Nancy E. Morden

Change in End-of-Life Care for Medicare Beneficiaries: Site of Death, Place of Care, and Health Care Transitions in 2000, 2005, and 2009

IMPORTANCE A recent Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report found that more persons die at home. This has been cited as evidence that persons dying in the United States are using more supportive care. OBJECTIVE To describe changes in site of death, place of care, and health care transitions between 2000, 2005, and 2009. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS Retrospective cohort study of a random 20% sample of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries, aged 66 years and older, who died in 2000 (n = 270,202), 2005 (n = 291,819), or 2009 (n = 286,282). A multivariable regression model examined outcomes in 2000 and 2009 after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics. Based on billing data, patients were classified as having a medical diagnosis of cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or dementia in the last 180 days of life. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Site of death, place of care, rates of health care transitions, and potentially burdensome transitions (eg, health care transitions in the last 3 days of life). RESULTS Our random 20% sample included 848,303 fee-for-service Medicare decedents (mean age, 82.3 years; 57.9% female, 88.1% white). Comparing 2000, 2005, and 2009, the proportion of deaths in acute care hospitals decreased from 32.6% (95% CI, 32.4%-32.8%) to 26.9% (95% CI, 26.7%-27.1%) to 24.6% (95% CI, 24.5%-24.8%), respectively. However, intensive care unit (ICU) use in the last month of life increased from 24.3% (95% CI, 24.1%-24.5%) to 26.3% (95% CI, 26.1%-26.5%) to 29.2% (95% CI, 29.0%-29.3%). (Test of trend P value was <.001 for each variable.) Hospice use at the time of death increased from 21.6% (95% CI, 21.4%-21.7%) to 32.3% (95% CI, 32.1%-32.5%) to 42.2% (95% CI, 42.0%-42.4%), with 28.4% (95% CI, 27.9%-28.5%) using a hospice for 3 days or less in 2009. Of these late hospice referrals, 40.3% (95% CI, 39.7%-40.8%) were preceded by hospitalization with an ICU stay. The mean number of health care transitions in the last 90 days of life increased from 2.1 (interquartile range [IQR], 0-3.0) to 2.8 (IQR, 1.0-4.0) to 3.1 per decedent (IQR, 1.0-5.0). The percentage of patients experiencing transitions in the last 3 days of life increased from 10.3% (95% CI, 10.1%-10.4%) to 12.4% (95% CI, 12.3%-2.5%) to 14.2% (95% CI, 14.0%-14.3%). CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE Among Medicare beneficiaries who died in 2009 and 2005 compared with 2000, a lower proportion died in an acute care hospital, although both ICU use and the rate of health care transitions increased in the last month of life.

End-Of-Life Care For Medicare Beneficiaries With Cancer Is Highly Intensive Overall And Varies Widely

Studies have shown that cancer care near the end of life is more aggressive than many patients prefer. Using a cohort of deceased Medicare beneficiaries with poor-prognosis cancer, meaning that they were likely to die within a year, we examined the association between hospital characteristics and eleven end-of-life care measures, such as hospice use and hospitalization. Our study revealed a relatively high intensity of care in the last weeks of life. At the same time, there was more than a twofold variation within hospital groups with common features, such as cancer center designation and for-profit status. We found that these hospital characteristics explained little of the observed variation in intensity of end-of-life cancer care and that none reliably predicted a specific pattern of care. These findings raise questions about what factors may be contributing to this variation. They also suggest that best practices in end-of-life cancer care can be found in many settings and that efforts to improve the quality of end-of-life care should include every hospital category.

Excess heart-disease-related mortality in a national study of patients with mental disorders: identifying modifiable risk factors.

OBJECTIVE People with mental disorders are estimated to die 25 years younger than the general population, and heart disease (HD) is a major contributor to their mortality. We assessed whether Veterans Affairs (VA) health system patients with mental disorders were more likely to die from HD than patients without these disorders, and whether modifiable factors may explain differential mortality risks. METHODS Subjects included VA patients who completed the 1999 Large Health Survey of Veteran Enrollees (LHSV) and were either diagnosed with schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, other psychotic disorders, major depressive disorder or other depression diagnosis or diagnosed with none of these disorders. LHSV data on patient sociodemographic, clinical and behavioral factors (e.g., physical activity, smoking) were linked to mortality data from the National Death Index of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Hierarchical multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess 8-year HD-related mortality risk by diagnosis, adding patient sociodemographic, clinical and behavioral factors. RESULTS Of 147,193 respondents, 11,809 (8%) died from HD. After controlling for sociodemographic and clinical factors, we found that those with schizophrenia [hazard ratio (HR)=1.25; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.15-1.36; P<.001] or other psychotic disorders (HR=1.41; 95% CI: 1.27-1.55; P<.001) were more likely to die from HD than those without mental disorders. Controlling for behavioral factors diminished, but did not eliminate, the impact of psychosis on mortality. Smoking (HR=1.32; 95% CI: 1.26-1.39; P<.001) and inadequate physical activity (HR=1.66; 95% CI: 1.59-1.74; P<.001) were also associated with HD-related mortality. CONCLUSIONS Patients with psychosis were more likely to die from HD. For reduction of HD-related mortality, early interventions that promote smoking cessation and physical activity among veterans with psychotic disorders are warranted.

