Mitchell H. Gail

Spectrum of AIDS-associated malignant disorders

BACKGROUND To clarify which types of cancer result from AIDS, we compared the cancer experiences of people with AIDS with those of the general population by matching population-based cancer and AIDS registries in the USA and Puerto Rico. METHODS We used a probabilistic matching algorithm to compare names, birth dates, and, where available, social-security numbers of 98,336 people with AIDS and 1,125,098 people with cancer aged less than 70 years. We defined AIDS-related cancers as those with both significantly raised incidence post-AIDS and increasing prevalence from 5 years pre-AIDS to 2 years post-AIDS. FINDINGS Among people with AIDS, we found 7028 cases of Kaposis sarcoma (KS), 1793 of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), and 712 other cases of histologically defined cancer. Incidence rates among people with AIDS were increased 310-fold for KS, 113-fold for NHL, and 1.9-fold (95% CI 1.5-2.3) for other cancers. Of 38 malignant disorders other than KS and NHL, only angiosarcoma (36.7-fold), Hodgkins disease (7.6-fold), multiple myeloma (4.5-fold), brain cancer (3.5-fold), and seminoma (2.9-fold) were raised and increasing significantly (p<0.02) from the pre-AIDS to the post-AIDS period. INTERPRETATION Interpretation is complicated by screening and shared risk factors, such as sexual behaviour and cigarette smoking. However, our data indicate that AIDS leads to a significantly increased risk of Hodgkins disease, multiple myeloma, brain cancer, and seminoma. Immunological failure to control herpes or other viral infections may contribute to these malignant diseases.

A Prospective Study of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Infection and the Development of AIDS in Subjects with Hemophilia

We evaluated a multicenter cohort of 1219 subjects with hemophilia or related disorders prospectively, focusing on 319 subjects with documented dates of seroconversion to human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). The incidence rate of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) after seroconversion was 2.67 per 100 person-years and was directly related to age (from 0.83 in persons 1 to 11 years old up to 5.66 in persons 35 to 70 years old; Ptrend = 0.00003). The annual incidence of AIDS ranged from zero during the first year after seroconversion to 7 percent during the eighth year, with eight-year cumulative rates (+/- SE) of 13.3 +/- 5.3 percent for ages 1 to 17, 26.8 +/- 6.4 percent for ages 18 to 34, and 43.7 +/- 16.4 percent for ages 35 to 70. Serial immunologic and virologic markers (total numbers of CD4 lymphocytes, presence of serum interferon or HIV-1 p24 antigen, and low or absent serum levels of anti-p24 or anti-gp120) predicted a high risk for the subsequent development of AIDS. Adults 35 to 70 years old had a higher incidence of low CD4 counts than younger subjects (P less than or equal to 0.005), whereas adolescents had a low rate of anti-p24 loss (P = 0.0007) and subjects 1 to 17 years old had a lower incidence of AIDS after loss of anti-p24 (P = 0.03). These findings not only demonstrate that the risk of AIDS is related directly to age but also suggest that older adults are disproportionately affected during the earlier phases of HIV disease, that adolescents may have a low replication rate of HIV, and that children and adolescents may tolerate severe immunodeficiency better because they have fewer other infections or because of some unmeasured, age-dependent cofactor or immune alteration in the later phase of HIV disease.

Estimation of effect size distribution from genome-wide association studies and implications for future discoveries

We report a set of tools to estimate the number of susceptibility loci and the distribution of their effect sizes for a trait on the basis of discoveries from existing genome-wide association studies (GWASs). We propose statistical power calculations for future GWASs using estimated distributions of effect sizes. Using reported GWAS findings for height, Crohns disease and breast, prostate and colorectal (BPC) cancers, we determine that each of these traits is likely to harbor additional loci within the spectrum of low-penetrance common variants. These loci, which can be identified from sufficiently powerful GWASs, together could explain at least 15–20% of the known heritability of these traits. However, for BPC cancers, which have modest familial aggregation, our analysis suggests that risk models based on common variants alone will have modest discriminatory power (63.5% area under curve), even with new discoveries.

