Muhammad Khalid Pervaiz

Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility in Pakistan: an analysis using GARCH-X model†

Excessive exchange rate volatility has a deleterious effect on international financial flows, external trade, investment and output. Among others, these economic costs prompt the central bank in emerging countries to contain excessive exchange rate volatility through intervention in the foreign exchange market. This article investigates the effectiveness of State Bank of Pakistans (SBP) daily foreign exchange intervention starting from 3 July 2000 to 31 December 2005 (1593 trading day observations). The method of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity, with exogenous variables (GARCH-X), used in this article, shows that SBPs intervention operation is very effective as it not only affects the exchange rate levels but also reduces the exchange rate volatility. It is also found that the short-term interest rate and the size of the foreign exchange reserves held by SBP also affect the exchange rate level and its volatility. Increase in short-term interest rate and higher foreign exchange reserves are associated with appreciation of exchange rate levels and vice versa. In addition, higher foreign exchange reserves also reduce the exchange rate volatility. In sharp contrast to the no days-of-the-week effects on exchange rate level, the results show that there is some evidence of significant days-of-the-week effects of intervention on exchange rate volatility. † The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the State Bank of Pakistan.

An Improved Group Sampling Plan Based on Time-Truncated Life Tests

In this paper, a new group sampling plan for the lot acceptance is proposed for the time truncated life test, which can be utilized when multi-item testers are implemented. The design parameters are found using the two-point approach such that the producers and consumers risks are satisfied simultaneously at the acceptable reliability level and the lot tolerance reliability level, respectively. The case of Weibull distribution is described to illustrate the procedure that can be used when the quality level is expressed by a multiple of the specified life. The advantage of the proposed plan is demonstrated by comparing with the existing plan in terms of the sample size required. The tables are constructed and some examples are given to illustrate the procedure developed here.

Biodegradation of H acid by Bacillus subtilis and RP-HPLC method development for percent degradation estimation

The industrial synthesis of pigments and dyes generates hazardous chemicals. These chemicals are released into water, soil and environment and regarded as a major source of environmental pollution. H acid is also an important dye intermediate. In this study, the focus was on the bacterial degradation of H acid (1-amino-8-naphthol-3,6-disulfonic acid) of different concentrations and its degradation estimation method. The biodegradation was identified by the help of IR, UV-Visible spectrophotometer and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). A method was developed for the estimation of percent biodegradation of H acid with the help of HPLC. The developed method was applicable on standard as well as biodegraded products and on other compounds with the sulfonic acid group. It was found that H acid of concentration 300 ppm and below can be completely degraded with Bacillus subtilis. However, over 300 ppm, the bacterial degradation did not work efficiently.

Synthesis, spectral and antimicrobial studies of amino acid derivative Schiff base metal (Co, Mn, Cu, and Cd) complexes

Amino acid derivative Schiff base was synthesized by reaction of leucine with salicyldehyde in basic medium. The Schiff base was used as a ligand which was reacted with Co, Mn, Cu and Cd metals in order to form the stable complexes. The synthesized ligand and metals complexes were characterized by using different spectroscopic tools i.e. FT-IR, Mass spectrometry and NMR. The percentages of different elements present in ligand molecule and complexes was confirmed by Elemental analyzer. All compounds including ligand and complexes were also engaged with different bacterial (Escheria coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Bacillus subbtilis) and fungal strains (Alternaria alternate, Aspergillus flavus and Aspergillus niger) in order to check the inhibitory action of titled compounds. The results showed that the metal complexes have greater antimicrobial activities than ligand.

Changes in thyroid function status of suicidal patients

Background This study was carried out at Punjab Institute of Mental Health and Centre for Nuclear Medicine Mayo Hospital, Lahore. It is aimed at the possible association of thyroid malfunctioning with suicide attempts of patients. Objective Determination of thyroid function status of suicidal psychiatric patients and their comparison with psychiatric patients without suicide attempt or ideation. Methods Total 54 patients with either past history of suicide attempt or current suicidal ideation were selected for analysis of their thyroid function status (age 15-55 years). Age matched 50 non-suicide psychiatric patients were included for comparison. Results Two patients with suicide attempt had overt thyroid dysfunction. Remaining patients had serum FT4, FT3 and TSH level within normal range. Suicide attempter patients had lower FT4 but increased FT3 and TSH levels compared to suicidal ideation patients. Serum FT4 and TSH levels in suicidal patients were not different from psychiatric patients. Serum FT3 in suicidal patients was lower than psychiatric patients (3.7 ± 0.8 vs. 4.3 ± 0.5; p < 0.05). Female suicidal patients had lower FT3 levels compared to male patients (3.4 ± 0.6 vs. 3.9 ± 0.8 pmol/L; p < 0.05). Discussion Local suicidal patients have higher incidence of overt thyroid disorder and lower FT3 levels compared to non-suicidal psychiatric patients.