Trends and geographic variation of opiate medication use in state medicaid fee-for-service programs, 1996 to 2002

Background:Although studies have documented hospital and surgical service geographic variability, prescription use geographic variability is largely unknown. Opiate pain medications are widely used, particularly because the promulgation of clinical guidelines promoting aggressive pain treatment. This study describes temporal and interstate variability in aggregate prescription opiate medication use within U.S. Medicaid programs. Methods:A dataset of 49 states’ fee-for-service (FFS) Medicaid prescription drug dispensing records from 1996 to 2002 was compiled and used to quantify medication dispensing examining all opiates, controlled release oxycodone, and methadone. The defined daily dose (DDD) per 1000 FFS Medicaid adult enrollees per day was calculated for all opiate medication categories. A market basket of nonpain prescription medications was constructed for comparison. Rates, trends, and the coefficient of variation were determined overall, by year and for each state. Results:From 1996 to 2002, overall use of opiate pain medications increased 309%. The market basket use increased 170%. Total opiate dispensing varied widely from state to state, with a range of 6.9 to 44.1 DDD/1000/d in 1996, and 7.1 to 165.0 DDD/1000/d (a 23-fold difference) in 2002. The coefficient of variation was 49.6 in 2002. Controlled release oxycodone and methadone had a greater rate of increase compared with all opiates. Conclusions:The dispensing of opiate medications in Medicaid programs increased at almost twice the rate of nonpain-related medications during the 7-year study period. Large, unexplained geographic variation in aggregate use exists. The impact of Medicaid cost-containment strategies on utilization and outcomes should be investigated.

Further Exploration of the Relationship Between Insulin Glargine and Incident Cancer A retrospective cohort study of older Medicare patients

OBJECTIVE In vitro evidence suggests insulin glargine promotes tumors; observational human studies are conflicting. We aimed to expand understanding of this potential treatment risk. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This retrospective cohort study of type 2 diabetic patients >68 years old used Medicare inpatient, outpatient (2003–2008), and prescription data (2006–2008). Adjusting for patient characteristics, dose, and metformin use, Cox models yielded hazard ratios (HRs) for incident cancer (breast, prostate, pancreas, colon, any site) associated with three forms of insulin: nonglargine, glargine, or glargine plus nonglargine (combination). RESULTS Overall, 81,681 patients were followed for a mean of 23.1 months. Mean age was 77.4 years. Treatment group distribution was 20.7% glargine, 60.5% nonglargine, 18.7% combination insulin. We observed 5,466 incident cancers; crude rates did not vary by treatment group. In fully adjusted models, nonglargine use was the referent; glargine was not associated with significant increased risk of any cancer measure. In secondary analyses including only the top quartile of daily insulin dose patients, glargine was not associated with any cancer risk difference; combination insulin was associated with higher breast cancer risk (HR 1.75 [95% CI 1.10–2.78]) and lower colon cancer risk (0.33 [0.13–0.80]). In age-stratified analyses of highest-dose users, combination insulin conferred a higher risk of breast cancer in those ≤75 years old (2.87 [1.45–1.59]). CONCLUSIONS The general lack of association between glargine-only use and cancer is reassuring. Breast cancer risk associated with high-dose combination insulin in secondary analyses could result from multiple comparisons, residual confounding, or true association; further research is warranted.

Choosing Wisely: Prevalence and Correlates of Low-Value Health Care Services in the United States

BackgroundSpecialty societies in the United States identified low-value tests and procedures that contribute to waste and poor health care quality via implementation of the American Board of Internal Medicine Foundation’s Choosing Wisely initiative.ObjectiveTo develop claims-based algorithms, to use them to estimate the prevalence of select Choosing Wisely services and to examine the demographic, health and health care system correlates of low-value care at a regional level.DesignUsing Medicare data from 2006 to 2011, we created claims-based algorithms to measure the prevalence of 11 Choosing Wisely-identified low-value services and examined geographic variation across hospital referral regions (HRRs). We created a composite low-value care score for each HRR and used linear regression to identify regional characteristics associated with more intense use of low-value services.PatientsFee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries over age 65.Main MeasuresPrevalence of selected Choosing Wisely low-value services.Key ResultsThe national average annual prevalence of the selected Choosing Wisely low-value services ranged from 1.2% (upper urinary tract imaging in men with benign prostatic hyperplasia) to 46.5% (preoperative cardiac testing for low-risk, non-cardiac procedures). Prevalence across HRRs varied significantly. Regional characteristics associated with higher use of low-value services included greater overall per capita spending, a higher specialist to primary care ratio and higher proportion of minority beneficiaries.ConclusionsIdentifying and measuring low-value health services is a prerequisite for improving quality and eliminating waste. Our findings suggest that the delivery of wasteful and potentially harmful services may be a fruitful area for further research and policy intervention for HRRs with higher per-capita spending. These findings should inform action by physicians, health systems, policymakers, payers and consumer educators to improve the value of health care by targeting services and areas with greater use of potentially inappropriate care.