Cancer Burden in the HIV-Infected Population in the United States

BACKGROUND Effective antiretroviral therapy has reduced the risk of AIDS and dramatically prolonged the survival of HIV-infected people in the United States. Consequently, an increasing number of HIV-infected people are at risk of non-AIDS-defining cancers that typically occur at older ages. We estimated the annual number of cancers in the HIV-infected population, both with and without AIDS, in the United States. METHODS Incidence rates for individual cancer types were obtained from the HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study by linking 15 HIV and cancer registries in the United States. Estimated counts of the US HIV-infected and AIDS populations were obtained from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveillance data. We obtained estimated counts of AIDS-defining (ie, Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and cervical cancer) and non-AIDS-defining cancers in the US AIDS population during 1991-2005 by multiplying cancer incidence rates and AIDS population counts, stratified by year, age, sex, race and ethnicity, transmission category, and AIDS-relative time. We tested trends in counts and standardized incidence rates using linear regression models. We multiplied overall cancer rates and HIV-only (HIV infected, without AIDS) population counts, available from 34 US states during 2004-2007, to estimate cancers in the HIV-only population. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS The US AIDS population expanded fourfold from 1991 to 2005 (96,179 to 413,080) largely because of an increase in the number of people aged 40 years or older. During 1991-2005, an estimated 79 656 cancers occurred in the AIDS population. From 1991-1995 to 2001-2005, the estimated number of AIDS-defining cancers decreased by greater than threefold (34,587 to 10,325 cancers; P(trend) < .001), whereas non-AIDS-defining cancers increased by approximately threefold (3193 to 10,059 cancers; P(trend) < .001). From 1991-1995 to 2001-2005, estimated counts increased for anal (206 to 1564 cancers), liver (116 to 583 cancers), prostate (87 to 759 cancers), and lung cancers (875 to 1882 cancers), and Hodgkin lymphoma (426 to 897 cancers). In the HIV-only population in 34 US states, an estimated 2191 non-AIDS-defining cancers occurred during 2004-2007, including 454 lung, 166 breast, and 154 anal cancers. CONCLUSIONS Over a 15-year period (1991-2005), increases in non-AIDS-defining cancers were mainly driven by growth and aging of the AIDS population. This growing burden requires targeted cancer prevention and treatment strategies.

Early menopause in long-term survivors of cancer during adolescence

Objective: We attempted to investigate the risk of early menopause after treatment for cancer during childhood or adolescence. Study Design: We interviewed 1067 women in whom cancer was diagnosed before age 20, who were at least 5-year survivors, and who were still menstruating at age 21. Self-reported menopause status in survivors was compared with that in 1599 control women. Results: Cancer survivors, with disease diagnosed between ages 13 and 19, had a risk of menopause four times greater than that of controls during the ages 21 to 25; the risk relative to controls declined thereafter. Significantly increased relative risks of menopause during the early 20s occurred after treatment with either radiotherapy alone (relative risk 3.7) or alkylating agents alone (relative risk 9.2). During ages 21 to 25 the risk of menopause increased 27-fold for women treated with both radiation below the diaphragm and alkylating agent chemotherapy. By age 31, 42% of these women had reached menopause compared with 5% for controls. Conclusions: Treatment for cancer during adolescence carries a substantial risk for early menopause among women still menstruating at age 21. Increasing use of radiation and chemotherapy, together with the continued trend toward delayed childbearing, suggests that these women should be made aware of their smaller window of fertility so that they can plan their families accordingly.

Performance of common genetic variants in breast-cancer risk models.

BACKGROUND Genomewide association studies have identified multiple genetic variants associated with breast cancer. The extent to which these variants add to existing risk-assessment models is unknown. METHODS We used information on traditional risk factors and 10 common genetic variants associated with breast cancer in 5590 case subjects and 5998 control subjects, 50 to 79 years of age, from four U.S. cohort studies and one case-control study from Poland to fit models of the absolute risk of breast cancer. With the use of receiver-operating-characteristic curve analysis, we calculated the area under the curve (AUC) as a measure of discrimination. By definition, random classification of case and control subjects provides an AUC of 50%; perfect classification provides an AUC of 100%. We calculated the fraction of case subjects in quintiles of estimated absolute risk after the addition of genetic variants to the traditional risk model. RESULTS The AUC for a risk model with age, study and entry year, and four traditional risk factors was 58.0%; with the addition of 10 genetic variants, the AUC was 61.8%. About half the case subjects (47.2%) were in the same quintile of risk as in a model without genetic variants; 32.5% were in a higher quintile, and 20.4% were in a lower quintile. CONCLUSIONS The inclusion of newly discovered genetic factors modestly improved the performance of risk models for breast cancer. The level of predicted breast-cancer risk among most women changed little after the addition of currently available genetic information.

