N. Edward Coulson

Spatial Mismatch in Search Equilibrium

We construct a search equilibrium model for a city with central and suburban labor markets that is consistent with the set of empirical regularities commonly associated with the spatial mismatch hypothesis: a higher rate of unemployment for central city residents than suburban residents, a higher job vacancy rate for suburban firms, and reverse commuting and higher suburban wages. The effectiveness and welfare implications of public policy programs that might be used to remedy the underlying mismatch are examined.

Historic Preservation and Residential Property Values: An Analysis of Texas Cities

Designation of historic districts is increasingly used as a tool to revive or halt the deterioration of central-city neighbourhoods. While historic designation is generally thought to have a positive impact on property values, evidence on this issue is mixed. One limitation of previous research is that it typically focuses on historic neighbourhoods in one city and thus bases its conclusions on a very limited sample. This study expands upon previous work by examining the effects of designation on property values across a larger set of cities. The study employs hedonic regression models to estimate housing prices in historic districts and comparable neighbourhoods in nine Texas cities. Results suggest that, in most cases, historic designation is associated with higher property values.

The Internal and External Impact of Historical Designation on Property Values

Designation of historic properties and historic districts is increasingly used as a means to revive central-city neighborhoods and to promote urban economic development. While preservation activities are thought to generate positive externalities for surrounding neighborhoods, these external effects have been difficult to quantify. Using a database of tax-appraisal records for residential properties in Abilene, Texas, this study demonstrates that there are significant, positive externalities associated with historic designation. We perform simple cost-benefit calculations and find that the internal and external benefits more than outweigh the (nonzero) costs associated with historical designation. Moreover, from the city of Abilenes perspective the property-tax incentives provided to historic reinvestment are outweighed by the added property-tax revenue created by the increased value.

Tenure Choice and Labour Market Outcomes

In a series of papers Andrew Oswald has suggested that since home owners are relatively less mobile across geographic locations than renters, regional home ownership rates are positively correlated with regional unemployment rates. This paper examines this hypothesis at the individual level. Search theory suggests that when a subset of the population is less mobile than others, this less mobile group (that is, owners) will have lower probability of employment, longer spells of unemployment and lower wages than more mobile renters. These hypotheses on inferior labour market outcomes for owners were tested using US Current Population Survey data as well as data from the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics. The empirical model suggests that these hypotheses are not supported by any of the tests. Home owners, conditionally or unconditionally, have better labour market outcomes than renters.

A Hedonic Approach To Residential Succession

A model of neighborhood turnover drawn from Bond and Coulson (1989) is proposed. The type of turnover process that is obtained is shown to depend mainly on the hedonic bid functions for housing and neighborhood quality. A demand system of four hedonic attributes is estimated. The main results are that the traditional model of filtering by age of unit does not occur and that filtering by housing size does. Tipping due to changes in median neighborhood income is also quite possible. Tipping through changes in racial composition appears less likely. Copyright 1990 by MIT Press.

Residential Investment, Non‐residential Investment and GDP

We examine the causality and influence of residential and non-residential investment with respect to GDP and its components in a multivariate, vector autoregressive context, with some care devoted to the appropriate orthogonalization of the shocks which drive the various components of GDP. We find that residential investment shocks are more important in the determination of GDP than non-residential investment shocks. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

Aggregate economic activity and the variance of inflation: Another look

Abstract The time series of forecast errors and forecast variances estimated from Engles ARCH model are used to estimate the relationship between the volatility of inflation and key macroeconomic variables. This is done using both a Lucas supply framework and a Granger-causality framework; the results of the latter, in particular, are strikingly different from previous work.

On the determination of regional base and regional base multipliers

Abstract Given that employment in a regions economic base and total employment are in long-run equilibrium, the two series ought to be cointegrated. This suggest a method for discovering the regions basic sectors which is explored using the Philadelphia MSA as an example.

Sectoral sources of metropolitan growth

Abstract The paper proposes a method for identifying sectoral sources of metropolitan employment growth The key feature of the VAR is the set of (over)identifying restrictions which do not require a causal ordering to be developed among industries to create orthogonal sectoral shocks. The simulations for four cities indicate that local sectoral shocks are more important than national counterparts, and that among local shocks, the overall evidence indicates that manufacturing, service and public sector employment shocks account for a substantial portion of employment growth variation, a conclusion that seems roughly consistent with export-oriented models of metropolitan growth.

The Dynamics of Intraurban Quantile House Price Indexes

Estimating price indexes for different quantiles shows how prices vary for homes that are in different stages of the filtering process. The paper describes a filtering model and its implication for the dynamic interaction of housing prices at these various stages. A time-series analysis of quantile price indexes for three municipalities near Chicago supports the predictions of the filtering model.