Mordechai E. Kreinin

Determinants of International Trade Flows

THIS paper models and estimates import demand and demand for export functions for 19 industrial countries. Although primary emphasis is placed on the period of generalized floating exchange rates, 1972 through 1980, estimates are also provided for the fixed exchange rate years (1957-1970), thus making possible a comparison between the two eras. Aside from the conventional income and price variables, the paper assesses the effect of variations in the exchange rate and in the expected exchange rate, on real trade flows. Additionally, it estimates an unrestricted lag structure of the effect of price and exchange rate variations on imports.

Analysis of Performance Standards for Direct Foreign Investments

Within the framework of a duopolistic model, we investigate the impact of foreign investment standards on welfare, output, and employment. Minimum local content and export requirements reduce world output, world welfare, and the source countrys welfare. Under certain conditions, the decline in host countrys consumer surplus resulting from diminished competition outweighs the shift of monopoly rent from the source countrys firm to the host countrys firm. Minimum content standards can increase host countrys employment, but only to a point. Marginal increases in the content requirement can actually reduce employment as the magnitude of foreign investment declines.

DISAGGREGATED IMPORT DEMAND FUNCTIONS- FURTHER RESULTS

A recent article in this Journal presented estimates of U.S. import-demand functions disaggregated by commodity groups and supplying countries [2]. In it, references were made to an unpublished paper which I had previously completed on the same subject, and in view of the interest generated by the estimates, it is useful to make them public. My estimates differ from those of Price and Thornblade in that they disaggregate U.S. imports only by commodity and not by country of origin. On the other hand, estimates of import-demand elasticities are supplied also for countries other than the U.S. Because the methodology used is roughly similar to the one used by Price and Thornblade, only a short account will be given. The basic estimating equation is the following import-demand function:

Effects on the U.S.-Japan Auto VER on European Prices and on U.S. Welfare

This paper highlights the impact of voluntary export restrictions (VERs) on the nonrestricted supplier by investigating the effect of the U.S.-Japan auto VER on the behavior of European producers. Using three independent approaches (supply functions, hedonic regressions, and casual evidence), it shows that European producers raised prices by nearly one third. U.S. welfare loss to Europe (

Effects of economic integration in industrial countries on ASEAN and the Asian NIEs

3.4 billion in 1984) actually exceeded its loss to Japan (

Differential response of U.S. import prices and quantities to exchange-rate adjustments

2.4 billion), and the small social loss within the United States. Total annual cost of a job saved in the industry was

Import quotas and VERs : A comparative analysis in a three-country framework

181,000. Copyright 1988 by MIT Press.

“Natural” economic blocs: an alternative formulation

Abstract This paper assesses the effect of the proposed North American Free Trade Area, the second enlargement of the European Community (EC) and EC-1992 on Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and South Korea. By matching the commodities exported by ASEAN or South Korea to an integrating market (such as the United States) with those exported to the same market from “internal” sources (such as Canada), it identifies the industries that would bear the brunt of the discrimination. Total trade diversion is estimated (as a terms-of-trade effect) at 4% of ASEAN exports and 5% of South Korean exports to North America; and 8 and 5% of their respective exports to the EC. EC-1992 is expected to have further discriminatory influences. The effect of integration on direct foreign investment in ASEAN and South Korea is also evaluated.

Accuracy of OECD and IMF Projection

ZusammenfassungUnterschiedliche Reaktionen der amerikanischen Importpreise und-mengen auf Wechselkursanpassungen. - Dieser Aufsatz stellt einen ersten Versuch dar, für verschiedene Industrien die Wirkung von Wechselkursänderungen auf Preise und Mengen der Importgüter zu analysieren. Es werden Theoreme auf dem Gebiet der Industrieorganisation und des internationalen Handels herangezogen, wenn untersucht wird, welchen Einfluß branchenspezifische Besonderheiten auf die von Industriezweig zu Industriezweig unterschiedlichen wechselkursbedingten Preis- und Mengenreaktionen haben. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, daß solche Besonderheiten tatsächlich das Ausmaß beeinflussen, in dem sich Wechselkursbewegungen in Veränderungen der Dollarpreise ausländischer Güter niederschlagen. Sie deuten außerdem darauf hin, daß die Art dieses Einflusses von Land zu Land und je nach Richtung der Dollarkursschwankungen unterschiedlich ist.RésuméRéponse différentielle des prix et quantités des importations des E.U. aux ajustements des taux de change. - Cette étude est la première qui essaie d’analyser pour les branches de l’industrie l’effet des changements de taux de change sur les prix et les quantités des biens commercés. Basée sur des théorèmes de l’organisation industrielle et de la théorie du commerce international, elle examine l’effet des caractéristiques des branches industrielles sur les réponses différentielles de prix et de quantité des importations des E.U. aux mouvements des taux de change. Les résultats suggèrent que les caractéristiques des branches influencent la mesure avec laquelle les mouvements des taux de change sont transmis aux changements en prix dollar des biens étrangers. Les auteurs aussi concluent que cette influence varie selon les pays et la direction du mouvement du dollar.ResumenLa respuesta diferenciada del precio y la cantidad de las importaciones de los EE UU a ajustes en la tasa de cambio. - Este trabajo représenta un primer intento de realizar un anâlisis del efecto de ajustes en la tasa de cambio sobre los precios y las cantidades de los bienes négociables a nivel de ramas industriales. Se basa en la teoría de la organización industrial y en la del comercio internacional al examinar el impacto de las características de las industrias sobre las respuestas diferenciadas del precio y la cantidad de las importaciones de los EE UU a movimientos en la tasa de cambio. Los resultados sugieren que las características de las industrias influencian la medida en la cual los movimientos de la tasa de cambio son transmitidos a los precios en dólares de los bienes extranjeros. Los resultados también sugieren que esa influencia varía de país a país y al cambiar el sentido de los movimientos del dólar.

Supplier Preferences and Dumping: An Analysis of Japanese Corporate Groups*

Abstract Because a VER is inherently discriminatory, the traditional two-country analysis comparing it to a quota is inadequate. This paper adopts a general-equilibrium, three-country approach to compare tariffs, quotas, and VERs; a quota-equivalent VER is defined alternatively in terms of quantity or price. The welfare of the importing country is higher under a quota and that of the non-restricted exporter is higher under a VER. The welfare comparison for the VER-restricted country is ambiguous, a result which is at variance with conventional wisdom.