Ned Levine

The Effects of Local Growth Controls on Regional Housing Production and Population Redistribution in California

Based on two surveys of 490 Californian cities and counties, the study examines the effects of local growth-control enactment between 1979 and 1988 on net housing construction between 1980 and 1990. It is shown that local growth-management measures significantly displaced new construction, particularly rental housing, possibly exacerbating the expansion of the metropolitan areas into the interiors of the state. Further, the measures impacted low-income households and minorities particularly. Not all growth-control measures were associated with this change. Measures which limited available land or which downsized existing zoning had stronger effects.

The Changing Commute: A Case-study of the Jobs-Housing Relationship over Time

Commuting patterns between home and work were studied among 30 000 employees of Kaiser Permanente, a major health care provider in Southern California. The study tracked the differences between home and work location among employees over 6 years by analysing employee records and responses to a survey of over 1500 of the workers. It was found that work trip lengths had in general not grown over the 6 year period. Growth of the work force had contributed more to the growth in local traffic congestion than had a lengthening of the work trip over time. The automobile remains the dominant mode of travel between home and work for these employees, and choices of residential location were found to be based upon many factors in addition to the home-work separation, such as quality of neighbourhood and schools and perceived safety.

Spatial Statistics and GIS: Software Tools to Quantify Spatial Patterns

Abstract With the increasing use of GIS by planners, statistics routines are needed that quantify relationships taking into account spatial location. Spatial statistics is a branch of statistics that includes measures of spatial distribution, spatial autocorrelation, and spatial association. Five statistics packages are described here that calculate various spatial indices useful for planners. In the future, planners will use these methods along with GIS programs to draw more rigorous and quantifiable deductions from their data.

The location of motor vehicle crashes in Honolulu: a methodology for geocoding intersections

Abstract The use of a geographic information system to geocode motor vehicle accidents by intersection (or corner) matching is described. Starting with the basic street network of TIGER or another linear reference system, the process of geocoding is described as well as the types of errors that can be introduced from loosening matching conditions. With an administrative database, such as the 1990 and 1991 motor vehicle accident files from Honolulu, there are sources of error which require modifications to both the attribute and geographic databases in order to properly match records. We describe the nature of errors and provide a procedure for detection and correction of these records. The logic is applied to the 1991 motor vehicle accident file for Honolulu and a method for assessing the accuracy of the geocoding process under different matching conditions is developed. We argue against loosening street name conditions and show that significant error can be introduced. The method can be applied to other databases where intersection matching is required, though the specifics need to be tailored to the individual database. The use of Global Positioning System receivers may supplement or even replace this approach, though there are many problems associated with this technology as well. For the foreseeable future, algorithmic approaches, such as described here, are applicable to crash reporting and other spatially distributed phenomena. The results have implications for the development of the next generation of georeferencing software.

Bus crime in Los Angeles: II—Victims and public impact

This paper documents victims of bus crime and examines the extent to which fear of personal security affects bus ridership. Using data from a victimization survey of 1088 households in west central Los Angeles, it was found that frequency of bus use was the most important correlate of being victimized. Examining moderate and heavy bus users only, it was found that the elderly, women, Hispanics and low-income persons were more likely to be victimized than other subpopulations. There was a general perception that bus travel to downtown Los Angeles was more dangerous than travel within residential neighborhoods, and that night travel was much more dangerous than day travel. Women, Hispanics and persons of low education level were more likely to perceive bus use as dangerous, indicating a subpopulation correspondence between the likelihood of victimization and perceptions of safety from bus crime. In addition, persons who had been victimized by a bus crime or who knew persons who had been victimized were more likely to perceive bus use as less safe. Lastly, it appears that victims of bus crimes, persons who had witnessed bus crimes and persons who perceived bus travel as less safe may be less likely to use buses, especially on certain routes and during certain times, but these variables are secondary in importance to automobile access, the convenience of bus travel and age.

BUS CRIME IN LOS ANGELES I. MEASURING THE INCIDENCE

Abstract Based on a large study of bus crime in Los Angeles, this article discusses a method for estimating the number of transit crimes and examines sources of information loss within existing transit crime statistics. Using data from a victimization survey of 1088 households in west central Los Angeles, it was estimated that there were about 23,000 bus and bus-related crimes occurring in the survey area during 1983. This is 25 to 30 times the number reported by the Southern California Rapid Transit District for their entire service area. Comparisons with the 1980 census were made to evaluate bias in the sample, and it was found that the sample has probably underestimated the total amount of bus crime in the survey area. Results consistent with Los Angeles Police Department records was shown. Bus and bus-related crimes account for 20 to 30% of all crimes experienced by the central city population. Major sources of information loss are (a) crimes occurring outside buses, but during a trip; (b) non-reporting of crimes by victims; (c) non-response by police even when crimes were reported; and (d) statistical “loss” from reports taken by local police; local police do not categorize crimes by transit use. It was recommended that transit agencies cross-classify existing police reports for more accurate information. Local police should be encouraged to systematically collect data on transit behavior for both victims and assailants.

The Construction of a Population Analysis Program Using a Microcomputer Spreadsheet

Abstract This article describes a population analysis program called “HALLEY,” which uses a microcomputer spreadsheet (Lotus 1-2-3). The program calculates a life expectancy table, an age distribution model, a fertility table, and five- and ten-year population projections; the four parts work in sequence. The program is appropriate for analyzing local, regional, state, or national populations and is also useful for teaching the interrelated dynamics of population change. Data for the program are readily available. 1-2-3 can make graphs from the population program, which makes it easy for the user to visualize population changes. The ease of use of such programs can be beneficial in planning analysis, allowing planners, administrators, and the public to examine population models in detail and to test the assumptions on which they are based.

Who Benefits from Rent Control? Effects on Tenants in Santa Monica, California

Abstract The objective pf Santa Monicas rent control law, in effect since 1979, is to protect renters —particularly “the poor, minorities, students, young families and senior citizens” — from rapidly rising rents. Comparing 1987 and 1979 tenant surveys indicates that the rent control ordinance has fulfilled some of its goals. Length of tenure has increased, while lower-income tenants and the elderly have benefited most. In addition, the law may have contributed to stopping the decline in households with children. However, it has not stopped a decline in the proportion of black and Latino households. The results suggest that the vacancy control provision of the ordinance is the major factor offering protection to tenants. Since rent control does not increase the supply of affordable rental units nor prevent housing discrimination, it should be viewed as one of a number of housing policy strategies for maintaining affordable housing for specific target populations.

Factors Affecting Vehicle Occupancy Measurement

Factors affecting vehicle occupancy measurement were examined with the aim of improving state vehicle occupancy monitoring programs. A comparison was conducted of five data sets looking at the effects on average vehicle occupancy (AVO) of time of day, day of week, road types, HOV lanes, locational differences, and traffic volume. It was found that AVO was higher in the afternoons, on Saturdays, and on HOV lanes. Inconsistent differences were found for the other variables, though there were considerable locational variations. Based on these factors, suggestions are made for drawing samples to represent regional and corridor-level vehicle occupancy levels.

The Effects of Vacancy Control

Abstract This article examines changes between 1980 and 1990 in the number of rental units and the demographic composition of tenants in four California cities that adopted rent control with vacancy control provisions. Six border areas within the four cities were compared to border areas of adjoining cities that did not have vacancy control. A spatial lag regression model was constructed to estimate the changes in regional and neighborhood components in addition to vacancy control policies. Vacancy control contributed to lower rents and longer tenure by tenants compared to non-vacancy-controlled areas. There were also fewer rental units in part because of a shift from rental housing to owner-occupied housing.