Mimmi Söderberg Kovacs

The Predicament of Elections in War-Torn Societies

Why do elections held in the shadow of civil wars sometimes generate more violence in already war-torn societies, while in other circumstances they do not? This article develops a conceptual framework based on three clusters of factors to analyse the conflict-generating aspects of elections in war-torn societies: the key actors in the electoral processes; the institutions of elections; and the stakes of the elections. Two types of war-related elections are distinguished: elections held during an ongoing civil war, and elections held in the post-war period when peace is to be implemented. While different in many respects, the two contexts share critical characteristics through their association with the legacy of warfare. Several important implications emerge from the analysis. First, relating to militant and violent actors, incentive structures need to be altered by addressing both the opportunities and means of violence. Second, to prevent inducements for violent behaviour, institutional arrangements – including electoral commissions – have to be crafted with consideration given to local conflict dynamics and the history of violent conflict. Finally, the stakes of elections in war-shattered societies can be reduced through, for instance, constitutional pact-making and the oversight of external actors in electoral processes.

Beyond the absence of war: the diversity of peace in post-settlement societies

This article introduces a novel way of conceptualising variations of peace in post-war societies. The most common way of defining peace in the academic literature on war termination is to differentiate between those cases where there is a continuation or resumption of large-scale violence and those cases where violence has been terminated and peace, defined by the absence of war, has been established. Yet, a closer look at a number of countries where a peace agreement has been signed and peace is considered to prevail reveals a much more diverse picture. Beyond the absence of war, there are striking differences in terms of the character of peace that has followed. This article revisits the classical debates on peace and the notion of the Conflict Triangle as a useful theoretical construction for the study of armed conflicts. We develop a classification captured in a Peace Triangle, where post-settlement societies are categorised on the basis of three key dimensions: issues, behaviour, and attitudes. On the basis of such a differentiation, we illustrate the great diversity of peace beyond the absence of war in a number of post-settlement societies. Finally, we discuss the relationship between the different elements of the Peace Triangle, and the challenges they pose for establishing a sustainable peace, as well as the implications of this study for policy makers concerned with peacebuilding efforts.

Breaking the Cycle of Violence: Promises and Pitfalls of the Liberian Peace Process

This article analyses the prospects for sustainable peace in Liberia. The implementation of the 2003 peace agreement has largely been successful, but there are reasons for concern. Liberias history of repeated cycles of violence and fragile peace provides valuable lessons for the current peace process. The article argues that Liberias future is contingent on three critical aspects. First, the management of the immediate and long-term security challenges in terms of the reconstruction of the security forces, the reintegration of ex-combatants and the management of spoilers. Second, the capacity and willingness of the new government to promote democratic progress and good governance. Third, the political developments in the neighbouring region.

Rebel-to-party transformations in civil war peace processes 1975–2011

ABSTRACT Previous research has established the critical relevance of better understanding the conditions that either facilitate or obstruct rebel-to-party transformations for the sake of strengthening the prospects for both peace and democracy in post-war societies. In this study, we contribute to this growing research agenda in two ways. We first present and analyse data collected by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) on all peace agreements that contain specific rebel-to-party provisions during the time period 1975–2011. Second, we introduce new data on rebel-to-party outcomes during the same time period. The descriptive findings confirm several of our theoretical expectations. Rebel-to-party provisions are exclusive to the post-Cold War era, and are commonly included in peace agreements with third-party presence. Somewhat surprisingly, we have seen almost twice as many agreements with such provisions in Africa compared to other regions, and only in peace agreements in governmental conflicts. However, we find several cases of rebel-to-party outcomes in territorial conflicts. Our data also confirm that rebel-to-party provisions are neither necessary nor sufficient for rebel-to-party outcomes, and highlight the potential relevance of other political provisions also supporting the group’s political integration.

Different Paths of Reconstruction: Military Reform in Post-War Sierra Leone and Liberia

Security Sector Reform (SSR) has developed into a key component of international peacebuilding agendas. However, there is a lack of sufficient knowledge of the advantages and drawbacks of different reform processes. This study offers a comparative analysis of two post-war states with diverse approaches to the reconstruction of the national armed forces after a civil war: Sierra Leone after the 1999 Lomé Peace Accord, where the competing warring parties were integrated into a single force; and Liberia following the 2003 Accra Peace Agreement, where the old army was disbanded and a new force was recruited and built from scratch. The findings show that each approach was associated with distinct benefits and risks during the implementation process. However, the outcomes are also similar in many important respects, and raise questions about the long-term sustainability of these reforms.

Peace agreements: finding solutions to intra-state conflicts; When conflict resolution fails: an alternative to negotiation and dialogue

and the justification and conduct of the recent Iraq War. Aistrope warns that policymakers put US credibility at risk among Arab-Muslim audiences who remain sensitive to hypocrisy because ‘the recurring language of paranoia and misinformation is likely to offend and rebuff rather than connect’ (127). These substantive chapters are of high value because, taken together, they open an intellectual space from which to engage critically with US power, re-energizing possibilities of genuine dialogue transcending diverse and, at times, diverging politico-cultural projects and practices. This book—thoroughly researched, intellectually sophisticated and powerfully argued—signals the emergence of a talented new scholar from the University of Queensland, Australia. Conspiracy theory and American foreign policy will appeal to advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students wishing to better understand the limits, weaknesses and complicities of US foreign policy during the War on Terror. More experienced researchers and analysts will appreciate Aistrope’s analytic techniques and his critical examination of the relevant scholarship. Aistrope also offers nourishing food for thought to those officials who, employed by the US government, might consider themselves reflective security practitioners.