Moctar Camara

Interannual variability of rainfall over the Sahel based on multiple regional climate models simulations

We analyse the interannual variability of the averaged summer monsoon rainfall over the Sahel from multiple regional climate models driven by the ERA-interim reanalysis and seek to provide effective information for future modelling work. We find that the majority of the models are able to reproduce the rainfall variability with correlation coefficient exceeding 0.5 compared with observations. This is due to a good representation of the dynamics of the main monsoon features of the West African climate such as the monsoon flux, African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ). Among the models, only HIRHAM fails to reproduce the rainfall variability exhibiting hence a correlation coefficient of −0.2. This deficiency originates from the fact that HIRHAM does not properly capture the variability of monsoon flow and the relationship between rainfall and the AEJ dynamic. We conclude that a good performance of a regional climate model in simulating the monsoon dynamical features variability is of primary importance for a better representation of the interannual variability of rainfall over the Sahel.

Coastal observations of weather features in Senegal during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis Special Observing Period 3

During 15 August through 30 September 2006 (Special Observing Period 3, SOP3), key weather measurements are obtained from ground and aircraft platforms during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis campaign. Key measurements are aimed at investigating African easterly waves (AEWs) and mesoscale convective systems in a coastal environment as they transition to the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Ground and aircraft instruments include polarimetric radar, a coarse and a high-density rain gauge network, surface chemical measurements, 12 m meteorological measurement, broadband IR, solar and microwave measurements, rawinsonde, aircraft dropsonde, lidar, and cloud radar measurements. Ground observations during SOP3 show that Senegal was influenced by 5 squall lines, 6 Saharan air layer intrusions, and 10 AEWs. Downstream tropical cyclones developed were associated with the passage of four AEWs. FA-20 aircraft measurements of microphysical aspects of 22 September squall line and several nondeveloping AEWs over the extreme eastern Atlantic Ocean are presented.

Impacts of aerosols on available solar energy at Mbour, Senegal

This study aims to evaluate the available solar potential (direct normal on the overall horizontal plane) and to estimate the observed impact of aerosols on solar radiation at Mbour, Senegal (16.958 °W; 14. 394 °N) using observations from solar instruments and AERONET during 2006. The results show the presence of a good available solar potential. At intra-seasonal timescale, the total and direct normal energy are stronger in May with a mean value of 7 kWh/m2/day and February with an average value of 5.50 kWh/m2/day. The lower available total and direct normal solar energies are, respectively, found in August (5.31 kWh/m2/day) and July (2.90 kWh/m2/day). The observations of AERONET show that aerosol optical depth values are higher in June (0.7) and lower in February (0.16). These results are consistent with the observed trends of total and direct normal energy during those months. Case studies of the influence of aerosols on available solar energy show a mean decrease of 10% and 28%, respectively, for the ...

Impacts of the Sahel-Sahara Interface Reforestation on West African Climate: Intraseasonal Variability and Extreme Precipitation Events

This study aims to evaluate the impacts of the Sahel-Sahara interface reforestation on spatiotemporal variability of the summer rainfall and extreme precipitation events over West Africa using the RegCM4 model. The land surface scheme of RegCM4 was modified to incorporate an East-West reforested zone (15°N and 20°N). Two runs were performed using the standard version of RegCM4 and the modified one of the same model taking into account the incorporated forest. The reforestation significantly modifies rainfall signal over West Africa by increasing it over the reforested zone and the Fouta Jallon highlands (FJH). This rainfall increase is associated with a strengthening of the atmospheric moisture over the reforested area. This atmospheric moisture content increase associated with the wind dynamic may explain the spatiotemporal change of the rainfall and extreme precipitation events. The analysis of the impacts of the reforestation on some rainfall indices shows an increase of the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles over the reforested zone and off the FJH. This reforestation also causes an increase of the maximum length of the consecutive wet days over and off FJH and a decrease of the maximum length of the consecutive dry days over the northern Sahel and the reforested zone.

Changes in climate extremes over West and Central Africa at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming

In this study, we investigate changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over West and Central Africa (hereafter, WAF domain) as a function of global mean temperature with a focus on the implications of global warming of 1.5 ◦C and 2 ◦C according the Paris Agreement. We applied a scaling approach to capture changes in climate extremes with increase in global mean temperature in several subregions within the WAF domain: Western Sahel, Central Sahel, Eastern Sahel, Guinea Coast and Central Africa including Congo Basin. While there are several uncertainties and large ensemble spread in the projections of temperature and precipitation indices, most models show high-impact changes in climate extremes at subregional scale. At these smaller scales, temperature increases within the WAF domain are projected to be higher than the global mean temperature increase (at 1.5 ◦C and at 2 ◦C) and heat waves are expected to be more frequent and of longer duration. The most intense warming is observed over the drier regions of the Sahel, in the central Sahel and particularly in the eastern Sahel, where the precipitation and the soil moisture anomalies have the highest probability of projected increase at a global warming of 1.5 ◦C. Over the wetter regions of the Guinea Coast and Central Africa, models project a weak change in total precipitation and a decrease of the length of wet spells, while these two regions have the highest increase of heavy rainfall in the WAF domain at a global warming of 1.5 ◦C. Western Sahel is projected by 80% of the models to experience the strongest drying with a significant increase in the length of dry spells and a decrease in the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. This study suggests that the ‘dry gets drier, wet gets wetter’ paradigm is not valid within the WAF domain.