Mirta N. S. Bugarin

Previdência social e bem estar no Brasil

This article aims to evaluate the impact of the Brazilian General Social Security Regime (RGPS) on social welfare. To this end, an overlapping generation model calibrated to reproduce empirical facts of the countrys economy is numerically simulated. The artificial economy considers the fact that the agents life span and per period employment condition are uncertain and also includes the hypothesis of credit restriction. The results show that a pay-as-you-go social security scheme may present a welfare gain compared to a fully saving-funded system. This conclusion depends on the value attributed to the intertemporal discount factor.

Human Capital and Income Concentration in Brazil

High income concentration and poverty in Brazil have been intensively studied by Paes de Barros et al. (2000a; 2000b). In their words, “… Brazil is not a poor country, but a country with too many poor people ….” Their careful research clearly shows that high poverty rates are the result mainly of the high concentration of income and “unequal opportunities for social and economic inclusion.” Although international comparisons show that between 1978 and 1998 almost 70 percent of countries have a per capita income below Brazil’s, 10 percent of the richest families in the country have access to 50 percent of the aggregate family income, whereas 50 percent of the poorest households have only 10 percent of the same aggregate income.

Linear quadratic approximation for solving a model economy distorted by progressive taxation

This paper analyzes a progressive labor income t,ax strllctllro losing a piclccl-wiso linear qliadratic. (LQ) approximation of the ot),jec:tive function of a rcciu3ive oc:onorriy. It. is shown that the particular structure of the model at hand, namely a linear deterministic law of motion for capital formation and the exogenously given progressive tax rates, lead to a tractable problem for a computationally efficient and precise application of the LQ approach.

Simulações da previdência social brasileira: estudo de caso do Regime Jurídico Único - RJU

The article aims to analyze several alternative paths the deficit’s flow in the Brazilian public sector pension system (Regime Juridico Unico-RJU) can take under the implemented as well as proposed reforms by the Congress. To this end, actuarial methods are employed under different alternative hypothesis. The simulation show that, even under the best considered scenario, in which the country’s GDP growths at an annual rate of 3%, the RJU’s deficit will continue to increase up to 2016. In other words, only from this date on, the deficit begins to shrink, which could be cancelled off in 2090 when the regime will be closed, according to the recently proposed legal framework.

Welfare Implications of the Social Security in Brazil

This article search to evaluate the impacts of the General Regimen of Social Security (RGPS) on the well-being of the society and on some macroeconomic variables. The analysis will be made by means of the numerical simulation of a model of overlapping generations, calibrated to reproduce the main facts of the Brazilian economy, contemplating the fact of that the period of life of the agents is uncertain and incorporating in the hypothesis of restriction to the credit and the existence of uncertainty on the income of the individuals. This uncertainty is represented by the possibility of the active individuals to be dismissed in one definitive period. Amongst the conclusions it is distinguished of that a pay-as-you-go social insurance system, that guarantees a percentage of the income of the individuals, may present profits of well-being in relation to a system where all the providence is financed by the saving of the individuals.