Mirosław Bełej

Catastrophe Theory in Explaining Price Dynamics on the Real Estate Market

Abstract The real estate market is an open system, which implies that it is able to exchange signals with other open systems and dynamic systems. The evolution of a market system over time can be described mathematically. If the systems sensitivity threshold to external stimuli is exceeded, it becomes destabilized and moves from a near-balanced state to a state that is far from equilibrium. Those dynamic processes often induce key changes in the systems trajectory of evolution. In search of equilibrium, the system becomes transformed in a process of discontinuous and discrete changes in state variables. The above statement constitutes the research hypothesis in this article. In this study, an attempt was made to develop a mathematical model for visualizing the evolutionary path of the real estate market in the form of continuous changes interrupted by discontinuous changes. The qualitative transformation of the system will be evaluated with the use of the catastrophe theory.

Modeling the Real Estate Prices in Olsztyn under Instability Conditions

Abstract The paper deals with the description of the issues related to the dynamics of the real estate market in terms of sharp, unexpected changes in the housing prices which have been observed in the last decade in many European countries due to some macroeconomic circumstances. When such perturbations appear, the real estate market is said to be structurally unstable, since even a small variation in the control parameters might result in a large, structural change in the state of the whole system. The essential problem addressed in the paper is the need to define and discriminate between the intervals of stable and unstable real estate market development with special attention paid to the latter. The research aims at modeling hardly explored field of discontinuous changes in the real estate market in order to reveal the bifurcation edge. Assuming that the periods of sudden price changes reflect an intrinsic property of the real estate market, it is shown that the evolution path draws for most of the time a smooth curve onto the stability area of the equilibrium surface, and only briefly penetrates into the instability area to hop to another equilibrium state.

Similarities in Time-Series of Housing Prices on Local Markets in Poland

Abstract This study examined similarities between local real estate markets in Poland from 2006 - 2013 by analyzing changes in housing prices. The analyses covered five cities - all of which are major centers of their regions: Warsaw (Mazovia - the center of Poland), Bialystok (Podlasie - the east of Poland), Cracow (Malopolska - the south of Poland), Poznan (Wielkopolska - the west of Poland) and Gdansk (Pomerania - the north of Poland). The time period was chosen so that it covered an interval of rapid changes in real estate prices (a housing bubble) and their subsequent relaxation to the equilibrium state. Firstly, a multi-dimensional analysis which took into account the Chebyshev distance was employed. This helped to conduct an analysis of the correlation of price changes over time, which revealed their concurrence and, moreover, showed specific propagation delays to external stimuli, and hence could be a measure of the market’s inertia. The degree of integration of the local markets under study changed only slightly over time; therefore, a thesis can be put forth in regard to the interrelation of local real estate markets, imagined as a system of communicating vessels. In the second stage, the damped harmonic oscillator model was employed to describe the observed evolution of real estate prices. This study exhibited high inertia in real estate markets, manifested during rapid structural changes in the system’s state occurring in conditions far from equilibrium. In long-term evolution, the pace of change is slow enough for the systems to remain close to equilibrium

Study of Customer Satisfaction with Living Conditions in New Apartment Buildings

Abstract The article aims to analyze the Lithuanian housing market and to look into the satisfaction of people with living conditions in new apartment buildings on this market. The article presents the concept of customer satisfaction in construction and the criteria that define the quality of dwellings; the benefits, consequences, merits and demerits of the assessment of customer satisfaction are also named. A survey of customer satisfaction helped to evaluate the quality of dwellings according to their technical and functional parameters, as well as the degree of cooperation between customers and contractors/builders. The customer satisfaction index (CSI) and the degree of loyalty were calculated, and then a customer satisfaction matrix was built up.

The Dynamics Of Time Series Of Real Estate Prices

Abstract The presented research aims to contribute to the concerns regarding the evolutionary dynamics of the real estate market, seen as an open system flowing from one equilibrium state into another. In such quasi-stable states, real estate markets are thought to change only slightly with elapsed time, but occasionally, a sudden jump, during which the markets undergo changes of structural origin, might occur as well. Hence, the paper contains an analysis of the dynamics of time series of housing prices in order to distinguish between processes of different time scales. Research was performed assuming a priori distributions of the variables, and using the autocorrelation function together with the partial autocorrelation function for detailed data analysis.

The Influence of Financing on the Dynamics of Housing Prices

Abstract Real estate market can be thought of as an open, dynamic system. It means that it is able to exchange stimuli with other open systems, and that its state evolves in a way that might be described mathematically. It turns out that two main processes contribute to the overall evolution of the real estate market: long-term, predictable evolution, interrupted by sharp changes of catastrophic origin. In this picture, national housing funds play an important role in supporting the housing finance: on one hand they could either stimulate or suppress the real estate market influencing the availability of the mortgage credit, but on the other hand, they could also help to stabilize prices. In this study, an attempt was made to determine the degree of relationship between the volume of mortgage financing from national housing funds and the dynamics of real estate prices.

Comparative Analysis of Newly-Built Housing Quality in Poland and Lithuania

Abstract The Presented research aims to analyze the Lithuanian and Polish housing markets in terms of the quality of life in new residential buildings. The article presents the concept of customer satisfaction in construction and criteria that define the quality of dwellings; the benefits, consequences, merits and demerits of the assessment of customer satisfaction are also named. A survey of customer satisfaction helps to evaluate the quality of dwellings according to their technical and functional parameters, as well as the degree of cooperation between customers and developers/contractors. The customer satisfaction index (CSI) was calculated for both countries. The results are useful for developers, contractors, facility management companies and building users.