Munsur Rahman

Implications of agricultural land use change to ecosystem services in the Ganges delta

Ecosystems provide the basis for human civilization and natural capital for green economy and sustainable development. Ecosystem services may range from crops, fish, freshwater to those that are harder to see such as erosion regulation, carbon sequestration, and pest control. Land use changes have been identified as the main sources of coastal and marine pollution in Bangladesh. This paper explores the temporal variation of agricultural land use change and its implications with ecosystem services in the Ganges delta. With time agricultural lands have been decreased and wetlands have been increased at a very high rate mainly due to the growing popularity of saltwater shrimp farming. In a span of 28 years, the agricultural lands have been reduced by approximately 50%, while the wetlands have been increased by over 500%. A large portion (nearly 40%) of the study area is covered by the Sundarbans which remained almost constant which can be attributed to the strict regulatory intervention to preserve the Sundarbans. The settlement & others land use type has also been increased to nearly 5%. There is a gradual uptrend of shrimp and fish production in the study area. The findings suggest that there are significant linkages between agricultural land use change and ecosystem services in the Ganges delta in Bangladesh. The continuous decline of agricultural land (due to salinization) and an increase of wetland have been attributed to the conversion of agricultural land into shrimp farming in the study area. Such land use change requires significant capital, therefore, only investors and wealthier land owners can get the higher profit from the land conversion while the poor people is left with the environmental consequences that affect their long-term lives and livelihood. An environmental management plan is proposed for sustainable land use in the Ganges delta in Bangladesh.

A first look at the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the future delivery of fluvial sediment to the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta

We employ a climate-driven hydrological water balance and sediment transport model (HydroTrend) to simulate future climate-driven sediment loads flowing into the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) mega-delta. The model was parameterised using high-quality topographic data and forced with daily temperature and precipitation data obtained from downscaled Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for the period 1971-2100. Three perturbed RCM model runs were selected to quantify the potential range of future climate conditions associated with the SRES A1B scenario. Fluvial sediment delivery rates to the GBM delta associated with these climate data sets are projected to increase under the influence of anthropogenic climate change, albeit with the magnitude of the increase varying across the two catchments. Of the two study basins, the Brahmaputras fluvial sediment load is predicted to be more sensitive to future climate change. Specifically, by the middle part of the 21(st) century, our model results suggest that sediment loads increase (relative to the 1981-2000 baseline period) over a range of between 16% and 18% (depending on climate model run) for the Ganges, but by between 25% and 28% for the Brahmaputra. The simulated increase in sediment flux emanating from the two catchments further increases towards the end of the 21(st) century, reaching between 34% and 37% for the Ganges and between 52% and 60% for the Brahmaputra by the 2090s. The variability in these changes across the three climate change simulations is small compared to the changes, suggesting they represent a significant increase. The new data obtained in this study offer the first estimate of whether and how anthropogenic climate change may affect the delivery of fluvial sediment to the GBM delta, informing assessments of the future sustainability and resilience of one of the worlds most vulnerable mega-deltas. Specifically, such significant increases in future sediment loads could increase the resilience of the delta to sea-level rise by giving greater potential for vertical accretion. However, these increased sediment fluxes may not be realised due to uncertainties in the monsoon related response to climate change or other human-induced changes in the catchment: this is a subject for further research.

Capacity Analysis for Fixed-Time Signalized Intersection for Non-Lane Based Traffic Condition

Capacity analysis of signalized intersections basically consists of estimating saturation flow and delay. Pre-timed signals are most commonly used in developing countries. This research deals with development of saturation flow and delay models for pre-timed signalized intersections with reference to non-lane based traffic condition prevailing in Bangladesh. In order to account non-uniformity in the static and dynamic characteristics of the vehicles passenger car unit (PCU) values for each vehicle is found out using synchronous regression technique and a range of site-specific PCU values were obtained. From this study, it has been observed that unified PCU concept does not hold good for non-lane based traffic condition and it has been recommended that the analysis should be site specific for non-lane based traffic condition. The saturation flow for each study approach was calculated using the average PCU values and multiple linear regression techniques were then used to derive predictive saturation flow models. Field delay for each approach is calculated based on HCM 2000 guidelines. It has been observed that HCM 2000 delay model consistently over estimate delay at degree of saturation more than 1.0. It has been suggested from the analysis that theoretical incremental delay (due to random arrival and over saturated queues) in HCM 2000 delay model be reduced by 70 % to better reflect field conditions in capacity analysis for non lane based traffic condition.

