Nathaniel Jensen

Index Insurance Quality and Basis Risk: Evidence from Northern Kenya

The number of index insurance pilots in developing countries has grown tremendously in recent years, but there has been little progress in our understanding of the quality of those products. Basis risk, or remaining uninsured risk, is a widely recognized but rarely measured feature of index insurance product quality. This article uses eight semi-annual seasons of longitudinal household data to examine the distribution of basis risk associated with an index-based livestock insurance (IBLI) product in northern Kenya. We find that IBLI coverage reduces exposure to covariate risk due to large shocks and mitigates downside risk substantially for many households, even at commercial premium rates. But index insurance is no magic bullet; insured households continue to face considerable basis risk. Examining the components of basis risk, we find that IBLI reduces exposure to covariate risk due to high loss events by an average of 63%. The benefits of reduced covariate risk exposure are relatively small, however, due to high exposure to seemingly mostly random idiosyncratic risk, even in this population often thought to suffer largely from covariate shocks. The result is that IBLI policyholders are left with an average of 69% of their original risk due to high loss events. This research underscores the need for caution when promoting index insurance as a risk mitigation tool, as well as the importance of product quality evaluation.

Agricultural Index Insurance for Development

Index insurance is often promoted as a solution to many of the barriers that are thought to limit the supply of formal insurance coverage to smallholder farmers and livestock owners in developing countries. This manuscript summarizes the state of index insurance, paying special attention to the key challenges facing index insurance if it is to become a more effective tool for development. We then offer recommendations to tackle those challenges by strategically investing in a set of public goods and services geared towards addressing key informational gaps and improving the quality of index insurance products around the world.

Index Insurance and Cash Transfers: A Comparative Analysis from Northern Kenya

Cash transfers and index insurance have become popular interventions by development agencies worldwide, yet surprisingly little is known about these programs’ comparative impacts on participant behavior or well-being. This paper exploits exogenous variation in program participation and panel data from Kenya to compare the causal impacts of a cash transfer program (HSNP) and an index-based insurance product (IBLI), which were implemented contemporaneously among the same population. We find that both programs benefit clients. HSNP improves child health, as measured by mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), and helps households maintain their mobility-dependent livestock production strategies. Households with IBLI coverage make productivity increasing investments, reduce distress sales of livestock during droughts, and see a marked increase in income per adult equivalent. Estimating the impacts per total program costs reveals that the two programs perform comparably on average, while IBLI’s impacts per unit marginal cost are considerably larger than HSNP’s.

Competing expectations in an Index-Based Livestock Insurance Project

Abstract Despite donor enthusiasm for index-based microinsurance, globally, pilots have struggled to realise its promises. This paper considers the Kenyan Index-Based Livestock Insurance pilot, investigating the competing expectations held by actors including (re)insurers, researchers, donors, NGOs, and pastoralists. We explore expectations’ impacts on partner involvement, project outcomes, sales, and the future outlook for Kenyan livestock insurance. Quantitative analysis suggests early demand and subsequent backlash were not results of systematic mis-selling, but rather stemmed from clients’ unfulfilled expectations of patron-like relationships with insurance partners. We caution against exaggerated expectations of profitability and call for reflection and transparency amidst the embrace of insurance tools.