Nasir J. Sheikh

Technology roadmap development process (TRDP) in the medical electronic device industry

Technology intelligence using techniques such as data mining or patent analyses is not a new concept in the management of technology. Nevertheless, there is a lack of useful, user-friendly techniques that incorporate quantitative data and expert judgements in technology forecasting, especially if the application targets the medical electronic device industry. This study aims to develop a new model that integrates quantitative data from a variety of sources and expert judgements to develop a technology roadmap for emerging technologies.

Developing a Strategic Roadmap for Policy and Decision Making: Case Study of ICT and Disaster Risk Reduction in Public Safety Networks

Globally, disaster risk management (DRM) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) are recognized as key areas of concern and planning and are embedded in multiple United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The scope is broad and varied. To communicate and coordinate the efforts to realize the goals and policies, a strategic roadmap can be an effective method. However, roadmaps tend to include only general and broad goals, guidelines, and priorities. This can lead to confusion for the policy implementers and practitioners. To avoid this, the roadmap can include multiple layers that translate the policy roadmap elements to specific practical elements to implement policy. This is accomplished by combining roadmapping with the house of quality (HoQ) method. HoQ uses a planning matrix to bridge the relationships. HoQ is used in complex production environments such as automotive but is novel to DRR. One important aspect of DRR is information and communications technologies (ICT) and includes public safety and emergency networks such as FirstNet and SafeNet. ICT for DRR may be defined as the ICT services, applications, infrastructure, systems, and technologies for disaster prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery and may include regional and international communications networks. This research provides an initial roadmap framework of ICT for DRR.

Assessment of Arms Import Policies: Literature Review

Arms transfer policies are generally not aligned between supplier and recipient nations. Hence they involve complex and protracted negotiations and decision making. Decision modeling has been established as an effective method of resolution for such complex scenarios, however, this is a novel approach in arms transfer policy making. In this paper, import policies of recipients are investigated as a required phase for developing a holistic decision model for each side. The objective is to identify policy criteria. For a comprehensive assessment of the arms import policies, a literature review is conducted in multidisciplinary fields of study such as political science, economics, and military science. The results indicate that some topics are field-specific while others, such as diffusions, offsets, and economic considerations are common to multiple disciplines. Hence, a multiple-perspectives approach is applied to include technological, economic, political, industrial, and military (TEPIM) in formulating the decision model for recipients. To conclude, the paper suggests a hierarchical decision model (HDM) framework that incorporates the multiple TEPIM perspectives, their associated criteria, and alternatives to be considered by recipients in making an effective arms import policy. Future research will include a validation process with expert panels to better define the decision model.

Forecasting of biosensor technologies for emerging point of care and medical IoT applications using bibliometrics and patent analysis

Healthcare is beginning to embrace point of care (POC) diagnostics and medical applications that are based on the internet of things (IoT) and the ubiquitous smart phone. Advanced medical diagnostics will utilize biosensors for biological data acquisition. This paper introduces the forecasting of biosensors that have the potential to be used in POC and IoT applications. For this research three types of biosensors were selected. These are biosensors for testing of blood, saliva, and breath. Bibliometrics and patent analysis of these biosensors are used to develop technology maturity rates based on the Fisher-Pry model. The Science Citation Index (SCI) is used for bibliometrics and patent analysis is derived from global patent databases. The Fisher-Pry projections or S-curves enable insights into the maturity levels of the emerging biosensor technologies under consideration and forecasting their growth. Patent analysis based on cumulative annual patent count indicated that blood biosensors reached their technology maturity midpoint in 2009 with the midpoints of saliva and breath biosensors lagging by 8 and 14 years respectively. Bibliometrics with annual publication count did not appear to provide much value in forecasting the maturity growth of the three biosensors.

Technology Assessment: Washington Public Power Supply System (WPPSS)

The Washington Public Power Supply System (WPPSS) is remembered as the largest bond default in the history of the USA. WPPSS was an ambitious program for the construction of multiple nuclear power plants to augment hydroelectric power and instead became known as the WPPSS (or “Woops”) debacle. WPPSS was started as a small municipal corporation in the mid-1950s to meet future electric power needs of the residential, industrial, and commercial sectors in the Northwest region of the United States. The WPPSS charter was to enable electric public utilities to combine their resources to build large power generation plants and benefit from economies of scale. WPPSS initially consisted of 17 utilities including Seattle City Light, Washington State’s largest public utility.

Dissent and games as a consideration in decision making: Case of Solar Photovoltaic Technologies

Research in decision modeling has mainly focused on the ranking of alternative choices based on a consensus or combined judgments of experts and decision makers. However, a decision model can also be used to form the basis of rational conflict and dissent. This is a novel approach. This paper examines the case of a hierarchical decision model that is used to assess alternative solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies under multiple perspectives. The perspectives include: social, technical, economic, environmental, and political. Dissent is evident if only one dominant perspective is considered to evaluate the alternate PV technologies. By using such a decision modeling approach we are able to observe outcomes for both consensus and dissent scenarios. In recent times game theory is defined as the science of interactive decision making. We can also consider a more general definition of game theory as a field of strategic decision making utilizing mathematical models that represent rational decision-makers for conflict and cooperation. This study could be developed further to form a basis of game theory with a large number of players and preferences.

Use of Multiple Perspectives and Decision Modeling for Solar Photovoltaic Technology Assessment

As global warming and foreign oil dependence debates grow, more organizations are evaluating renewable energy. Renewable energy generation technologies are complex systems that have wide-ranging implications in their production and deployment. Using multiple perspectives such as social, technological, economic, environmental, and political (STEEP) and their decomposition into multiple criteria or indicators provide a broader yet explicit assessment of the technology under consideration. An effective method of determining the relative importance of a criterion with respect to others is by hierarchical decision modeling and expert judgment quantification instruments. These combined approaches can improve decision making for technology assessment and selection. This paper describes the approach through an example for photovoltaic solar technologies.