Muthukumara Mani

Roads, population pressures, and deforestation in Thailand, 1976-89

Tropical deforestation is considered one of the major environmental disasters of the 20th century, although there have been few careful studies of its causes. This paper examines the causes of deforestation in Thailand between 1976 and 1989, a period when the country lost 28% of its forest cover. This paper takes the perspective that, in the long run, the determinants of deforestation are the determinants of land use change. While logging and fuelwood gathering may remove forest cover, regrowth will occur, at least in moist tropical forests. For an area to remain deforested, it must be profitable to convert the land to another use, and this use is usually agricultural. In Thailand, for example, agricultural land increased between 1961 and 1988; during the same period, forest land decreased. This paper focuses on what, in equilibrium, determines the amount of land cleared for agriculture. The authors emphasize the quantitative impact of two forces--roads and population pressures--that increase the profitability of converting forest land to agriculture. As aerial maps show, development follows road networks. The magnitude of the impact of roads on commercial and subsistence agriculture depends on soil quality along the road. In this case the Thailand government undertook a road-building program in the Northeast section in the 1970s to encourage settlement of that region as a bulwark against Communist encroachment from Laos. Road building very likely spurred deforestation in the Northeast during the 1970s and 1980s, although the magnitude of its impact is not known. Thailand also experienced rapid population growth during this same period, which may have contributed to deforestation in two ways: the growing population demanding more food, increased the demand for agricultural land; and more importantly, in rural areas where other economic opportunities are limited and squatters are permitted on forest lands, a growing population increased the demand for land for subsistence agriculture. The authors conclude that population pressures play less of a role in deforestation than was found in earlier studies on Thailand. Affecting the amount of deforestation are other factors, such as the profitability of converting the land to another use, natural protection for forests like poor soil and steep slopes, and agricultural price variations.

Trade Integration and Political Turbulence Environmental Policy Consequences

Abstract This paper contributes to the unresolved issue regarding the effect of economic integration on environmental policymaking. In particular, we discuss the joint impact of trade openness and political stability on environmental policymaking. Our theory predicts that the effect of trade integration on environmental policy is conditional on the degree of political stability. Trade integration affects the stringency of environmental policies due to changes in industry bribery behavior, and the effect is conditional on the degree of political stability. The empirical findings support the theory and are robust to alternative specifications. The stringency enhancing effect on environmental policy of trade integration is greater in politically stable countries.

Trade Liberalization and the Environment in Vietnam

Vietnams integration with the international economy has increased significantly over the past decade, aided by substantial liberalization of trade, and appears set to increase further as trade-expanding measures take full effect. This dramatic shift in Vietnams trading patterns has important implications for the environment and use of natural resources. This paper offers a systematic analysis of the trading and investment patterns to give a broader understanding of the environmental implications of greater openness of the economy during the past decade. The results suggest increasing manufacturing and export activity in water and toxic pollution-intensive sectors compared with the less pollution-intensive sectors. The story is, on the surface, consistent with the changing composition of Vietnamese production and exports away from traditional sectors and toward pollution-intensive manufacturing (especially leather and textiles). The paper also highlights the need to consider strengthening environmental policies while further trade liberalization is being contemplated through Vietnams joining of the World Trade Organization.

An analysis of physical and monetary losses of environmental health and natural resources in India

This study provides estimates of social and financial costs of environmental damage in India from three pollution damage categories: (i) urban air pollution; (ii) inadequate water supply, poor sanitation, and hygiene; and (iii) indoor air pollution. It also provides estimates based on three natural resource damage categories: (i) agricultural damage from soil salinity, water logging, and soil erosion; (ii) rangeland degradation; and (iii) deforestation. The estimates are based on a combination of Indian data from secondary sources and on the transfer of unit costs of pollution from a range of national and international studies. The study estimates the total cost of environmental degradation in India at about 3.75 trillion rupees (US

Environmental Federalism: A Panacea or Pandora's Box for Developing Countries?

