Mirko J. Cicak

A MODEL FOR CALCULATION OF RAILWAY LINES CAPACITY UTILIZATION IN RELATION TO THE TRAFFIC VOLUME OSCILLATIONS

Abstract When a calculation of line capacity utilization is made, a question arises as to which traffic volume to use, because of daily traffic volume oscillations. The usual approach to the calculation of line capacity utilization is based on an average daily traffic volume, increased by an oscillation coefficient and this method has been used in this paper. However, this paper gives a new approach to determining the level of the oscillation coefficient which, along with the UIC method of calculating the line capacity enables a more precise establishment of line utilization. The model is based on establishing the oscillation coefficient by a combination of reliability theory and the statistical analysis of traffic volume data. It is thereby made possible to calculate exactly, for the established oscillation coefficient, the utilization of line capacity and reliability of the line which is the subject of the analysis, viz. how many days in a year one can expect a higher number of trains and hence the traf...