N. Van Geloven

Progression and prognostic factors of motor impairment, disability and quality of life in newly diagnosed Parkinson's disease.

To determine progression and prognostic factors of progression rate of motor impairment, disability, and quality of life (QoL) in patients with newly diagnosed Parkinsons disease.

Are patient characteristics associated with the accuracy of hysterosalpingography in diagnosing tubal pathology? An individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Conventional meta-analysis has estimated the sensitivity and specificity of hysterosalpingography (HSG) to be 65% and 83%. The impact of patient characteristics on the accuracy of HSG is unknown. The aim of this study was to assess by individual patient data meta-analysis whether the accuracy of HSG is associated with different patient characteristics. METHODS We approached authors of primary studies reporting on the accuracy of HSG using findings at laparoscopy as the reference. We assessed whether patient characteristics such as female age, duration of subfertility and a clinical history without risk factors for tubal pathology were associated with the accuracy of HSG, using a random intercept logistic regression model. RESULTS We acquired data of seven primary studies containing data of 4521 women. Pooled sensitivity and specificity of HSG were 53% and 87% for any tubal pathology and 46% and 95% for bilateral tubal pathology. In women without risk factors, the sensitivity of HSG was 38% for any tubal pathology, compared with 61% in women with risk factors (P = 0.005). For bilateral tubal pathology, these rates were 13% versus 47% (P = 0.01). For bilateral tubal pathology, the sensitivity of HSG decreased with age [factor 0.93 per year (P = 0.05)]. The specificity of HSG was very stable across all subgroups. CONCLUSIONS The accuracy of HSG in detecting tubal pathology was similar in all subgroups, except for women without risk factors in whom sensitivity was lower, possibly due to false-positive results at laparoscopy. HSG is a useful tubal patency screening test for all infertile couples.

Prognostic factors of motor impairment, disability, and quality of life in newly diagnosed PD

Objective: In Parkinson disease (PD), the rate of clinical progression is highly variable. To date, there are conflicting findings concerning the prognostic factors influencing the rate of progression. Methodologic issues such as the use of selected patients from therapeutic trials, and short durations of follow-up probably underlie this problem. We therefore designed a prospective follow-up study of a cohort of newly diagnosed patients with PD. Methods: A cohort of 129 patients with newly diagnosed PD was assessed at baseline, and 1, 2, 3, and 5 years later. The rate of progression and its prognostic factors on the level of motor impairments, disability, and quality of life were investigated using linear mixed-model analysis. Results: Annual increase of motor impairments measured with the Unified Parkinsons Disease Rating Scale–Motor Examination was estimated to be 2.46 points (95% confidence interval: 2.05–2.88). The main determinants of faster increase of motor impairments were male sex and cognitive dysfunction at the time of diagnosis. The main determinants of faster increase of disability were higher age at onset, cognitive dysfunction, and the presence of levodopa-nonresponsive motor symptoms at the time of diagnosis. No clinically relevant determinants were found for the decrease in quality of life. Conclusion: This study shows the importance of nondopaminergic symptoms at the time of diagnosis, because these symptoms are the main determinants of increased disability in the first 5 years of the disease.

Chlamydia antibody testing and diagnosing tubal pathology in subfertile women: an individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND The Chlamydia IgG antibody test (CAT) shows considerable variations in reported estimates of test accuracy, partly because of the use of different assays and cut-off values. The aim of this study was to reassess the accuracy of CAT in diagnosing tubal pathology by individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis for three different CAT assays. METHODS We approached authors of primary studies that used micro-immunofluorescence tests (MIF), immunofluorescence tests (IF) or enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay tests (ELISA). Using the obtained IPD, we performed pooled receiver operator characteristics analysis and logistic regression analysis with a random effects model to compare the three assays. Tubal pathology was defined as either any tubal obstruction or bilateral tubal obstruction. RESULTS We acquired data of 14 primary studies containing data of 6191 women, of which data of 3453 women were available for analysis. The areas under the curve for ELISA, IF and MIF were 0.64, 0.65 and 0.75, respectively (P-value < 0.001) for any tubal pathology and 0.66, 0.66 and 0.77, respectively (P-value = 0.01) for bilateral tubal pathology. CONCLUSIONS In Chlamydia antibody testing, MIF is superior in the assessment of tubal pathology. In the initial screen for tubal pathology MIF should therefore be the test of first choice.