Association of Age, Gender, and Race with Intensity of End-of-Life Care for Medicare Beneficiaries with Cancer

PURPOSE To measure intensity of end-of-life (EOL) care for Medicare cancer patients and variations in care by age, gender, and race. PATIENTS AND METHODS This retrospective cohort analysis of Medicare claims (20% sample) examined 235,821 Medicare Parts A and B fee-for-service patients dying with poor-prognosis cancers between 2003 and 2007. Logistic regression models quantified associations between care intensity and age, gender, and race. Measures included hospitalizations, emergency department (ED) visits, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, in-hospital deaths, late-life chemotherapy administration, overall and late hospice enrollment within six months of death. RESULTS Within 30 days of death, 61.3% of patients were hospitalized, 10.2% were hospitalized more than once, 10.2% visited an ED more than once, 23.7% had ICU admissions, and 28.8% died in-hospital. Within two weeks of death, 6% received chemotherapy. In their final six months, 55.2% accessed hospice, 15.1% within three days of death. Older age (≥75 versus <75) was associated with lower odds ratios (ORs) of 0.49 to 0.89 for aggressive care, and an OR of 0.92 (95% CI 0.89-0.95) for late hospice enrollment. Female gender was associated with lower ORs (0.82 to 0.86) for aggressive care, and an OR of 0.84 (95% CI 0.81-0.86) for late hospice enrollment. Black (versus nonblack) race was associated with higher ORs (1.08 to 1.38) for aggressive acute care, lower ORs for late chemotherapy, OR 0.76 (95% CI 0.71-0.81), and late hospice enrollment, OR 0.81 (95% CI 0.76-0.86). CONCLUSIONS Seniors dying with poor-prognosis cancer experience high-intensity care with rates varying by age, gender, and race.

State Legal Restrictions and Prescription-Opioid Use among Disabled Adults

BACKGROUND In response to rising rates of opioid abuse and overdose, U.S. states enacted laws to restrict the prescribing and dispensing of controlled substances. The effect of these laws on opioid use is unclear. METHODS We tested associations between prescription-opioid receipt and state controlled-substances laws. Using Medicare administrative data for fee-for-service disabled beneficiaries 21 to 64 years of age who were alive throughout the calendar year (8.7 million person-years from 2006 through 2012) and an original data set of laws (e.g., prescription-drug monitoring programs), we examined the annual prevalence of beneficiaries with four or more opioid prescribers, prescriptions yielding a daily morphine-equivalent dose (MED) of more than 120 mg, and treatment for nonfatal prescription-opioid overdose. We estimated how opioid outcomes varied according to eight types of laws. RESULTS From 2006 through 2012, states added 81 controlled-substance laws. Opioid receipt and potentially hazardous prescription patterns were common. In 2012 alone, 47% of beneficiaries filled opioid prescriptions (25% in one to three calendar quarters and 22% in every calendar quarter); 8% had four or more opioid prescribers; 5% had prescriptions yielding a daily MED of more than 120 mg in any calendar quarter; and 0.3% were treated for a nonfatal prescription-opioid overdose. We observed no significant associations between opioid outcomes and specific types of laws or the number of types enacted. For example, the percentage of beneficiaries with a prescription yielding a daily MED of more than 120 mg did not decline after adoption of a prescription-drug monitoring program (0.27 percentage points; 95% confidence interval, -0.05 to 0.59). CONCLUSIONS Adoption of controlled-substance laws was not associated with reductions in potentially hazardous use of opioids or overdose among disabled Medicare beneficiaries, a population particularly at risk. (Funded by the National Institute on Aging and others.).

Sources of Regional Variation in Medicare Part D Drug Spending

BACKGROUND Sources of regional variation in spending for prescription drugs under Medicare Part D are poorly understood, and such variation may reflect differences in health status, use of effective treatments, or selection of branded drugs over lower-cost generics. METHODS We analyzed 2008 Medicare data for 4.7 million beneficiaries for prescription-drug use and expenditures overall and in three drug categories: angiotensin-converting-enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and angiotensin-receptor blockers (ARBs), 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A (HMG-CoA) reductase inhibitors (statins), and selective serotonin-reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors (SNRIs). Differences in per capita expenditures across hospital-referral regions (HRRs) were decomposed into annual prescription volume and cost per prescription. The ratio of prescriptions filled as branded drugs to all prescriptions filled was calculated. We adjusted all measures for demographic, socioeconomic, and health-status differences. RESULTS Mean adjusted per capita pharmaceutical spending ranged from

Prescription Opioid Use Among Disabled Medicare Beneficiaries Intensity, Trends, and Regional Variation

2,413 in the lowest to