronic disease states. Imaging studies such as dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) are among the gold standard methods for assessing body fat and lean body mass (LBM), approximately half of which is comprised of skeletal muscle mass. Elaborate imaging devices, however, are not commonly available in routine clinical practice and therefore easily accessible and cost-effective, but reliable muscle mass biomarkers are needed. One such marker is serum creatinine, derived from muscle-based creatine, which is inexpensive and ubiquitously available, and it can serve as a biomarker of skeletal muscle mass in human subjects.Methods and resultsIn 118 hemodialysis patients, we found that the 3-month averaged serum creatinine concentration correlated well with DEXA-measured LBM. The recent literature regarding serum creatinine as a surrogate of muscle mass is summarized, as is the literature concerning the use of other measures of muscle mass, such as plasma gelsolin and actin, and urinary creatinine excretion. We have also reviewed the role of dietary meat intake in serum creatinine variability along with several biomarkers of dietary meat intake (creatine, carnitine, carnosine, ophidine, anserine, 3-methyl-l-histidine and 1-methylhistidine).ConclusionIn summary, none of these biomarkers was studied in CKD patients. We advance the hypothesis that in both health and disease, under steady state, serum creatinine can serve as a reliable muscle mass biomarker if appropriate adjustment for full or residual kidney function and dietary meat intake is undertaken.

Associations of Body Mass Index and Weight Loss with Mortality in Transplant-Waitlisted Maintenance Hemodialysis Patients

A body mass index (BMI) below morbid obesity range is often a requirement for kidney transplant wait‐listing, but data linking BMI changes to mortality during the waitlist period are lacking. By linking the 6‐year (7/2001–6/2007) national databases of a large dialysis organization and the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, we identified 14 632 waitlisted hemodialysis patients without kidney transplantation. Time‐dependent survival models examined the mortality predictability of 13‐week‐averaged BMI, pretransplant serum creatinine as a muscle mass surrogate and their changes over time. The patients were on average 52 ± 13 years old, 40% women and had a BMI of 26.9 ± 6.3 kg/m2. Each kg/m2 increase of BMI was associated with a death hazard ratio (HR) of 0.96 (95%CI: 0.95–0.97). Compared to the lowest creatinine quintile, the 4th and 5th quintiles had death HRs of 0.75 (0.66–0.86) and 0.57 (0.49–0.66), respectively. Compared to minimal (< ± 1 kg) weight change over 6 months, those with 3 kg–<5 kg and ≥5 kg weight loss had death HRs of 1.31 (1.14–1.52) and 1.51 (1.30–1.75), respectively. Similar associations were observed with creatinine changes over time. Transplant‐waitlisted hemodialysis patients with lower BMI or muscle mass and/or unintentional weight or muscle loss have higher mortality in this observational study. Impact of intentional weight change remains unclear.

Body mass index, waist circumference and mortality in kidney transplant recipients.

Higher body mass index (BMI) appears paradoxically associated with better outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease. Whereas higher BMI reflects both increased visceral and subcutaneous fat and/or muscle mass, a combined assessment of BMI and waist circumference may enable differentiation of visceral adiposity from muscle and/or nonvisceral fat mass. We examined the association of BMI and waist circumference with all‐cause mortality in a prospective cohort of 993 kidney transplant recipients. Associations were examined in Cox models with adjustment for demographic and comorbid conditions and for inflammatory markers. Unadjusted death hazard ratios (95%CI) associated with one standard deviation higher BMI and waist circumference were 0.94 (0.78, 1.13), p = 0.5 and 1.20 (1.00, 1.45), p = 0.05, respectively. Higher BMI was associated with lower mortality after adjustment for waist circumference (0.48 [0.34, 0.69], p < 0.001), and higher waist circumference was more strongly associated with higher mortality after adjustment for BMI (2.18 [1.55–3.08], p < 0.001). The associations of waist circumference with mortality remained significant after additional multivariable adjustments. Higher BMI and waist circumference display opposite associations with mortality in kidney transplant recipients. Waist circumference appears to be a better prognostic marker for obesity than BMI.

Glycemic Control and Cardiovascular Mortality in Hemodialysis Patients With Diabetes: A 6-Year Cohort Study

Previous observational studies using differing methodologies have yielded inconsistent results regarding the association between glycemic control and outcomes in diabetic patients receiving maintenance hemodialysis (MHD). We examined mortality predictability of A1C and random serum glucose over time in a contemporary cohort of 54,757 diabetic MHD patients (age 63 ± 13 years, 51% men, 30% African Americans, 19% Hispanics). Adjusted all-cause death hazard ratio (HR) for baseline A1C increments of 8.0–8.9, 9.0–9.9, and ≥10%, compared with 7.0–7.9% (reference), was 1.06 (95% CI 1.01–1.12), 1.05 (0.99–1.12), and 1.19 (1.12–1.28), respectively, and for time-averaged A1C was 1.11 (1.05–1.16), 1.36 (1.27–1.45), and 1.59 (1.46–1.72). A symmetric increase in mortality also occurred with time-averaged A1C levels in the low range (6.0–6.9%, HR 1.05 [95% CI 1.01–1.08]; 5.0–5.9%, 1.08 [1.04–1.11], and ≤5%, 1.35 [1.29–1.42]) compared with 7.0–7.9% in fully adjusted models. Adjusted all-cause death HR for time-averaged blood glucose 175–199, 200–249, 250–299, and ≥300 mg/dL, compared with 150–175 mg/dL (reference), was 1.03 (95% CI 0.99–1.07), 1.14 (1.10–1.19), 1.30 (1.23–1.37), and 1.66 (1.56–1.76), respectively. Hence, poor glycemic control (A1C ≥8% or serum glucose ≥200 mg/dL) appears to be associated with high all-cause and cardiovascular death in MHD patients. Very low glycemic levels are also associated with high mortality risk.

