Nathan M. Jensen

Democratic Governance and Multinational Corporations: Political Regimes and Inflows of Foreign Direct Investment

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an important element of the global economy and a central component of economic development strategies of both developed and developing countries. Numerous scholars theorize that the economic benefits of attracting multinational corporations come at tremendous political costs, arguing that democratic political systems attract lower levels of international investment than their authoritarian counterparts. Using both cross-sectional and time-series cross-sectional tests of the determinants of FDI for more than 100 countries, I generate results that are inconsistent with these dire predictions. Democratic political systems attract higher levels of FDI inflows both across countries and within countries over time. Democratic countries are predicted to attract as much as 70 percent more FDI than their authoritarian counterparts. In a final empirical test, I examine how democratic institutions affect country credibility by empirically analyzing the link between democracy and sovereign debt risk for about eighty countries from 1980 to 1998. These empirical tests challenge the conventional wisdom on the preferences of multinationals for authoritarian regimes.

Resource Wealth and Political Regimes in Africa

Political economists point to the levels of economic development, poverty, and income inequality as the most important determinants of political regimes. The authors present empirical evidence suggesting a robust and negative correlation between the presence of a sizable natural resource sector and the level of democracy in Africa. They argue that resource abundance not only is an important determinant of democratic transition but also partially determines the success of democratic consolidation in Africa. The results illuminate the fact that post-Cold War democratic reforms have been successful only in resource-poor countries such as Benin, Mali, and Madagascar. The authors argue that resource-rich countries such as Nigeria and Gabon can become democratic only if they introduce strong mechanisms of vertical and horizontal accountability within the state.

Political Risk, Democratic Institutions, and Foreign Direct Investment

There is a renewed interest in how political risk affects multinational corporations operating in emerging markets. Much of this research has focused on the relationship between democratic institutions and flows of foreign direct investment (FDI). Yet the existing studies suffer from data problems that only allow for indirect evidence of the relationship between political institutions and political risk. In this paper I utilize price data from political risk insurance agencies to directly test how domestic political institutions affect the premiums multinationals pay for coverage against government expropriations and contract disputes. I find that democratic regimes reduce risks for multinational investors, specifically through increasing constraints on the executive. Utilizing qualitative evidence from investors, insurers, and location consultants, I explore the mechanisms linking democratic regimes with lower levels of political risk.

Independent Actor or Agent? An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of U.S. Interests on International Monetary Fund Conditions

In this paper, we analyze whether International Monetary Fund (IMF) conditionality is exclusively designed to be in line with observable economic indicators or whether it is partly driven by the IMFs major shareholder, the United States. A panel data analysis of 206 letters of intent from 38 countries, submitted during the period April 1997 through February 2003, revealed that the number of conditions on an IMF loan depended on a borrowing country’s voting pattern in the UN General Assembly. Closer allies of the United States (and other Group of 7 [G7] countries) received IMF loans with fewer conditions, especially prior to elections. These results are relevant to current public policy debates on the role and process of setting IMF loan conditions and provide broader insight into the influence of the United States and other G7 countries on international institutions.

Foreign Direct Investment and Income Inequality in Mexico, 1990-2000

In this article we explore the relationship between the investments of multinational corporations (foreign direct investment) and income inequality in Mexico. We argue that Mexicos liberalization of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in the 1990s provides a natural experiment to test how FDI affects income inequality in a middle-income country. We use an instrumental variables approach as our identification strategy to mitigate problems of endogeneity and omitted variable bias. In an empirical test of the determinants of changes in income inequality from 1990 to 2000, we find that increased FDI inflows are associated with a decrease in income inequality within Mexicos thirty-two states.The authors would like to thank Lawrence Broz, John Freeman, Matt Gabel, Geoff Garrett, Quan Li, Eddy Malesky, Layna Mosley, Katie Ridgeway, Pablo Pinto, John Stringer, and Andy Sobel for comments and suggestions. Jacob Gerber and Mariana Medina provided excellent research assistance. Thanks also to Patricio Aroca Gonzalez for generously providing us with his data. We acknowledge the financial support of the Weidenbaum Center on the Economy, Government, and Public Policy. Nate Jensens contribution to this article was written as a Global Fellow at UCLAs International Institute.

Crisis, Conditions, and Capital: The Effect of International Monetary Fund Agreements on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows

A selection model for 68 countries between 1970 and 1998 is used to test the impact of International Monetary Fund(IMF) programs on international capital markets and examine how agreements are perceived by multinational investors. Results reveal that even after controlling for the factors that lead countries to seek IMF support, IMF agreements lead to lower levels of foreign direct investment (FDI). Countries that sign IMF agreements, ceteris paribus, attract 25% less FDI inflows than countries not under IMF agreements.

Politics and Foreign Direct Investment

For decades, free trade was advocated as the vehicle for peace, prosperity, and democracy in an increasingly globalized market. More recently, the proliferation of foreign direct investment has raised questions about its impact upon local economies and politics. Here, seven scholars bring together their wide-ranging expertise to investigate the factors that determine the attractiveness of a locale to investors and the extent of their political power. Multinational corporations prefer to invest where legal and political institutions support the rule of law, protections for property rights, and democratic processes. Corporate influence on local institutions, in turn, depends upon the relative power of other players and the types of policies at issue.

Political Risk, Reputation, and the Resource Curse

There is a growing literature on how natural resources affect both economic performance and political regimes. In this paper we add to this literature by focusing on how natural resource wealth affects the incentives of governments to uphold contracts with foreign investors across all sectors. We argue that while all states suffer reputation costs from reneging on contracts, governments in natural re-source dependent economies are less sensitive to these costs, leading to a greater probability of expropriation and contract disputes. Specifically, leaders weigh the benefits of reneging on contracts with investors against the reputation costs of openly violating agreements with firms. Our theoretical model predicts a positive association between resource wealth and expropriation. Using a dataset from the political risk insurance industry we show that resource dependent economies have much higher levels of political risk.

Market Responses to Politics The Rise of Lula and the Decline of the Brazilian Stock Market

This article argues that stock market responses to political events provide information on how politics affect markets. Political events, such as the election of a politician that is expected to enact “market-friendly” policies, lead to increases in stock market returns. Conversely, political events that are expected to have a negative impact on the economy and specific firms lead to decreases in stock market returns. The 2002 Brazilian presidential election provides a critical case study for evaluating this hypothesis. The authors use movements in the Brazilian stock market as proxies for future expectations for the Brazilian economy. Using a number of time-series regressions, they estimate the impact of the four main Brazilian presidential candidates on the mean and variance of the Brazilian stock market. These findings provide important insights into the expected impact of the main presidential candidates on the Brazilian economy and more generally, the relationship between elections and economic performance.

Unbundling the Relationship between Authoritarian Legislatures and Political Risk

A strong statistical association between legislative opposition in authoritarian regimes and investment has been interpreted as evidence that authoritarian legislatures constrain executive decisions and reduce the threat of expropriation. Although the empirical relationship is robust, scholars have not provided systematic evidence that authoritarian parliaments are able to restrain the actions of state leaders, reverse activities they disagree with, or remove authoritarian leaders who violate the implied power-sharing arrangement. This article shows that authoritarian legislatures, by providing a forum for horse trading between private actors, are better at generating corporate governance legislation that protects investors from corporate insiders than they are at preventing expropriation by governments. The statistical analysis reveals that the strength of authoritarian legislatures is associated with corporate governance rules and not expropriation risk.