Desirée Nilsson

From Words to Deeds: The Implementation of Power-Sharing Pacts in Peace Accords

Is the implementation of power-sharing provisions the key to durable peace? This study analyzes whether the implementation of political, military, and territorial power-sharing provisions contributes to peace. We introduce a new dataset (IMPACT), which contains unique information on the implementation of power-sharing pacts in peace accords in the post—Cold War period. Based on the logic of costly signaling, we demonstrate that when the parties engage in costly concessions by implementing military and territorial provisions, peace is more likely to prevail. In contrast, the implementation of political pacts is less costly, and hence does not increase the prospects of peace.

Rebels against Rebels Explaining Violence between Rebel Groups

Rebel groups that confront the government frequently become engaged in fierce and violent struggles with other groups. Why does a rebel group who is already fighting with the government become engaged in yet another struggle, thereby sacrificing scarce resources in the fight against other rebel groups? This article addresses this puzzle by providing the first global study on the determinants of interrebel violence. The authors argue that this violence should be understood as a means to secure material resources and political leverage that can help the group prevail in the conflict with the government. The quantitative analysis builds on new data on armed conflict between nonstate actors, 1989–2007. The results show that interrebel conflict is more likely when the rebel group fights in an area with drug cultivation, when the group is in control of territory beyond government reach, when the group is either militarily strong or weak in relation to other rebels, and where state authority is weak.

Breaking the Cycle of Violence: Promises and Pitfalls of the Liberian Peace Process

This article analyses the prospects for sustainable peace in Liberia. The implementation of the 2003 peace agreement has largely been successful, but there are reasons for concern. Liberias history of repeated cycles of violence and fragile peace provides valuable lessons for the current peace process. The article argues that Liberias future is contingent on three critical aspects. First, the management of the immediate and long-term security challenges in terms of the reconstruction of the security forces, the reintegration of ex-combatants and the management of spoilers. Second, the capacity and willingness of the new government to promote democratic progress and good governance. Third, the political developments in the neighbouring region.

Disputes over the Divine: Introducing the Religion and Armed Conflict (RELAC) Data, 1975 to 2015

This article introduces the Religion and Armed Conflict (RELAC) data, 1975 to 2015, which is a new data set suitable for analyzing the causes, dynamics, and resolution of religious conflicts. It contains information about key religious dimensions of conflicts: whether the issue at stake is religious, the actors’ religious identity, and fine-grained data about the type and salience of religious claims. The article presents the major features of the data set and describes patterns and trends that shed new light on religious conflicts, for example, by demonstrating that conflicts over Islamist claims have become more prevalent. We also illustrate the utility of the data. For instance, we show that there is great variation in lethality across conflicts with different types of Islamist claims, thereby offering a more nuanced understanding of the deadliness of religious conflicts. RELAC should be a valuable resource for scholars, examining religious dimensions of intrastate armed conflicts.

Different Paths of Reconstruction: Military Reform in Post-War Sierra Leone and Liberia

Security Sector Reform (SSR) has developed into a key component of international peacebuilding agendas. However, there is a lack of sufficient knowledge of the advantages and drawbacks of different reform processes. This study offers a comparative analysis of two post-war states with diverse approaches to the reconstruction of the national armed forces after a civil war: Sierra Leone after the 1999 Lomé Peace Accord, where the competing warring parties were integrated into a single force; and Liberia following the 2003 Accra Peace Agreement, where the old army was disbanded and a new force was recruited and built from scratch. The findings show that each approach was associated with distinct benefits and risks during the implementation process. However, the outcomes are also similar in many important respects, and raise questions about the long-term sustainability of these reforms.

The rise of rebel contenders: Barriers to entry and fragmentation in civil wars

Fragmentation of armed opposition movements through the rise of new rebel groups constitutes a significant challenge to conflict termination and peacebuilding. Yet, the question of why some rebel movements remain cohesive whereas others see a number of contending groups during the course of the armed conflict has received limited attention in existing research. This article addresses this gap by analyzing the determinants of the rise of rebel contenders in intrastate armed conflicts worldwide, 1975–2013. The theoretical framework focuses on barriers to entry, that is, variations in the costs and disadvantages that must be borne by nascent rebel contenders that are not borne to the same extent by incumbent rebel groups. The study proposes that strong social networks underpinning incumbent groups create structural barriers to entry for nascent groups by aggravating challenges of organization building. It further suggests that the interaction between incumbent groups and the government influences strategic barriers to entry as changes in government policies produce windows of opportunity for nascent groups to form. Consistent with these arguments, the study finds that when incumbent groups have strong networks – because rebels either tap into ethnic networks or draw on a leftist ideology – the risk of fragmentation is lower. Furthermore, when the government accommodates groups, through either negotiations or democratic concessions, the risk of fragmentation increases.