Glycemic Control and Survival in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients with Diabetes Mellitus

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES The optimal target for glycemic control has not been established for diabetic peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS We examined mortality-predictability of hemoglobin A1c random serum glucose in a contemporary cohort of diabetic PD patients treated in DaVita dialysis clinics July 2001 through June 2006 with follow-up through June 2007. RESULTS We identified 2798 diabetic PD patients with A1c data. Serum glucose correlated with A1C (r=0.51). Adjusted all-cause death hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval for baseline A1c increments of 7.0 to 7.9%, 8.0 to 8.9%, 9.0 to 9.9%, and ≥10%, compared with 6.0 to 6.9% (reference), were 1.13 (0.97 to 1.32), 1.05 (0.88 to 1.27), 1.06 (0.84 to 1.34), and 1.48 (1.18 to 1.86); and for time-averaged A1c values were 1.10 (0.96 to 1.27), 1.28 (1.07 to 1.53), 1.34 (1.05 to 1.70), and 1.81 (1.33 to 2.46), respectively. The A1c-mortality association was modified by hemoglobin level such that higher all-cause mortality was evident only in nonanemic patients. Similar but non-significant trends in cardiovascular death risk was found across A1c increments. Adjusted all-cause death HR for time-averaged blood glucose 150 to 199, 200 to 249, 250 to 299, and ≥300 mg/dl, compared with 60 to 99 mg/dl (reference), were 1.02 (0.70 to 1.47), 1.12 (0.77 to 1.63), 1.45 (0.97 to 2.18), and 2.10 (1.37 to 3.20), respectively. CONCLUSIONS Poor glycemic control appears associated incrementally with higher mortality in PD patients. Moderate to severe hyperglycemia is associated with higher death risk especially in certain subgroups.

Mortality Prediction by Surrogates of Body Composition: An Examination of the Obesity Paradox in Hemodialysis Patients Using Composite Ranking Score Analysis

In hemodialysis patients, lower body mass index and weight loss have been associated with higher mortality rates, a phenomenon sometimes called the obesity paradox. This apparent paradox might be explained by loss of muscle mass. The authors thus examined the relation to mortality of changes in dry weight and changes in serum creatinine levels (a muscle-mass surrogate) in a cohort of 121,762 hemodialysis patients who were followed for up to 5 years (2001-2006). In addition to conventional regression analyses, the authors conducted a ranking analysis of joint effects in which the sums and differences of the percentiles of change for the 2 measures in each patient were used as the regressors. Concordant with previous body mass index observations, lower body mass, lower muscle mass, weight loss, and serum creatinine decline were associated with higher death rates. Among patients with a discordant change, persons whose weight declined but whose serum creatinine levels increased had lower death rates than did those whose weight increased but whose serum creatinine level declined. A decline in serum creatinine appeared to be a stronger predictor of mortality than did weight loss. Assuming residual selection bias and confounding were not large, the present results suggest that a considerable proportion of the obesity paradox in dialysis patients might be explained by the amount of decline in muscle mass.

Associations of pretransplant weight and muscle mass with mortality in renal transplant recipients

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES The association between pretransplant body composition and posttransplant outcomes in renal transplant recipients is unclear. It was hypothesized that in hemodialysis patients higher muscle mass (represented by higher pretransplant serum creatinine level) and larger body size (represented by higher pretransplant body mass index [BMI]) are associated with better posttransplant outcomes. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS Linking 5-year patient data of a large dialysis organization (DaVita) to the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, 10,090 hemodialysis patients were identified who underwent kidney transplantation from July 2001 to June 2007. Cox regression hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals of death and/or graft failure were estimated. RESULTS Patients were 49 ± 13 years old and included 49% women, 45% diabetics, and 27% African Americans. In Cox models adjusted for case-mix, nutrition-inflammation complex, and transplant-related covariates, the 3-month-averaged postdialysis weight-based pretransplant BMI of 20 to <22 and < 20 kg/m(2), compared with 22 to <25 kg/m(2), showed a nonsignificant trend toward higher combined posttransplant mortality or graft failure, and even weaker associations existed for BMI ≥ 25 kg/m(2). Compared with pretransplant 3-month- averaged serum creatinine of 8 to <10 mg/dl, there was 2.2-fold higher risk of combined death or graft failure with serum creatinine <4 mg/dl, whereas creatinine ≥14 mg/dl exhibited 22% better graft and patient survival. CONCLUSIONS Pretransplant obesity does not appear to be associated with poor posttransplant outcomes. Larger pretransplant muscle mass, reflected by higher pretransplant serum creatinine level, is associated with greater posttransplant graft and patient survival.