Nabeil K. G. Salama

Simulated environmental transport distances of Lepeophtheirus salmonis in Loch Linnhe, Scotland, for informing aquaculture area management structures

In the majority of salmon farming countries, production occurs in zones where practices are coordinated to manage disease agents such as Lepeophtheirus salmonis. To inform the structure of zones in specific systems, models have been developed accounting for parasite biology and system hydrodynamics. These models provide individual system farm relationships, and as such, it may be beneficial to produce more generalized principles for informing structures. Here, we use six different forcing scenarios to provide simulations from a previously described model of the Loch Linnhe system, Scotland, to assess the maximum dispersal distance of lice particles released from 12 sites transported over 19 day. Results indicate that the median distance travelled is 6.1 km from release site with <2.5% transported beyond 15 km, which occurs from particles originating from half of the release sites, with an absolute simulated distance of 36 km observed. This provides information suggesting that the disease management areas developed for infectious salmon anaemia control may also have properties appropriate for salmon lice management in Scottish coastal waters. Additionally, general numerical descriptors of the simulated relative lice abundance reduction with increased distance from release location are proposed.

A comparison of modelling approaches to assess the transmission of pathogens between Scottish fish farms: the role of hydrodynamics and site biomass.

Scotland is the largest Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) producer in the EU with an output of over 150,000 t, contributing over £500 million annually towards the economy. Production continues to increase, predominantly due to the increase in output per farm and reduction in losses due to infectious diseases. Farms are grouped within disease management areas whose boundaries are defined by where the closest pair of farms is separated by more than twice the tidal excursion distance (TE) Tidal excursion is defined as 7.2 km in mainland Scotland, or 3.6 km in the Shetland Islands). The majority of salmon farms are located within relatively sheltered inshore areas where non-tidal advective current speed is minimal. However there is an aspiration for offshore production where it might be possible to increase stocking levels and where current speeds will be greater so TE models could break down. Separation distances whereby farms would avoid infection risk were obtained using an analytical, discrete-time Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model coupled with a hydrodynamic transport expression representing transmission of pathogenic agents between fish farms. The model incorporated transmission, expression and recovery parameters as well as pathogen shedding and decay. The simplified hydrodynamic model incorporated residual advection, tidal advection and turbulent diffusion elements. The obtained separation distances were compared to a computationally intensive, numerical model and were demonstrated to be comparable, although the analytical model underestimated the variation within the transmission distances. Applying characteristics for a robust pathogen, infectious pancreatic necrosis virus type (IPNV-type), and less robust pathogens such as infectious salmon anaemia virus type (ISAV-type) and Aeromonas salmonicida type (AS-type) pathogens, it was possible to obtain separation distances whereby farms avoided infection. Simulation outputs indicated that separation distances should increase to avoid disease as farm size and current speed increase. The more conserved IPNV-type pathogen required separation distances of hundreds of kilometres, AS-type required tens of kilometres, whilst the distances for ISAV-type were within the scale of the current DMAs, that were developed for ISAV control. However, should production be moved to areas of faster moving currents and increased farm production the current disease management area principles might need readdressing.

Factors influencing the long-term dynamics of larval sea lice density at east and west coast locations in Scotland

Sea lice (Copepoda: Caligidae) are marine copepods that parasitize finfish, and in cases of high infestation can result in severe epithelial damage and mortality. In Scotland, 2 species of sea louse, Lepeophtheirus salmonis and Caligus elongatus, pose a significant economic burden to the marine Atlantic salmon aquaculture industry and potentially impact wild salmonids. The purpose of this study was to determine how the density of pelagic sea lice is affected by external variables, in order to improve our understanding of sea lice dynamics. Long-term data from 2 sampling sites on the east and west coasts of Scotland were modelled independently in conjunction with environmental and anthropogenic variables. Statistical analysis identified that at the east coast site, the most influential factor affecting lice density was salinity. On the west coast, salinity, rainfall and farmed salmon production year were most influential. Molecular and morphological techniques also showed that the individuals recorded on the east coast were C. elongatus, a generalist copepod parasite, whereas only the salmonid-specific L. salmonis were found on the west. These results reiterate the role of environmental factors in influencing sea lice dynamics, and that salmonids are the primary hosts of sea lice on the west coast, but there could be non-salmonid host species as well as salmonid species influencing east coast sea lice densities.

Influence of body condition on the population dynamics of Atlantic salmon with consideration of the potential impact of sea lice

Atlantic salmon Salmo salar is an iconic species of high conservation and economic importance. At sea, individuals typically are subject to sea lice infestation, which can have detrimental effects on their host. Over recent decades, the body condition and marine survival in NE Atlantic stocks have generally decreased, reflected in fewer adults returning to rivers, which is partly attributable to sea lice. We developed a deterministic stage-structured population model to assess condition-mediated population dynamics resulting in changing fecundity, age at sexual maturation and marine survival rate. The model is parameterized using data from the North Esk system, north-east Scotland. Both constant and density-dependent juvenile survival rates are considered. We show that even small sea lice-mediated changes in mean body condition of MSW can cause substantial population declines, whereas 1SW condition is less influential. Density dependence alleviates the condition-mediated population effect. The resilience of the population to demographic perturbations declines as adult condition is reduced. Indirect demographic changes in salmonid life-history traits (e.g., body condition) are often considered unimportant for population trajectory. The model shows that Atlantic salmon population dynamics can be highly responsive to sea lice-mediated effects on adult body condition, thus highlighting the importance of non-lethal parasitic long-term effects.

Physical oceanography work in support of aquaculture and an application of bio-physical modelling to investigate connectivity between farm management areas in Scotland

We investigate the importance of understanding the underlying physical oceanography of fjordic systems and the coastal region to support aquaculture. Tools, including observations and hydrodynamic modelling, are described and put in context of sustainably managing aquaculture. Output from hydrodynamic models, in this case the Scottish Shelf Model, can then be coupled to bio-physical models. Sea lice are used here as an example of a parasite, being represented as passive particles with only the infective stage captured for connectivity work. Outputs from this application of bio-physical modelling are analysed to evaluate connectivity between Farm Management Areas on the Scottish west coast and islands. The resulting connectivity matrices show distinct clusters of connectivity for neighbouring management areas as well as further reaching connections at lower probability, in line with the prevailing circulation. Bio-physical modelling can be a useful tool to inform policy, management, and industry with regard to disease spread and management practices.

Developing a method to investigate infestation pressure from sea lice on migratory salmonids utilising towed & static sentinel cages

A number of studies have linked the presence of fish farms to sea lice in the environment (e.g. Harte et al 2017) and infestations of wild salmonids (Middlemas et al. 2010 Vollset et al. 2016a) and subsequent population dynamics in marine aquaculture areas (V⊘llestad et al. 2009; Vollset et al. 2016a). Although there are studies looking at the effect of migration behaviour on mortality (e.g. Vollset et al. 2016b), no study has ever been carried out to design and deploy equipment to measure the specific infestation pressure salmon smolts may experience from sea lice as they enter the marine environment and migrate down a sea loch towards the open sea in a region containing Atlantic salmon aquaculture.