80 billion) annually, equivalent to 5.7 percent of gross domestic product in 2009, which is the reference year for most of the damage estimates. Of this total, outdoor air pollution accounts for 1.1 trillion rupees, followed by the cost of indoor air pollution at 0.9 trillion rupees, croplands degradation cost at 0.7 trillion rupees, inadequate water supply and sanitation cost at around at 0.5 trillion rupees, pasture degradation cost at 0.4 trillion rupees, and forest degradation cost at 0.1 trillion rupees.

The Rule of Law and the Pattern of Environment Protection

This paper provides new empirical evidence to the debate on the optimal locus of power over environmental policymaking in developing countries. The authors develop a simple lobby group model with mobile capital. The model predicts that a decentralized institutional structure leads to weaker environmental policy due to more intensive lobbying by capital owners and workers. They test this prediction using novel cross-sectional developing country data. The results are consistent with the prediction of the model, in particular for air pollution policies. The authors also find that the effect of decentralization declines with a greater degree of trade openness. They believe this is the first developing country evidence on the environmental policy effects of federalism.

India's Economic Growth and Environmental Sustainability: What are the Tradeoffs?

We develop and test a theory of the rule of law and environmental policy formation. In our model an increase in the degree of rule of law has two opposing partial effects on environmental policy: first, a greater share of policy decisions are implemented according to law; second, industry bribery efforts increase because more is at stake. Moreover, we find that an increase in corruptibility of policymakers lowers the stringency of environmental policy. The empirical findings suggest that a greater degree of rule of law raises environmental policy stringency, but the effect is lower where corruptibility is high.

DR-CAFTA and the Environment

One of the key environmental problems facing India is that of particle pollution from the combustion of fossil fuels. This has serious health consequences and with the rapid growth in the economy these impacts are increasing. At the same time, economic growth is an imperative and policy makers are concerned about the possibility that pollution reduction measures could reduce growth significantly. This paper addresses the tradeoffs involved in controlling local pollutants such as particles. Using an established Computable General Equilibrium model, it evaluates the impacts of a tax on coal or on emissions of particles such that these instruments result in emission levels that are respectively 10 percent and 30 percent lower than they otherwise would be in 2030. The main findings are as follows: (i) A 10 percent particulate emission reduction results in a lower gross domestic product but the size of the reduction is modest; (ii) losses in gross domestic proudct from the tax are partly offset by the health gains from lower particle emissions; (iii) the taxes reduce emissions of carbon dioxide by about 590 million tons in 2030 in the case of the 10 percent reduction and 830 million tons in the case of the 30 percent reduction; and (iv) taken together, the carbon dioxide reduction and the health benefits are greater than the loss of gross domestic product in both cases.

ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEWS AND CASE STUDIES: Trade and the Environment Debate: Recent Developments and Implications for China

The Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement with the United States aims to create a free trade zone for economic development. The Agreement is expected to intensify commerce and investment among the participating countries. This paper analyzes the changes in the production and trading patterns in 2-digit manufacturing sectors with the goal of understanding the short-term environmental implications of the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement. More specifically, the paper addresses the questions: Did pollution increase in the period after the Agreement negotiations? Did trade and production shift toward pollution intensive factors? The results suggest an increase in pollution emissions in the post-negotiations period. The increase in emissions is mainly attributable to scale effects. Composition effects are small and in some cases (including Nicaragua and Honduras) favoring cleaner industries and partially compensating the pollution gains from output and export growth.

Economic and Environmental Benefits of Eliminating Log Export Bans-The Case of Costa Rica

This report focuses on the current state of debate surrounding environmental goods negotiations under the World Trade Organization in the context of Chinese exports and imports. The report also examines some recent proposals (in United States and European Union) that called for increased trade barriers against imports from nations that have less stringent carbon policies and then draws implications for China.