Neil Collier

The intersection of food security and biodiversity conservation: a review

Food security and biodiversity conservation are key challenges of the twenty-first century. While traditionally these two challenges were addressed separately, recently, papers have begun to specifically address the nexus of food security and biodiversity conservation. We conducted a structured literature review of 91 papers addressing this nexus. To ascertain how a given paper approached the topic, we assessed to what extent it covered 68 potentially relevant issues. The resulting dataset was analyzed using cluster analysis. Two main branches of literature, containing a total of six clusters of papers, were identified. The “biophysical-technical” branch (clusters: “sustainable intensification” and “production focus”) was dominated by the natural sciences, focused strongly on the production aspect of food security, and sought general solutions. In contrast, the “social-political” branch (clusters: “social-ecological development”; “empowerment for food security”; “agroecology and food sovereignty”; and “social-ecological systems”) often drew on the social sciences and emphasized social relations and governance, alongside broader considerations of sustainability and human well-being. While the biophysical-technical branch was often global in focus, much of the social-political branch focused on specific localities. Two clusters of papers, one from each branch, stood out as being particularly broad in scope—namely the clusters on “sustainable intensification” and “agroecology and food sovereignty.” Despite major differences in their conceptual basis, we argue that exchange between these two research clusters could be particularly helpful in generating insights on the food–biodiversity nexus that are both generally applicable and sufficiently nuanced to capture key system-specific variables.

Reframing the Food–Biodiversity Challenge

Given the serious limitations of production-oriented frameworks, we offer here a new conceptual framework for how to analyze the nexus of food security and biodiversity conservation. We introduce four archetypes of social-ecological system states corresponding to win-win (e.g., agroecology), win-lose (e.g., intensive agriculture), lose-win (e.g., fortress conservation), and lose-lose (e.g., degraded landscapes) outcomes for food security and biodiversity conservation. Each archetype is shaped by characteristic external drivers, exhibits characteristic internal social-ecological features, and has characteristic feedbacks that maintain it. This framework shifts the emphasis from focusing on production only to considering social-ecological dynamics, and enables comparison among landscapes. Moreover, examining drivers and feedbacks facilitates the analysis of possible transitions between system states (e.g., from a lose-lose outcome to a more preferred outcome).

A Two-Phase Model for Smoothly Joining Disparate Growth Phases in the Macropodid Thylogale billardierii

Generally, sigmoid curves are used to describe the growth of animals over their lifetime. However, because growth rates often differ over an animals lifetime a single curve may not accurately capture the growth. Broken-stick models constrained to pass through a common point have been proposed to describe the different growth phases, but these are often unsatisfactory because essentially there are still two functions that describe the lifetime growth. To provide a single, converged model to age animals with disparate growth phases we developed a smoothly joining two-phase nonlinear function (SJ2P), tailored to provide a more accurate description of lifetime growth of the macropod, the Tasmanian pademelon Thylogale billardierii. The model consists of the Verhulst logistic function, which describes pouch-phase growth – joining smoothly to the Brody function, which describes post-pouch growth. Results from the model demonstrate that male pademelons grew faster and bigger than females. Our approach provides a practical means of ageing wild pademelons for life history studies but given the high variability of the data used to parametrise the second growth phase of the model, the accuracy of ageing of post-weaned animals is low: accuracy might be improved with collection of longitudinal growth data. This study provides a unique, first robust method that can be used to characterise growth over the lifespan of pademelons. The development of this method is relevant to collecting age-specific vital rates from commonly used wildlife management practices to provide crucial insights into the demographic behaviour of animal populations.

Scenario modelling to support industry strategic planning and decision making

The Pastoral Properties Futures Simulator (PPFS) is a dynamic systems model, developed within a participatory action research partnership with the pastoral industry of Australias Northern Territory. The model was purpose-built to support the industrys strategic planning capacity in the face of environmental, market and institutional uncertainty. The mediated modelling process sought to maximise social learning of industry stakeholders. Simulations were conducted using scenarios representing combinations of climatic, market, institutional and technological assumptions. Stochastic parameters included rainfall and product prices. Economic and environmental performance of model farms, including greenhouse gas emissions, were estimated. A critical evaluation of the tool finds the PPFS fit for purpose. However, limitations include lack of output validation, small number of scenarios and simplistic treatment of environmental impact dimensions. With further development, the PPFS can provide a platform (a) to assist with industry planning across the whole of Northern Australia and beyond, and (b) for policy analysis and development in the context of the Australian pastoral industry.

