Morris L. Weisman

A Theory for Strong, Long-Lived Squall Lines

Abstract We study herein the mechanics of long-lived, line-oriented, precipitating cumulus convection (squall lines) using two- and three-dimensional numerical models of moist convection. These models, used in juxtaposition, enable us to address the important theoretical issue of whether a squall line is a system of special, long-lived cells, or whether it is a long-lived system of ordinary, short-lived cells. Our review of the observational literature indicates that the latter is the most consistent paradigm for the vast majority of cases but, on occasion, a squall line may be composed of essentially steady, supercell thunderstorms. The numerical experiments presented herein show that either type of squall line may develop from an initial line-like disturbance depending on the magnitude and orientation of the environmental shear with respect to the line. With shallow shear, oriented perpendicular to the line, a long-lived line evolves containing individually short-lived cells. Our analysis of this type o...

The dependence of numerically simulated convective storms on vertical wind shear and buoyancy

Abstract The effects of vertical wind shear and buoyancy on convective storm structure and evolution are investigated with the use of a three-dimensional numerical cloud model. By varying the magnitude of buoyant energy and one-directional vertical shear over a wide range of environmental conditions associated with severe storms, the model is able to produce a spectrum of storm types qualitatively similar to those observed in nature. These include short-lived single cells, certain types of multicells and rotating supercells. The relationship between wind shear and buoyancy is expressed in terms of a nondimensional convective parameter which delineates various regimes of storm structure and, in particular, suggests optimal conditions for the development of supercell type storms. Applications of this parameter to well-documented severe storm cases agree favorably with the model results, suggesting both the value of the model in studying these modes of convection as well as the value of this representation i...

The Resolution Dependence of Explicitly Modeled Convective Systems

Abstract The representation of convective processes within mesoscale models with horizontal grid sizes smaller than 20 km has become a major concern for the simulation of mesoscale weather systems. In this paper, the authors investigate the effects of grid resolution on convective processes using a nonhydrostatic cloud model to help clarify the capabilities and limitations of using explicit physics to resolve convection in mesoscale models. By varying the horizontal grid interval between 1 and 12 km, the degradation in model response as the resolution is decreased is documented and the processes that are not properly represented with the coarser resolutions are identified. Results from quasi-three-dimensional squall-line simulations for midlatitude-type environments suggest that resolutions of 4 km are sufficient to reproduce much of the mesoscale structure and evolution of the squall-line-type convective systems produced in 1-km simulations. The evolution at coarser resolutions is characteristically slow...

The structure and classification of numerically simulated convective storms in directionally varying wind shears

Abstract Using a three-dimensional numerical cloud model, we investigate the effects of directionally varying wind shear on convective storm structure and evolution over a wide range of shear magnitudes. As with a previous series of experiments using unidirectional wind shear profiles (Weisman and Klemp), the current results evince a spectrum of storm types ranging from short lived single cells at low shears, multicells at intermediate shears, to supercells at high shears. With a clockwise curved hodograph, the supercellular growth is confined to the right flank of the storm system while multicellular growth is favored on the left flank. An analysis of the dynamic structure of the various cells reveals that the quasi-steady supercell updrafts are strongly enhanced by dynamically induced pressure gradients on the right flank of the storm system. We use this feature along with other related storm characteristics (such as updraft rotation) to propose a dynamically based storm classification scheme. Following...

Experiences with 0-36-h Explicit Convective Forecasts with the WRF-ARW Model

Abstract Herein, a summary of the authors’ experiences with 36-h real-time explicit (4 km) convective forecasts with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) during the 2003–05 spring and summer seasons is presented. These forecasts are compared to guidance obtained from the 12-km operational Eta Model, which employed convective parameterization (e.g., Betts–Miller–Janjic). The results suggest significant value added for the high-resolution forecasts in representing the convective system mode (e.g., for squall lines, bow echoes, mesoscale convective vortices) as well as in representing the diurnal convective cycle. However, no improvement could be documented in the overall guidance as to the timing and location of significant convective outbreaks. Perhaps the most notable result is the overall strong correspondence between the Eta and WRF-ARW guidance, for both good and bad forecasts, suggesting the overriding influence of larger scales of forcing on convective development in...

