Moshe Givoni

From Policy Measures to Policy Packages

It is increasingly evident that harnessing the potential synergetic relationships that exist between certain policy measures can significantly increase the effectiveness and efficiency of policy interventions. However, while normative sentiments of “integrated policy” and “joined-up government” are well-established, minimal academic attention has, thus far, been paid to considerations of how such relationships might be strategically advanced in promoting effective policy interventions. Framed in relation to transport policy, this paper, thus, tentatively proposes a heuristic framework that seeks to engage with the major conceptual and procedural concerns involved in bona fide “policy packaging”. Wary of naive prescription, the framework is not intended to function as a universal blueprint for policy-making. Rather, we aim to critically examine a number of salient principles that appear to have generic policy relevance across institutional contexts and jurisdictional scales. Fundamentally, the paper argues that while policy packaging can certainly support effective and efficient policy-making—not least through enhancing interventions implementation and the ex ante mitigation of unintended effects—the packaging process requires a deep and holistic appreciation of policy subsystems, together with a structured approach, if its benefits are to be genuinely realized.

A Review of Ex-Post Evidence for Mode Substitution and Induced Demand Following the Introduction of High-Speed Rail

ABSTRACT To date, relatively little is known about the nature of the demand for high-speed rail (HSR) soon after inauguration of the services, despite close to 50-year experience of HSR operation and 17 166u2005km of HSR network around the world. This is a real lacuna given the scale of HSR construction around the world, the amount of resources committed to it, the desired accessibility, economic and environmental effects associated with HSR development and the relatively poor track record of forecasting demand for HSR services. Focusing on mode substitution and induced demand effects, this review aims to fill the gap in knowledge about the ex-post demand for HSR services in order to facilitate a learning process for the planning of the future HSR network. Although there is not much evidence on the demand for HSR services and existing evidence is largely influenced by route-specific characteristics, a methodological limitation that must be acknowledged, the evidence presented allows a better characterisation of HSR as a mode of transport. The review shows that the demand for HSR a few years after inauguration is about 10–20% induced demand and the rest is attributed to mode substitution. In terms of mode substitution, in most cases the majority of HSR passengers have used the conventional rail before. Substitution from aircraft, car and coach is generally more modest.

The Environmental Case for the High-Speed Train in the UK: Examining the London–Manchester Route

ABSTRACT This article investigates the potential for environmental benefit from the introduction of the High Speed Train (HST) on the London–Manchester route in the UK, focusing on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The lifecycle carbon emission of HST is assessed, and its sensitivity to demand changes is analyzed for several scenarios. Based on the UK Government demand assumptions, the analysis shows relatively limited potential for reduction in CO2 emissions. In 2033, overall CO2 reduction due to HST operation on the route is estimated at 100,000 tCO2 per annum, which is less than 0.1% of the total UK domestic transport emissions in 2007.

Which Policy First? A Network-Centric Approach for the Analysis and Ranking of Policy Measures

In addressing various policy problems, deciding which policy measure to start with given the range of measures available is challenging and essentially involves a process of ranking the alternatives, commonly done using multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques. In this paper a new methodology for analysis and ranking of policy measures is introduced which combines network analysis and MCDA tools. This methodology not only considers the internal properties of the measures but also their interactions with other potential measures. Consideration of such interactions provides additional insights into the process of policy formulation and can help domain experts and policy makers to better assess the policy measures and to understand the complexities involved. This new methodology is applied in this paper to the formulation of a policy to increase walking and cycling.

Competition, Integration, Substitution: Myths and Realities Concerning the Relationship between High-Speed Rail and Air Transport in Europe

Purpose – This chapter provides a critical discussion of air to rail mode substitution. Environmental impacts, intermodal competition and integration are considered, examining advantages and disadvantages as well as opportunities and constraints.Originality – Both operation and life-cycle analysis perspectives show that high-speed rail (HSR) is much ‘greener’ than air transport (per seat-km or per passenger-km) provided that the former achieves high load factors and the latter lower load factors and that freed runway capacity is not reused. HSR travel time is its main competitive advantage against air transport, and a 600-km flight is arguably the current limit for robust intermodal effects.Findings – The potential for air–HSR integration at the airport relies on various service, business and technical constraints. Even when it is successful, its environmental benefit appears to be marginal, if not negative, if airport capacity is reused for longer flights. In the current context, such integration appears more like a business opportunity for airlines, airports and train operators rather than a sustainable option. Yet the environmental benefit of integration may be larger within potential integrated transport policies.