CO2 Capture, Storage, and Enhanced Oil Recovery Applications

Abstract CO 2 -EOR gained the attention of industry as one of the most practical choices of oil recovery approaches. In addition to the oil production boost, enhanced oil recovery by means of CO 2 offers a channel to store the enormous volumes of CO 2 permanently under the subsurface in depleted crude oil reservoirs. Here we discussed the potential and operational mechanisms of CO 2 -EOR applications for trapped oil recovery as well as CO 2 sequestration.

Biofuels in emerging economies: Opportunities and challenges

Project Goals: The main objective of this research is to apply a biodesign strategy for improving oil content in a promising alternative source of jet-fuel, pennycress. To advance towards this goal, we are: 1) Investigating pennycress natural variation to identify candidate genes and biomarkers associated with oil accumulation and fatty acid composition; 2) Identifying targets to improve oil content and composition, and 3) Establishing metabolic engineering targets and develop community resources.

Surface morphology and mechanical strength of AISI M2 tool steel treated in abnormal glow region of plasma

Plasma ion nitriding is a flexible and multi-functional casehardening technique used in the given study for surface modifications of AISI M2 tool steel (0.9% C, 4.2% Cr, 5.0% Mo, 6.0% W, and 2.0% V). By varying the plasma treatment time from 1 to 4 hour and the filling gas pressure from 1 to 4 mbar, the surface nitriding was carried out in the abnormal glow region of a pulsed DC discharge. Pre-plasma treatment heating of the samples was performed by a heating unit; the substrate temperature was raised to 500°C, with the ramping rate of 15°C. The resultant microscopic changes in the surface properties of the plasma treated tool steel were studied with different surface characterization techniques such as X-ray Diffraction, Scanning Electron Microscopy and Vickers’s micro-hardness testing. These investigations confirmed the formation of a compound layer on the plasma exposed surface. It was observed that the layer thickness initially increases and then decreases with nitriding time. Similar results were obtained for increasing filling gas pressure. The X-ray Diffraction results showed a down-shift in the original diffraction peaks, which confirms the nitrogen diffusion into the exposed surface and a compound layer formation. A significant improvement in the surface hardness was also vivid, which might be due to the nitrogen diffusion and the formation of a compound layer on the target surface.

Risk Factors of Urinary Bladder Cancer in Islamabad, Federal Area of Pakistan

It is retrospective and hospital based case control study which was conducted in the federal city of Islamabad in Pakistan in order to assess the risk factors of the urinary bladder cancer. This study was based on the 100 controls and 50 cases comprising 150 subjects which were selected for interview from the two hospitals and required information like gender, age, smoking habits, family history of cancer, etc., was achieved. Both the descriptive and analytical approaches were used to find out the dominating risk factors of the disease. Odds ratios and 95 % Confidence Intervals were obtained for analytical purpose by using the binary logistic regression model. Three factors including cigarette smoking, source of drinking water and fried items were found to be significant having odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals of (17.158, 6.24447.147), (0.192, 0.061- 0.603) and (12.206, 3.291- 45.275), respectively. The study revealed that cigarette smoking, consumption of tap water and high use of fried items increases the risk of developing bladder cancer. On the other hand, the use of government provided for drinking purpose is a protection against the urinary bladder cancer as compared to tap water.

Determination of probability of selection for two measures of sizes using unequal probability sampling in agricultural sample surveys.

In this paper an effort has been made to design a methodology for the determination of probability of selection for the cases where more than one measure of sizes are involved, especially in the case of agricultural sample surveys. So far no effort has been made for the cases of this sort in the literature of unequal probability sampling / probability proportional to size sampling. In this paper, a method has been developed to merge two measures of sizes in to one, which has combined proportional affect of both measures of sizes. The method is also valid for two measures of sizes having different units of measurements. It is also an unprecedented effort. A comparative study, using Horvitz - Thompson estimator and taking examples from agricultural surveys have been carried out to assess the performance of the new methodology.