Some Practical Considerations Regarding Horizontal Resolution in the First Generation of Operational Convection-Allowing NWP

Abstract During the 2005 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment two different high-resolution configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) model were used to produce 30-h forecasts 5 days a week for a total of 7 weeks. These configurations used the same physical parameterizations and the same input dataset for the initial and boundary conditions, differing primarily in their spatial resolution. The first set of runs used 4-km horizontal grid spacing with 35 vertical levels while the second used 2-km grid spacing and 51 vertical levels. Output from these daily forecasts is analyzed to assess the numerical forecast sensitivity to spatial resolution in the upper end of the convection-allowing range of grid spacing. The focus is on the central United States and the time period 18–30 h after model initialization. The analysis is based on a combination of visual comparison, systematic subjective verification conducted during the Spring Experiment, and objectiv...

Structure and Evolution of Numerically Simulated Squall Lines

Abstract Using a three-dimensional numerical cloud model, we investigate the effects of vertical wind shear on squall-line structure and evolution over a wide range of shear magnitudes, depths, and orientations relative to the line. We find that the simulated squall lines are most sensitive to the magnitude of the component of shear perpendicular to the line, and that we may reproduce much of the range of observed structures by varying this single parameter. For weak shear, a line of initially upright-to-downshear-tilted short-lived cells quickly tilts upshear, producing a wide band of weaker cells extending behind the surface outflow boundary. For moderate-to-strong shear, the circulation remains upright-to-downshear tilted for longer periods of time, with vigorous, short-lived cells confined to a relatively narrow band along the systems leading edge. At later times, however, these systems may also weaken as the circulation tilts upshear. For strong, deep shears oriented obliquely to the line, the squal...

“A Theory for Strong Long-Lived Squall Lines” Revisited

Based on the analysis of idealized two- and three-dimensional cloud model simulations, Rotunno et al. (hereafter RKW) and Weisman et al. (hereafter WKR) put forth a theory that squall-line strength and longevity was most sensitive to the strength of the component of low-level (0‐3 km AGL) ambient vertical wind shear perpendicular to squall-line orientation. An ‘‘optimal’’ state was proposed by RKW, based on the relative strength of the circulation associated with the storm-generated cold pool and the circulation associated with the ambient shear, whereby the deepest leading edge lifting and most effective convective retriggering occurred when these circulations were in near balance. Since this work, subsequent studies have brought into question the basic validity of the proposed optimal state, based on concerns as to the appropriate distribution of shear relative to the cold pool for optimal lifting, as well as the relevance of such concepts to fully complex squall lines, especially considering the potential role of deeper-layer shears in promoting system strength and longevity. In the following, the basic interpretations of the RKW theory are reconfirmed and clarified through both the analysis of a simplified two-dimensional vorticity‐streamfunction model that allows for a more direct interpretation of the role of the shear in controlling the circulation around the cold pool, and through an analysis of an extensive set of 3D squall-line simulations, run at higher resolution and covering a larger range of environmental shear conditions than presented by WKR.

The Genesis of Severe, Long-Lived Bow Echoes

Abstract A series of idealized simulations using a nonhydrostatic cloud model is used to investigate the genesis of bow echoes (a bow-shaped system of convective cells that is especially noted for producing long swaths of damaging surface winds). It is hypothesized that severe, long-lived bow echoes represent a dynamically unique form of mesoconvective organization being produced for a restricted range of environmental conditions, including a convective available potential energy (CAPE) of at least 2000 m2 s2 and vertical wind shears of at least 20 m s−1 over the lowest 2.5–5 km AGL. The key structural features include a 40–100-km-long bow-shaped segment of convective cells, with a strong rear-inflow jet extending to the leading edge of the bow at 2–3 km AGL, and cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies (referred to as “bookend” vortices) on the northern and southern flanks of the bowed segment, respectively. This structure characteristically develops three to four hours into the lifetime of a convective system a...

Predicting Supercell Motion Using a New Hodograph Technique

A physically based, shear-relative, and Galilean invariant method for predicting supercell motion using a hodograph is presented. It is founded on numerous observational and modeling studies since the 1940s, which suggest a consistent pattern to supercell motion exists. Two components are assumed to be largely responsible for supercell motion: (i) advection of the storm by a representative mean wind, and (ii) propagation away from the mean wind either toward the right or toward the left of the vertical wind shear—due to internal supercell dynamics. Using 290 supercell hodographs, this new method is shown to be statistically superior to existing methods in predicting supercell motion for both right- and left-moving storms. Other external factors such as interaction with atmospheric boundaries and orography can have a pronounced effect on supercell motion, but these are difficult to quantify prior to storm development using only a hodograph.