Mohammad Safeeq

Temperature impacts on the water year 2014 drought in California

©2015. American Geophysical Union. California is experiencing one of the worst droughts on record. We use a hydrological model and risk assessment framework to understand the influence of temperature on the water year (WY) 2014 drought in California and examine the probability that this drought would have been less severe if temperatures resembled the historical climatology. Our results indicate that temperature played an important role in exacerbating the WY 2014 drought severity. We found that if WY 2014 temperatures resembled the 1916-2012 climatology, there would have been at least an 86% chance that winter snow water equivalent and spring-summer soil moisture and runoff deficits would have been less severe than the observed conditions. We also report that the temperature forecast skill in California for the important seasons of winter and spring is negligible, beyond a lead time of 1month, which we postulate might hinder skillful drought prediction in California.

Increasing synchrony of high temperature and low flow in western North American streams: double trouble for coldwater biota?

Flow and temperature are strongly linked environmental factors driving ecosystem processes in streams. Stream temperature maxima (Tmax_w) and stream flow minima (Qmin) can create periods of stress for aquatic organisms. In mountainous areas, such as western North America, recent shifts toward an earlier spring peak flow and decreases in low flow during summer/fall have been reported. We hypothesized that an earlier peak flow could be shifting the timing of low flow and leading to a decrease in the interval between Tmax_w and Qmin. We also examined if years with extreme low Qmin were associated with years of extreme high Tmax_w. We tested these hypotheses using long-term data from 22 minimally human-influenced streams for the period 1950–2010. We found trends toward a shorter time lag between Tmax_w and Qmin over time and a strong negative association between their magnitudes. Our findings show that aquatic biota may be increasingly experiencing narrower time windows to recover or adapt between these extreme events of low flow and high temperature. This study highlights the importance of evaluating multiple environmental drivers to better gage the effects of the recent climate variability in freshwaters.

Can air temperature be used to project influences of climate change on stream temperature

Worldwide, lack of data on stream temperature has motivated the use of regression-based statistical models to predict stream temperatures based on more widely available data on air temperatures. Such models have been widely applied to project responses of stream temperatures under climate change, but the performance of these models has not been fully evaluated. To address this knowledge gap, we examined the performance of two widely used linear and nonlinear regression models that predict stream temperatures based on air temperatures. We evaluated model performance and temporal stability of model parameters in a suite of regulated and unregulated streams with 11–44 years of stream temperature data. Although such models may have validity when predicting stream temperatures within the span of time that corresponds to the data used to develop them, model predictions did not transfer well to other time periods. Validation of model predictions of most recent stream temperatures, based on air temperature–stream temperature relationships from previous time periods often showed poor performance when compared with observed stream temperatures. Overall, model predictions were less robust in regulated streams and they frequently failed in detecting the coldest and warmest temperatures within all sites. In many cases, the magnitude of errors in these predictions falls within a range that equals or exceeds the magnitude of future projections of climate-related changes in stream temperatures reported for the region we studied (between 0.5 and 3.0 °C by 2080). The limited ability of regression-based statistical models to accurately project stream temperatures over time likely stems from the fact that underlying processes at play, namely the heat budgets of air and water, are distinctive in each medium and vary among localities and through time. S Online supplementary data available from stacks.iop.org/ERL/9/084015/mmedia

Testing the recent snow drought as an analog for climate warming sensitivity of Cascades snowpacks

Record low snowpack conditions were observed at Snow Telemetry stations in the Cascades Mountains, USA during the winters of 2014 and 2015. We tested the hypothesis that these winters are analogs for the temperature sensitivity of Cascades snowpacks. In the Oregon Cascades, the 2014 and 2015 winter air temperature anomalies were approximately +2 °C and +4 °C above the climatological mean. We used a spatially distributed snowpack energy balance model to simulate the sensitivity of multiple snowpack metrics to a +2 °C and +4 °C warming and compared our modeled sensitivities to observed values during 2014 and 2015. We found that for each +1 °C warming, modeled basin-mean peak snow water equivalent (SWE) declined by 22%–30%, the date of peak SWE (DPS) advanced by 13 days, the duration of snow cover (DSC) shortened by 31–34 days, and the snow disappearance date (SDD) advanced by 22–25 days. Our hypothesis was not borne out by the observations except in the case of peak SWE; other snow metrics did not resemble predicted values based on modeled sensitivities and thus are not effective analogs of future temperature sensitivities. Rather than just temperature, it appears that the magnitude and phasing of winter precipitation events, such as large, late spring snowfall, controlled the DPS, SDD, and DSC.

Local variability mediates vulnerability of trout populations to land use and climate change

Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007–2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.

Mechanisms controlling the impact of multi-year drought on mountain hydrology

Mountain runoff ultimately reflects the difference between precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (ET), as modulated by biogeophysical mechanisms that intensify or alleviate drought impacts. These modulating mechanisms are seldom measured and not fully understood. The impact of the warm 2012–15 California drought on the heavily instrumented Kings River basin provides an extraordinary opportunity to enumerate four mechanisms that controlled the impact of drought on mountain hydrology. Two mechanisms intensified the impact: (i) evaporative processes have first access to local precipitation, which decreased the fractional allocation of P to runoff in 2012–15 and reduced P-ET by 30% relative to previous years, and (ii) 2012–15 was 1 °C warmer than the previous decade, which increased ET relative to previous years and reduced P-ET by 5%. The other two mechanisms alleviated the impact: (iii) spatial heterogeneity and the continuing supply of runoff from higher elevations increased 2012–15 P-ET by 10% relative to that expected for a homogenous basin, and iv) drought-associated dieback and wildfire thinned the forest and decreased ET, which increased 2016 P-ET by 15%. These mechanisms are all important and may offset each other; analyses that neglect one or more will over or underestimate the impact of drought and warming on mountain runoff.

