Nazli Ismail

Geophysical assessment and geotechnical investigation of quick-clay landslides – a Swedish case study

We present a preliminary assessment of the potential utility of various geophysical measurements carried out over a quick-clay landslide site in south-west Sweden. The multidisciplinary approach includes active P- and S-wave seismic investigations, including 2D and 3D reflection and refraction surveys, passive single and 3C seismic surveys, electrical resistivity tomography and electromagnetic surveys including controlled-source and radio-magnetotellurics, ground-penetrating radar and potential field studies. The P-wave and particularly S-wave reflection seismic data show a highresolution image of bedrock topography and the stratigraphy of a 100 m thick sequence of sediments that lies on top, which include lightly consolidated quick-clays. Of particular interest is the identification of a layer of relatively coarse-grained material between 10–20 m below the ground surface. Geotechnical investigations indicate that most but not all quick-clays at the site are located above this layer. Further studies are required to determine the importance of their relationship and whether the coarse-grained layer may have had a role in triggering quick-clay landslides in the region. Geoelectrical and electromagnetic methods provide high-resolution images of the unconsolidated subsurface and particularly the normal and leached clays. Radio-magnetotelluric methods proved valuable near the river where traditional geoelectrical methods failed to provide sufficient depth coverage. The study shows that geophysical data are able to image major subsurface structures associated with quick-clay landslides.

Highly variable recurrence of tsunamis in the 7,400 years before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here we present an extraordinary 7,400 year stratigraphic sequence of prehistoric tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Aceh, Indonesia. This record demonstrates that at least 11 prehistoric tsunamis struck the Aceh coast between 7,400 and 2,900 years ago. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda megathrust ruptures as large as that of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

Penultimate predecessors of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in Aceh, Sumatra: stratigraphic, archeological, and historical evidence

We present stratigraphic, archeological and historical evidence for two closely timed predecessors of the giant 2004 tsunami on the northern coast of Aceh, northern Sumatra. This is the first direct evidence that a tsunami played a role in a fifteenth century cultural hiatus along the northern Sumatran portion of the maritime silk route. One seacliff exposure on the eastern side of the Lambaro headlands reveals two beds of tsunamigenic coral rubble within a small alluvial fan. Radiocarbon and Uranium-Thorium disequilibrium dates indicate emplacement of the coral rubble after 1344 ± 3 C.E. Another seacliff exposure, on the western side of the peninsula, contains evidence of nearly continuous settlement from ~1240 C.E. to soon after 1366 ± 3 C.E., terminated by tsunami destruction. At both sites, the tsunamis are likely coincident with sudden uplift of coral reefs above the Sunda megathrust 1394 ± 2 C.E., evidence for which has been published previously. The tsunami (or tsunami pair) appears to have destroyed a vibrant port community and led to the temporary recentering of marine trade dominance to more protected locations farther east. The reestablishment of vibrant communities along the devastated coast by about 1500 CE set the stage for the 2004 disaster.

Accommodation space, relative sea level, and the archiving of paleo-earthquakes along subduction zones

The spatial variability of Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) change influences the capacities of coastal environments to accommodate a sedimentary record of paleoenvironmental change. In this study we couch a specific investigation in more general terms in order to demonstrate the applicability of the relative sea-level history approach to paleoseismic investigations. Using subsidence stratigraphy, we trace the different modes of coastal sedimentation over the course of time in the eastern Indian Ocean where RSL change evolved from rapidly rising to static from 8000 yr ago to present. Initially, the coastal sites from the Aceh, Sumatra, coastal plain, which are subject to repeated great earthquakes and tsunamis, built up a sedimentary sequence in response to a RSL rise of 1.4 mm/yr. The sequence found at 2 sites 8 km apart contained 3 soils of a mangrove origin (Rhizophora, Bruguiera/Ceriops, Avicennia pollen, and/or intertidal foraminifera) buried by sudden submergence related to coseismic subsidence and 6 tsunami sands that contain pristine subtidal and planktic foraminifera. After 3800 cal yr B.P. (years before A.D. 1950), sea level stabilized and remained such to the present. The stable relative sea level reduced accommodation space in the late Holocene, suggesting that the continued aggradation of the coastal plain was a consequence of periodic coastal inundation by tsunamis.

