Namkee Ahn

Measuring the Value of Children by Sex and Age Using a Dynamic Programming Model

One of the important determinants of fertility is the value of children as perceived by parents. This paper estimates gender- and age-specific values of children using a dynamic programming model. The underlying hypothesis is that observed fertility outcome for any couple is the solution to their life-cycle optimization problem. Findings from the Korean data indicate that children impose net costs when young and net benefits when old. Both the early costs and the later benefits are larger for male children than female children, and for better-educated women than lowereducated women. Simulation studies which use estimated values of children suggest that a decrease in the costs of abortion and pre-natal gender-screening tests may raise the male-birth ratio through gender-selective abortions.

‘Mondays in the Sun:’ Unemployment, Time Use, and Consumption Patterns in Spain

Abstract This study is a first step toward learning about the implications of unemployment for the combination of consumption expenditures and time use within households under the theoretical basis of Beckers (1965) household production theory. We examine the Spanish experience, where the unemployment rate was above 15% from the early 1980s to the late 1990s and, clearly, many unemployed workers were out of jobs involuntarily. Our results seem consistent with the main prediction of household production theory. As time is less scarce, we expect that unemployed workers spend more time in the production of commodities, which are relatively time-intensive. Time-intensive commodities (passive leisure, active leisure, housework, and child care) are produced more in households with unemployed individuals. We also find that (with the exception of single females) the proportion of consumption expenditures in time-saving goods is lower in households with unemployed individuals.

Effects of the One-Child Family Policy on Second and Third Births in Hebei, Shaanxi and Shanghai

This paper uses the proportional hazards model to assess the effect of the Chinese one-child policy on second and third births. The differential effects of the policy between the urban and rural areas and by the sex of previous children are highlighted. First, the urban-rural differentials have increased much after the policy, suggesting a more rapid increase in the costs of children and stricter government controls in the urban areas. Second, the sex of children has become a more important factor after the policy. The considerably higher risks to a subsequent birth among sonless families indicate the persistent strong son preferences among Chinese parents, especially in less developed areas. Although son preferences seem suppressed in Shanghai, the higher risks to a second birth after the death of a son compared to a daughter are indicative of the son preferences even in Shanghai. Relaxation of the one-child policy may increase the Chinese fertility.

A comparative study of socioeconomic and demographic determinants of fertility in Togo and Uganda.

A comparative study of fertility in Togo and Uganda based on recent Demographic and Health Survey data reveals that in both countries women younger than 25 and those educated beyond the primary level are having their first birth later than are older women and women with less education. These differentials are more pronounced in Togo where they suggest the beginning of voluntary control of fertility than in Uganda. In Togo womens education has a large and increasingly negative effect on the tempo of progression to subsequent births beginning with the fourth year of schooling and accelerating sharply at the seventh year; in Uganda womens education has no effect. The death of the previous child has a large positive effect on the probability of a short birth interval; this effect is considerably larger in Togo than in Uganda. Furthermore the community level of infant mortality is positively associated with the probability of an early subsequent birth in Togo while the opposite is true in Uganda. (authors)