Comparing Large-Scale Hydrological Model Predictions with Observed Streamflow in the Pacific Northwest: Effects of Climate and Groundwater

Assessing uncertainties in hydrologic models can improve accuracy in predicting future streamflow. Here, simulated streamflows using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model at coarse ( 1 /168) and fine ( 1 /1208) spatial resolutions were evaluated against observed streamflows from 217 watersheds. In particular, the adequacy of VIC simulations in groundwater- versus runoff-dominated watersheds using a range of flow metrics relevant for water supply and aquatic habitat was examined. These flow metrics were 1) total annual streamflow; 2) total fall, winter, spring, and summer season streamflows; and 3) 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th flow percentiles. The effect of climate on model performance was also evaluated by comparing the observed and simulated streamflow sensitivities to temperature and precipitation. Model performance was evaluated using four quantitative statistics: nonparametric rank correlation r, normalized Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency NNSE, root-mean-square error RMSE, and percent bias PBIAS. The VIC model captured the sensitivity of streamflow for temperature better than for precipitation and was in poor agreement with the corresponding temperature and precipitation sensitivities derived from observed streamflow. The model was able to capture the hydrologic behavior of the study watersheds with reasonable accuracy. Both total streamflow and flow percentiles, however, are subject to strong systematic model bias. For example, summer streamflows were underpredicted (PBIAS 52 13%) in groundwater-dominated watersheds and overpredicted (PBIAS 5 48%) in runoff-dominated watersheds. Similarly, the 5th flow percentile was underpredicted (PBIAS 5 251%) in groundwater-dominated watersheds and overpredicted (PBIAS 5 19%) in runoff-dominated watersheds. These results provide a foundation for improving model parameterization and calibration in ungauged basins.

Linking hydroclimate to fish phenology and habitat use with ichthyographs

Streamflow and water temperature (hydroclimate) influence the life histories of aquatic biota. The relationship between streamflow and temperature varies with climate, hydrogeomorphic setting, and season. Life histories of native fishes reflect, in part, their adaptation to regional hydroclimate (flow and water temperature), local habitats, and natural disturbance regimes, all of which may be affected by water management. Alterations to natural hydroclimates, such as those caused by river regulation or climate change, can modify the suitability and variety of in-stream habitat for fishes throughout the year. Here, we present the ichthyograph, a new empirically-based graphical tool to help visualize relationships between hydroclimate and fish phenology. Generally, this graphical tool can be used to display a variety of phenotypic traits. We used long-term data sets of daily fish passage to examine linkages between hydroclimate and the expression of life-history phenology by native fishes. The ichthyograph may be used to characterize the environmental phenology for fishes across multiple spatio-temporal domains. We illustrate the ichthyograph in two applications to visualize: 1) river use for the community of fishes at a specific location; and 2) stream conditions at multiple locations within the river network for one species at different life-history stages. The novel, yet simple, ichthyograph offers a flexible framework to enable transformations in thinking regarding relationships between hydroclimate and aquatic species across space and time. The potential broad application of this innovative tool promotes synergism between assessments of physical characteristics and the biological needs of aquatic species.

Groundwater and Surface Water Interactions in Relation to Natural and Anthropogenic Environmental Changes

Groundwater and surface water interaction is an essential component of the hydrological cycle. The hydraulic connectivity and exchange of water between surface water (e.g. rivers, lakes, wetlands) and underlying aquifers provide many ecosystem services that sustain human and ecological well-being. Climate change, increased population, and industrial growth have resulted in substantial environmental (e.g. land use and land cover, climate, groundwater) changes across the globe. As a result, decline in groundwater levels, drying of streams, shrinking lakes, wetlands, and estuaries have been observed across the world. This generates concerns about the effects of such environmental changes on groundwater and surface water interactions, and on the quality and quantity of water resources. This chapter presents an overview of groundwater and surface water interactions, pressing environmental change issues centered on natural and anthropogenic environmental changes, and available management tools that quantify the integrated groundwater and surface water flow processes. This chapter also briefly discusses exciting research opportunities enabled by satellite remote sensing. We close in with a discussion of future management challenges and strategies for sustainable use of groundwater and surface water resources. One outcome of this chapter is to provide resource managers, researchers, consultant groups, and government agencies basic understanding of the types, mechanism, and effects of natural and anthropogenic landuse changes on groundwater and surface water interactions, and available management tools for studying groundwater and surface water interactions.

Scenario‐Based and Scenario‐Neutral Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Operational Performance of a Multipurpose Reservoir

Scenario-based and scenario-neutral impacts assessment approaches provide complementary information about how climate change-driven effects on streamflow may change the operational performance of multipurpose dams. Examining a case study of Cougar Dam in Oregon, United States, we simulated current reservoir operations under scenarios of plausible future hydrology. Streamflow projections from the CGCM3.1 general circulation model for the A1B emission scenario were used to generate stochastic reservoir inflows that were then further perturbed to simulate a potentially drier future. These were then used to drive a simple reservoir model. In the scenario-based analysis, we found reservoir operations are vulnerable to climate change. Increases in fall and winter inflow could lead to more frequent flood storage, reducing flexibility to store incoming flood flows. Uncertainty in spring inflow volume complicates projection of future filling performance. The reservoir may fill more or less often, depending on whether springs are wetter or drier. In the summer, drawdown may occur earlier to meet conservation objectives. From the scenario-neutral analysis, we identified thresholds of streamflow magnitude that can predict climate change impacts for a wide range of scenarios. Our results highlight projected operational challenges for Cougar Dam and provide an example of how scenario-based and scenario-neutral approaches may be applied concurrently to assess climate change impacts.