Beyond cattle: potential futures of the pastoral industry in the Northern Territory

The pastoral industry of the Northern Territory faces a suite of environmental and economic challenges associated with, inter alia, export markets, costs of production, climate change, change in government policies, and potential cattle diseases. A participatory planning process was adopted by the industry’s principal representative body, the Northern Territory Cattlemen’s Association to explore the complexity and extent of possible impacts on the industry, and to initiate conversations about anticipating potential futures. The process was facilitated by a system dynamics model, named the Pastoral Properties Future Simulator (PPFS). The PPFS combined a systems modelling approach of the pastoral industry with scenario explorations to gauge the likely impacts on, and possible industry adaptations to, beef price variation, productivity improvements, diversification of land use, climate change, climate policy and employment. The PPFS was used as an interactive tool during stakeholder workshops and results underpinned discussions about impacts and adaptation strategies. Land use and enterprise diversification emerged as key strategies for building enterprise and industry resilience, but with regionally diverging emphasis. The research illustrates the benefits of applied systems dynamic modelling for participatory strategic planning in the face of an uncertain future. The PPFS helped industry members and stakeholders understand the complexity of drivers affecting the industry’s future, risk profiles, possible adaptation strategies and trade-offs.

A spatial overview of the global importance of Indigenous lands for conservation

Understanding the scale, location and nature conservation values of the lands over which Indigenous Peoples exercise traditional rights is central to implementation of several global conservation and climate agreements. However, spatial information on Indigenous lands has never been aggregated globally. Here, using publicly available geospatial resources, we show that Indigenous Peoples manage or have tenure rights over at least ~38 million km2 in 87 countries or politically distinct areas on all inhabited continents. This represents over a quarter of the world’s land surface, and intersects about 40% of all terrestrial protected areas and ecologically intact landscapes (for example, boreal and tropical primary forests, savannas and marshes). Our results add to growing evidence that recognizing Indigenous Peoples’ rights to land, benefit sharing and institutions is essential to meeting local and global conservation goals. The geospatial analysis presented here indicates that collaborative partnerships involving conservation practitioners, Indigenous Peoples and governments would yield significant benefits for conservation of ecologically valuable landscapes, ecosystems and genes for future generations.Land management and ownership by Indigenous Peoples are critical components of conservation strategies, but information on these has previously never been aggregated. Here, global data is compiled to show that Indigenous Peoples have tenure rights or manage a quarter of the world’s land area and 40% of all protected areas and intact ecosystems.

Disaggregating ecosystem services and disservices in the cultural landscapes of southwestern Ethiopia: a study of rural perceptions

ContextCultural landscapes provide essential ecosystem services to local communities, especially in poor rural settings. However, potentially negative impacts of ecosystems—or disservices—remain inadequately understood. Similarly, how benefit–cost outcomes differ within communities is unclear, but potentially important for cultural landscape management.ObjectivesHere we investigated whether distinct forest ecosystem service–disservice outcomes emerge within local communities. We aimed to characterize groups of community members according to service–disservice outcomes, and assessed their attitudes towards the forest.MethodsWe interviewed 150 rural households in southwestern Ethiopia about locally relevant ecosystem services (provisioning services) and disservices (wildlife impacts). Households were grouped based on their ecosystem service–disservice profiles through hierarchical clustering. We used linear models to assess differences between groups in geographic and socioeconomic characteristics, as well as attitudes toward the forest.ResultsWe identified three groups with distinct ecosystem service–disservice profiles. Half of the households fell into a “lose–lose” profile (low benefits, high costs), while fewer had “lose–escape” (low benefits, low costs) and “win–lose” (high benefits, high costs) profiles. Location relative to forest and altitude explained differences between the “lose–escape” profile and other households. Socioeconomic factors were also important. “Win–lose” households appeared to be wealthier and had better forest use rights compared to “lose–lose” households. Attitudes towards the forest did not differ between profiles.ConclusionsOur study demonstrates the importance of disaggregating both ecosystem services and disservices, instead of assuming that communities receive benefits and costs homogenously. To manage cultural landscapes sustainably, such heterogeneity must be acknowledged and better understood.

We Need Qualitative Progress to Address the Food–Biodiversity Nexus: A Reply to Seppelt et al.

We thank Seppelt et al. [1] for their thoughts on our paper, and welcome debate regarding how to best move forward in harmonizing food security and biodiversity conservation. We consider it useful to exchange ideas, including in areas where there may be disagreement, recognizing that reflection will help the scientific community to identify constructive ways forward. On the topic of food security and biodiversity conservation, we believe that what is needed, most of all, is qualitative change – we need to think in an entirely different, more holistic, and more visionary way about how to achieve good outcomes for both food security and biodiversity conservation.