Peptic ulcer perforation: Management of high-risk cases by percutaneous abdominal drainage

Sixty-six patients were selected as high-risk cases of duodenal ulcer perforation. After resuscitation with intravenous fluids and nasogastric suction, a wide-bore percutaneous intra-abdominal drain was put in under local anaesthesia. There were three (4.5%) deaths; 58 (87.8%) patients improved satisfactorily. High-risk peptic ulcer perforation patients can be managed by putting in an intra-abdominal drain supported by conservative treatment.

Recent sediment flux to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta system

The physical sustainability of deltaic environments is very much dependent on the volume of water and sediment coming from upstream and the way these fluxes recirculate within the delta system. Based on several past studies, the combined mean annual sediment load of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) systems has previously been estimated to vary from 1.0 to 2.4 BT/year which can be separated into components flowing from the Ganges (260 to 680 MT/year) and Brahmaputra (390 to 1160 MT/year). Due to very limited data and small contribution of the Meghna system (6-12 MT/year) to the total sediment flux of the GBM system, the data of the Meghna is not considered in the analysis assuming the sediment flux from GB system as the sediment flux of GBM. However, in this paper our analysis of sediment concentration data (1960-2008) collected by Bangladesh Water Development Board shows that the sediment flux is much lower: 150 to 590 MT/year for the Ganges versus 135 to 615 MT/year for the Brahmaputra, with an average total flux around 500 MT/year. Moreover, the new analysis provides a clear indication that the combined sediment flux delivered through these two major river systems is following a declining trend. In most of the planning documents in Bangladesh, the total sediment flux is assumed as a constant value of around 1 billion tons, while the present study indicates that the true value may be around 50% lower than this (with an average decreasing trend of around 10 MT/year).

Freshwater Fish Diversity at Greater Noakhali, Bangladesh

ABStRAct This study assessed the spatial-temporal diversity of fish at greater Noakhali, an aquatic ecosystem that supports the most diverse fish communities in Bangladesh. Fish samples were collected from eight locations from July 2010 to June 2011 and diversity analyzed using PAST software. Findings showed that greater Noakhali is the habitat for 128 fish species. For the whole sampling area, the Shannon diversity index, evenness, Margalef richness and dominance index values were 4.501, 0.889, 15.763 and 0.012, respectively. Oreochromis mossambicus, Mastacembelus armatus and Tenualosa toli were the major contributory species in temporal terms and Tenualosa ilisha, Somileptes gongota and Mystus vittatus in spatial terms.

Biology and fisheries of Hilsa shad in Bay of Bengal

Hilsa (Tenualosa ilisha) or river shad is an anadromous fish species widely distributed in the North Indian Ocean, mainly in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Hilsa is the national fish of Bangladesh and it contributes 10% of the total fish production of the country, with a market value of

Reaction of triphenylbismuthonium 2-oxoalkylides with benzils. A novel one-pot conversion of symmetrical 1,2-diketones into O-aroyl enolates of unsymmetrical 1,3-diketones

1.74 billion. Hilsa also holds a very important place in the economics of West Bengal of India with 12.5% of the catch and also tops the marine capture in Myanmar. During the last two decades Hilsa production from inland waters has been stable, whereas marine yields in the BoB increased substantially. In order to sustainably manage the trans-boundary stock of Hilsa, the taxonomy, distribution, habitat, migration patterns, population dynamics, fisheries and socio-economics aspects of the fishery have been reviewed here. To achieve a successful trans-boundary management for the Hilsa stock, complete ban on undersize fishing, well-targeted temporal and spatial bans, creation of protected areas in strategic points, incentive for Hilsa fishers and ecological restoration of Hilsa habitats and more work on technological development of Hilsa aquaculture are recommended.

Integrated assessment of social and environmental sustainability dynamics in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, Bangladesh

Triphenylbismuthonium 2-oxoalkylide 1, generated in situ from the corresponding onium salt 2 and base in THF at low temperatures, reacts with benzils 3 to give O-aroyl enolates of unsymmetrical 1,3-diketones 4 in moderate to good yields.