The electrical conductivity distribution of the Hallandsås Horst, Sweden: a controlled source radiomagnetotelluric study

We studied the behaviour of controlled source responses of 2½D synthetic models based on controlled source tensor magnetotelluric (f = 1–12 kHz) and radio magnetotelluric (f = 14–250 kHz) data sets collected along profiles on the Hallandsas Horst, Southern Sweden, with a view to study the depth extent of possible near-surface fractures zones that might intersect a tunnel under construction. Based upon 2.5D forward modelling of the transverse electric (TE) and transverse magnetic (TM) mode radio magnetotelluric data, a simplified 2D model was constructed such that a dipping conductor was continued down to a depth of 140 m, which is the depth of the tunnel. Based on this extended model, we calculated both plane wave and controlled source responses for the frequency range 1–250 kHz corresponding to the source location in the study. Finally, we inverted both data sets under plane wave assumptions. When comparing synthetic controlled source and plane wave data in the frequency range 1–12 kHz, we find that the controlled source tensor magnetotelluric transfer functions generally deviate from the plane wave condition for frequencies less than 6 kHz. The phases are much more distorted than apparent resistivities. The TM mode phases, in particular, are generally distorted for frequencies less than 6 kHz. Regarding the vertical magnetic fields, we find that at all frequencies the real part of tippers are distorted by source effects but the tipper component along the profile direction is much less affected by the off-profile lying controlled source tensor magnetotelluric source than the tipper component orthogonal to the profile direction. Based upon synthetic model studies of combined controlled source tensor magnetotelluric and radio magnetotelluric responses, we find that determinant data are less distorted than individual TE- and TM-mode data. On the other hand, TE- and TM-responses have greater resolving power and, when used with care (selecting data that are weakly distorted by source effects), the corresponding models can resolve the conductor down to tunnel depths.

Geodetic and Geomorphic Evaluations of Earthquake Generation Potential of the Northern Sumatran Fault, Indonesia

We have conducted geodetic and geomorphic observations in the northernmost part of Sumatra, Indonesia to monitor strain accumulation in the vicinity of the northern Sumatran fault. Evaluation of the earthquake generation potential in this region is highly urgent because of a large fault slip rate, absence of major earthquakes for more than 100 years and recent Coulomb stress increase on the fault due to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake (M w 9. 2). We have deployed Aceh GPS Network for the Sumatran Fault System (AGNeSS) since 2005. The data collected have been used for estimating slip/locking distribution of the Sumatran fault and constructing a comprehensive model for postseismic deformation after the 2004 event. Tectonic geomorphic features are also important to reveal long-term slip history of the fault. We have used high-resolution stereo-paired ALOS (Advanced Land Observing Satellite) PRISM (Panchromatic Remote-sensing Instrument for Stereo Mapping) satellite images to map the surface trace of the Sumatran fault and conducted field observations to ensure the trace by geomorphic and geologic evidence. We introduce preliminary results of the fault mapping together with a brief description of the crustal deformation field detected by GPS.

Evaluation of the 2012 Indian Ocean coseismic fault model in 3-D heterogeneous structure based on vertical and horizontal GNSS observation