Uncovering the Real Potential for Air–Rail Substitution: An Exploratory Analysis

While air to rail substitution is much discussed, in the literature and in the policy debate, there has still been no attempt to quantify the potential for such mode substitution in order to examine the extent to which High Speed Train (HST) might address the main problems faced by the air transport industry: the capacity shortage on the one hand and the environmental problem on the other. This chapter aims to fill this gap and to examine the worldwide potential for mode substitution based on the current air transport network and the supply of air transport services. The potential for reduction in CO2 emissions as a result of mode substitution is also examined.

A Comment on ‘The Myth of Travel Time Saving’

We recently published a paper by David Metz in issue 28(3) of Transport Reviews on the ‘Myth of Travel Time Saving’, with an invitation to readers to submit their own thoughts and reactions to the paper. This request was initiated partly as a response to the comments of the reviewers of the paper, and partly as a desire from the Editorial team to liven up the possibilities of debate within the journal. I am happy to say that we have had seven very different responses to the paper, each of which takes a slightly different perspective and picks up different elements in the original paper. David Metz responds to their comments with a final short note at the end. The issue of travel time savings in transport is certainly one that has a long history, and it has always been hotly debated as its role in transport analysis is central. We hope that these responses add to that debate.

A whole-economy model of the health co-benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the UK

Abstract Background The UK Government has set specific targets for greenhouse gas emissions to lower the risk of dangerous climate change. Previous research has shown that important health co-benefits could result from strategies targeting the domains of transport, built environment, and agriculture. This study assesses the full general equilibrium economy-wide macroeconomic effects of health co-benefits from three similar UK strategies to meet locally specific 2030 greenhouse gas emission targets. Methods Economy-wide effects of health co-benefits were modelled with a dynamic extension of the widely used International Food Policy Research Institute standard computable general equilibrium model for 2011–30. Four forms of economic agents are modelled: firms (who combine resource inputs to maximise profits), consumers (who consume and save to maximise their welfare), government, and foreign agents. The method consists of simulation of three greenhouse gas policy scenarios and a counterfactual do-nothing scenario. Basic health co-benefits (years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) were measured for a range of illnesses, on the basis of the comparative risk assessment approach. Combined with incidence numbers and prevalence trends, these basic YLD (morbidity) and YLL (mortality) co-benefits were used to calculate dynamic sequences of demographic and labour market effects on population and productive labour supply, and public budget implications for averted health-care costs and increased social security transfers (including benefit payments for working-age individuals and pension payments for old-age individuals). These economic shocks were subsequently imposed on the computable general equilibrium model and used to measure the combined macroeconomic effect of health co-benefits. The method for measuring averted health-care costs was published in The Lancet in 2012. Three scenarios were modelled: active travel (transport sector; health co-benefits of an assumed transformation of urban transport behaviour to reduce motorised transportation and increase walking [2·5-times] and cycling [8·0-times] in urban England and Wales); healthy diet (food and agriculture sector; health co-benefits of an assumed UK-wide 30% reduction in consumption of dietary saturated fat); and household energy (household energy sector; health co-benefits of an assumed UK-wide improvement in home insulation and ventilation, including reduced household energy use, improved indoor temperature, and associated changes in indoor pollutants). Findings For all scenarios, the macroeconomic effects of health co-benefits are positive. Overall, substantial savings on health-care costs represent the main contributing factor. Increased labour supplies also contribute positively, whereas increased social security transfers (due to larger working-age and old-age population segments) detract. The largest potential cumulative gross domestic product gains from health co-benefits are associated with the active travel scenario (around £19 billion), in which increased physical activity averts large-scale and long-term chronic disease burdens and health-system costs. The healthy diet scenario also leads to important potential gains (around £5 billion), whereas the full potential health co-benefits from the household energy scenario will not be realised until beyond 2030. Three economic sensitivity analyses were undertaken to test the sensitivity of results to variations in assumptions concerning: the substitutability of labour for other factors of production; the effectiveness of the interventions; and changes in the discount rate (the present value of the economic effects). Overall, the core results can be considered relatively robust to changes in these three factors. Interpretation Strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve health are likely to result in substantial and increasing positive contributions to the economy. This effect might offset some economic costs and thereby allow such strategies to be seen more favourably, especially in times of economic austerity. Funding Department of Health Policy Research Programme.