Biased selection of controls for case-control analyses of cohort studies.

It is known that unbiased estimates of the relative risk in a cohort study may be obtained by a matched case-control analysis that compares each case with a random sample of controls obtained from those at risk at the time of case incidence. Through inadvertence , or for practical or scientific reasons, a biased referent group may be selected instead. Three kinds of biasing restrictions on controls are commonly imposed: (i) the requirement that controls remain completely disease-free for a fixed time interval, (ii) the exclusion of all cases incident during observation as controls, and (iii) the exclusion, from the referent group, of subjects who develop other diseases, which may be related to the exposure of interest. The bias in estimation of the relative risk associated with each of these restrictions is evaluated under the proportional-hazards model. For several examples of cancer mortality data, the bias from (iii) appears quite small, whereas the bias from (i) can be appreciable and is mostly attributable to the bias from case exclusion (ii). The effect of random variation in the time of onset of exposure is to reduce these biases.

Considerations in the evaluation of surrogate endpoints in clinical trials : Summary of a National Institutes of Health Workshop

We report on recommendations from a National Institutes of Health Workshop on methods for evaluating the use of surrogate endpoints in clinical trials, which was attended by experts in biostatistics and clinical trials from a broad array of disease areas. Recent advances in biosciences and technology have increased the ability to understand, measure, and model biological mechanisms; appropriate application of these advances in clinical research settings requires collaboration of quantitative and laboratory scientists. Biomarkers, new examples of which arise rapidly from new technologies, are used frequently in such areas as early detection of disease and identification of patients most likely to benefit from new therapies. There is also scientific interest in exploring whether, and under what conditions, biomarkers may substitute for clinical endpoints of phase III trials, although workshop participants agreed that these considerations apply primarily to situations where trials using clinical endpoints are not feasible. Evaluating candidate biomarkers in the exploratory phases of drug development and investigating surrogate endpoints in confirmatory trials require the establishment of a statistical and inferential framework. As a first step, participants reviewed methods for investigating the degree to which biomarkers can explain or predict the effect of treatments on clinical endpoints measured in clinical trials. They also suggested new approaches appropriate in settings where biomarkers reflect only indirectly the important processes on the causal path to clinical disease and where biomarker measurement errors are of concern. Participants emphasized the need for further research on development of such models, whether they are empirical in nature or attempt to describe mechanisms in mathematical terms. Of special interest were meta-analytic models for combining information from multiple studies involving interventions for the same condition. Recommendations also included considerations for design and conduct of trials and for assemblage of databases needed for such research. Finally, there was a strong recommendation for increased training of quantitative scientists in biologic research as well as in statistical methods and modeling to ensure that there will be an adequate workforce to meet future research needs.

Randomized clinical trials. Perspectives on some recent ideas.

In spite of the controversy over the role of randomized clinical trials in medical research, the rationale underlying such trials remains persuasive as compared to recent suggestions for alternative non-randomized studies such as those relying on the use of historical controls and adjustment technics. Others have suggested that recent statistical innovations for improving clinical trials, including adaptive allocation of treatment to patients and sequential stopping procedures, are underutilized. These innovations, though theoretically interesting, are not easily adapted to large-scale, complex medical trials in which there may be multiple end points and delayed response times. Ethical considerations suggest that randomized trials are more suitable than uncontrolled experimentation in protecting the interests of patients. Randomized clinical trials remain the most reliable method for evaluating the efficacy of therapies.

A shared susceptibility locus in PLCE1 at 10q23 for gastric adenocarcinoma and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

We conducted a genome-wide association study of gastric cancer and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in ethnic Chinese subjects in which we genotyped 551,152 SNPs. We report a combined analysis of 2,240 gastric cancer cases, 2,115 ESCC cases and 3,302 controls drawn from five studies. In logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex and study, multiple variants at 10q23 had genome-wide significance for gastric cancer and ESCC independently. A notable signal was rs2274223, a nonsynonymous SNP located in PLCE1, for gastric cancer (P = 8.40 × 10−9; per-allele odds ratio (OR) = 1.31) and ESCC (P = 3.85 × 10−9; OR = 1.34). The association with gastric cancer differed by anatomic subsite. For tumors in the cardia the association was stronger (P = 4.19 × 10−15; OR = 1.57), and for those in the noncardia stomach it was absent (P = 0.44; OR = 1.05). Our findings at 10q23 could provide insight into the high incidence of both cancers in China.