Infarct size and left ventricular function in the PRoximal Embolic Protection in Acute myocardial infarction and Resolution of ST-segment Elevation (PREPARE) trial: ancillary cardiovascular magnetic resonance study

Objectives The aim of the study was to evaluate whether primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with combined proximal embolic protection and thrombus aspiration results in smaller final infarct size and improved left ventricular function assessed by cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients compared with primary PCI alone. Background Primary PCI with the Proxis system improves immediate microvascular flow post-procedure as measured by ST-segment resolution, which could result in better outcomes. Methods The ancillary CMR study included 206 STEMI patients who were enrolled in the PRoximal Embolic Protection in Acute myocardial infarction and Resolution of ST-Elevation (PREPARE) trial. CMR imaging was assessed between 4 and 6 months after the index procedure. Results There were no significant differences in final infarct size (6.1 g/m2 vs 6.3 g/m2, p = 0.78) and left ventricular ejection fraction (50% vs 50%, p = 0.46) between both groups. Also, systolic wall thickening in the infarct area (44% vs 45%, p = 0.93) or the extent of transmural segments (8.3% of segments vs 8.3% of segments, p = 0.60) showed no significant differences. The incidence of major adverse cardiac and cerebral events at 6 months was similar in the Proxis and control group (8% vs 10%, respectively, p = 0.43). Conclusions Primary PCI with combined proximal embolic protection and thrombus aspiration in STEMI patients did not result in significant differences in final infarct size or left ventricular function at follow-up CMR. In addition, there was no difference in the incidence of major adverse cardiac and cerebral events at 6 months. Trial registration number ISRCTN71104460.

Can we distinguish between infertility and subfertility when predicting natural conception in couples with an unfulfilled child wish

STUDY QUESTION Can mixture survival models help distinguish infertility from subfertility in couples with an unexplained unfulfilled child wish? SUMMARY ANSWER Mixture models estimated that 47% of the couples were infertile; female age and previous pregnancy were significantly related to infertility, whereas duration of child wish was associated with a longer time to pregnancy for subfertile couples. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY To differentiate between couples who require assisted conception and couples who still have good chances of natural, i.e. unassisted, conception, several prediction models of natural conception have been developed. Prognostic factors in these models are usually assessed by Cox proportional hazard models that cannot differentiate between couples with an unfulfilled child wish who are subfertile, i.e. have reduced ability to conceive naturally, and couples who are really infertile, i.e. are completely unable to conceive naturally. We evaluated whether a mixture survival model can make such a distinction. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION Consecutive couples presenting at the fertility clinics of 38 centres in the Netherlands between January 2002 and February 2004 joined a prospective cohort study. Of the 7860 couples in the cohort, 3917 couples met our inclusion criteria. The median follow-up was 219 days, with a maximum of 5 years. PARTICIPANTS, SETTING, METHODS Couples had to present with an unexplained cause of an unfulfilled child wish. A mixture model was used to estimate the proportion of couples who were infertile and the time to pregnancy for the subfertile couples. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE During the follow-up, 794 couples conceived naturally. The mixture model estimated that 47% [95% confidence interval (CI): 33-56%] of couples were infertile, despite the absence of objective factors indicating a cause for infertility. Of the evaluated prognostic factors, female age, duration of child wish, previous pregnancy, semen quality, BMI and cycle length, female age [odds ratio (OR): 1.11, 95% CI: 1.03-1.19] and previous pregnancy (0.22, 95% CI: 0.07-0.67) were significant predictors of infertility. Among subfertile couples, a longer duration of a child wish (FFR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.61-0.85) was a significant prognostic factor for time to pregnancy. In the Cox models, all variables except BMI were significant predictors of time to pregnancy. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION The mixture model had limited power due to a low number of couples at the end of the follow-up period. Mixture model analyses on external, long-term follow-up data are necessary to validate our results. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS Mixture models could be a useful tool in selecting couples who require assisted reproductive technology because the effects of prognostic factors can be subdivided into effects on the fraction of infertile couples and effects on the time to pregnancy for subfertile couples, which is not possible in conventional models. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This study was supported by grant 945/12/002 from ZonMw, the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development, The Hague, the Netherlands.