Lack of observation network in the vicinity of oceanic intraplate earthquake lead the estimation of coseismic fault slip with high uncertainty. Satriano et al. [2] and Wei et al. [3] found NNE trending left-lateral slip as the primary features. In another hand, Yue et al. [4] and Hill et al. [5] proposed WNW trending right-lateral faults structure as the main characteristic. Here, we investigate the coseismic fault model that could explain the coseismic offset both vertical and horizontal in a 3-D heterogeneous earth structure. We constructed finite element model that include three-dimensional velocity structure, topography/bathymetry, spherical-earth and subducting slab. In this study, we employed scaling slip to adjust slip amount and total seismic moment. Instead of original slip amount, we preserve seismic moment as a basis comparison. Based on vertical and horizontal observation data, WNW trending right-lateral fault could fit better than NNE trending left-lateral fault. The present study demonstrates best-fit calculation using scaling slip optimized to the horizontal or vertical observation lead the both fault model worsen the misfit of vertical or horizontal component, respectively. This result analysis indicates a trade-off between vertical and horizontal component and reflects the importance of revisiting the fault slip modeling incorporating vertical and horizontal data equally.Lack of observation network in the vicinity of oceanic intraplate earthquake lead the estimation of coseismic fault slip with high uncertainty. Satriano et al. [2] and Wei et al. [3] found NNE trending left-lateral slip as the primary features. In another hand, Yue et al. [4] and Hill et al. [5] proposed WNW trending right-lateral faults structure as the main characteristic. Here, we investigate the coseismic fault model that could explain the coseismic offset both vertical and horizontal in a 3-D heterogeneous earth structure. We constructed finite element model that include three-dimensional velocity structure, topography/bathymetry, spherical-earth and subducting slab. In this study, we employed scaling slip to adjust slip amount and total seismic moment. Instead of original slip amount, we preserve seismic moment as a basis comparison. Based on vertical and horizontal observation data, WNW trending right-lateral fault could fit better than NNE trending left-lateral fault. The present study demonstrate...

Investigation of Aceh Segment and Seulimeum Fault by using seismological data; A preliminary result

The Seulimeum Fault has not generated large earthquake after last large earthquake with magnitude of M 7.3 occured in 1936. The Seulimeum Fault is accompanied by the Seulawah volcano that reported to be active in 1839, 1975 and 2010. The activity of the Seulimeum Fault could be related with the existence of the Seulawah volcano and the Seulawah volcano activity could also triggered by the Seulumeum Fault activity. The objective of the longterm research is to investigate the relation between the Seulimeum Fault and the Seulawah Volcano. The aim of this paper is to present the first result of the investigation of the Seulimeum Fault based on the seismicity and geomorphology. A seismic network consisting of 17 seismometers (Trilium Compact) and data logger (DSS Cube) were deployed in Aceh Besar. The seismic network was installed for 3 months to record earthquakes along the Seulimeum and the Aceh Faults. The Seulimeum Fault is considered to be active as several local earthquakes were recorded. The Seulimeum Fault is much more active in the region of the bifurcation of the The Aceh Segment and the Seulimeum Fault. The mechanisms of earthquakes along the Seulimeum Fault were mostly strike slip following similar to the Sumatran Fault characteristics.

Coseismic Slip Distribution of the 2 July 2013 Mw 6.1 Aceh, Indonesia, Earthquake and Its Tectonic ImplicationsCoseismic Slip Distribution of the 2 July 2013 Mw 6.1 Aceh, Indonesia, Earthquake

This study investigates the coseismic slip distribution of the 2 July 2013 Mw 6.1 Aceh earthquake using Global Positioning System (GPS) data, measured geological surface offsets, and an aftershock distribution for a period of four days after the mainshock. We use the aftershock distribution to constrain the fault-plane strike of a right-lateral fault identified as the Pantan Terong segment. We estimate the coseismic slip distribution with dip angle information from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) (model 1) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) (model 2) catalogs. We also estimate the coseismic slip distribution using another two fault models. Model 3 is constructed on a left-lateral fault, the Celala segment, which is perpendicular to the Aceh segment of the Sumatran fault, and model 4 is constructed using the multiple faults in models 2 and 3. We further estimate the coseismic slip distribution of this earthquake by employing an elastic dislocation model, inverting only the GPS displacements for model 3 and jointly inverting GPS displacements and geological surface offsets for models 1, 2, and 4. Minimum misfit between data and model is obtained with model 3, suggesting that the earthquake slip occurred along a left-lateral fault. Analysis of stress transfer caused by the 2013 earthquake indicates that the stress level along the Pantan Terong segment is > 0:4 bar and the southeast part of Aceh segment was brought ∼0:3 bar closer to failure, suggesting a possible earthquake occurrence in the future. This work demonstrates that the seismicity-derived fault plane fails to predict the surface displacement, and that the inferred Celala segment produces positive stress on Pantan Terong segment and potentially triggered all the aftershocks.