Integration of patient characteristics and the results of Chlamydia antibody testing and hysterosalpingography in the diagnosis of tubal pathology: an individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Tubal patency tests are routinely performed in the diagnostic work-up of subfertile patients, but it is unknown whether these diagnostic tests add value beyond the information obtained by medical history taking and findings at physical examination. We used individual patient data meta-analysis to assess this question. METHODS We approached authors of primary studies for data sets containing information on patient characteristics and results from tubal patency tests, such as Chlamydia antibody test (CAT), hysterosalpingography (HSG) and laparoscopy. We used logistic regression to create models that predict tubal pathology from medical history and physical examination alone, as well as models in which the results of tubal patency tests are integrated in the patient characteristics model. Laparoscopy was considered to be the reference test. RESULTS We obtained data from four studies reporting on 4883 women. The duration of subfertility, number of previous pregnancies and a history of previous pelvic inflammatory disease (PID), pelvic surgery or Chlamydia infection qualified for the patient characteristics model. This model showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61-0.65]. For any tubal pathology, the addition of HSG significantly improved the predictive performance to an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI 0.73-0.76) (P < 0.001). For bilateral tubal pathology, the addition of both CAT and HSG increased the predictive performance to an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI 0.74-0.79). CONCLUSIONS In the work-up for subfertile couples, the combination of patient characteristics with CAT and HSG results gives the best diagnostic performance for the diagnosis of bilateral tubal pathology.

Treatment should be considered a competing risk when predicting natural conception in subfertile women

BACKGROUND Prediction of natural conception in subfertile couples can help to differentiate between couples who should have immediate treatment and couples who can aim for natural conception for some time. Natural conception rates are often estimated using standard techniques such as Kaplan-Meier or Cox proportional hazard models. These estimates can be biased by incorrect handling of data from women who start assisted reproductive technology therapy before the end of the follow-up period. This paper discusses the validity and the impact of the assumption of non-informative censoring as used in the Kaplan-Meier and Cox models. METHODS In a cohort of 5360 subfertile couples with suspected tubal pathology, the probability of natural conception and the prognostic value of additional tests for tubal pathology were estimated using traditional methods and with a competing risks analysis. RESULTS The estimated probability of natural conception within 3 years was almost 2-fold higher when assuming non-informative censoring compared with the competing risks model, 41 versus 22%. The prognostic value of tests was more conservative using the competing risks model than with the traditional methods, the fecundity rate ratio for Chlamydia antibody testing was 0.72 versus 0.67, for hysterosalpingography, 0.83 versus 0.71 and for diagnostic laparoscopy, 0.89 versus 0.74. CONCLUSIONS Given the improbable validity of the non-informative censoring assumption, the predictions of natural conception and of the prognostic value of tests are likely to be overestimated by the traditional analytic methods. We suggest the use of competing risks models as an alternative, more conservative, form of analysis when predicting natural conception and evaluating prognostic fertility tests.

Estimation of a decreasing hazard of patients with acute coronary syndrome

The Kaplan-Meier, Nelson-Aalen and Breslow estimators are widely used in the analysis of right-censored time to event data in medical applications. These methods are fully non-parametric and do not put any restriction on the shape of the hazard curve. In some applications, this leads to implausible estimates of the hazard course over time. With non-parametric shape-constrained estimation techniques, one can facilitate an increasing or decreasing hazard and thus generate estimators that better match the biological reasoning, without being as restrictive as parametric methods. We illustrate the advantage of such techniques in the analysis of a large clinical trial in cardiology. Simulation results show that in case the true hazard is monotone, the non-parametric shape-constrained estimators are more accurate than the traditional estimators on the hazard level. On the (cumulative) distribution function level, the shape-constrained estimators show similar performance as the traditional ones.