Romy Greiner

The Tourism Futures Simulator: a systems thinking approach

Abstract Tourism operates as a complex system. In itself, the industry contains a myriad of factors and activities which are inter-dependent. In addition, there are two-way relationships to economic, social, environmental and policy factors at various spatial levels. In collaboration with the tourism industry, CSIRO has established the Tourism Futures Project which aims to develop an innovative framework for evaluating the benefits and impacts of nature-based tourism and the policy options for managing tourism activity and development. The case study area comprises Douglas Shire in Northern Queensland and the Cairns section of the Great Barrier Reef. This paper describes the progress in developing this framework for mapping and summarizing key social, economic and environmental outcomes of various development scenarios in annual steps to the year 2020. We refer to the framework as the Tourism Futures Simulator (TFS).

On the efficient use of a catchment's land and water resources: dryland salinization in Australia

Abstract This paper presents an investigation into the questions of long-term Pareto-optimal use of a catchments land and water resources in the face of encroaching dryland salinization. An optimal control approach is adopted for problem analysis and translated into a dynamic catchment optimization model of salinity management. Model results suggest that, for the catchment under consideration, it is economically efficient to restrict soil salinization to a fraction of the area at risk. In the model, large-scale land-use changes, as required for maximization of the present value of the catchment, are implemented within a decade. Optimal control activities focus on the areas potentially affected by salinity rather than the ‘recharge areas’ of the catchment, suggesting that upstream recharge is largely Pareto irrelevant. Pigovian and Coasean policy approaches are discussed under specific consideration of: (1) salinization as a stock externality; (2) the non-point source pollution character of recharge; and (3) the isolation paradox surrounding salinity management.

Ecosystem services from tropical savannas: economic opportunities through payments for environmental services

Economic activity in the tropical savannas of northern Australia, like rangeland regions across the globe, has traditionally been based on primary production – predominantly cattle grazing and mining. More recently, northern Australia has experienced an increase in the extent of the conservation estate and in tourism and associated service industries. These trends demonstrate an increasing recognition of the multifunctional character of the tropical savannas and business opportunities additional to the traditional primary production systems. The increasing recognition of the multifunctionality of landscapes and increasing demand for ecosystem services provides potential opportunities for economic returns for businesses and communities in the tropical savannas through the delivery of environmental services to sustain the region’s natural capital. This paper pursues two objectives. Firstly, it sets out to provide conceptual clarity around the notions of ecosystem services, environmental services and payments for environmental services (PES). Secondly, we sketch some of the opportunities associated with PES, with particular reference to the Gulf of Carpentaria in northern Australia.

Factors influencing farmers’ participation in contractual biodiversity conservation: a choice experiment with northern Australian pastoralists

Private landholders’ contributions to biodiversity conservation are critical in landscapes with insufficient formal conservation reserves, as is the case in Australias tropical savannas. This study reports results from a discrete choice experiment conducted with pastoralists and graziers across northern Australia. The experiment was designed to explore the willingness of pastoralists and graziers to sign up to voluntary biodiversity conservation contracts. Understanding preferences for contractual attributes and preference heterogeneity were additional objectives. Such knowledge can increase effectiveness and efficiency of conservation programs by informing contract design, negotiation and administration. Random parameter logit modelling showed that of contract attributes, conservation requirement, stewardship payment, contract duration and flexibility in contract conditions significantly influenced choices. Land productivity was a significant factor as were attitudes. There was significant heterogeneity of preferences for all contract attributes. Models were run for best–worst scaling responses and the first preferences subset, with the latter model deemed superior. Latent class modelling distinguished four classes of decision‐makers and illustrated different decision heuristics. Conservation investment strategies, which offer farmers contract options that meet biodiversity requirements while accommodating heterogeneous attribute preferences, are likely to lead to increased participation rates. Complementary suasion efforts are also required which espouse the benefits that pastoralists derive from biodiversity and participation in voluntary conservation contracts.

Testing for Allocation Efficiencies in Water Quality Tenders Across Catchments, Industries and Pollutants: A North Queensland Case Study

The design of competitive tenders to purchase environmental services requires judgements to be made about the funding scale and tender scope, with the latter incorporating considerations of geographic area, industries involved and the types of environmental outputs required. Increasing the scale and scope of tenders increases the likelihood that a larger range of proposals will be proposed and cost-effective ones selected. However, the use of larger and more broadly scoped tenders may reduce landholder participation and increase asking bids. In the study reported here, these issues have been tested with a single water quality tender run in north-eastern Australia in 2007 and 2008. Post hoc tests and workshop exercises show that while largerscale and scope tenders can generate efficiency gains, care has to be taken to maintain participation and avoid higher bid levels

Scenario modelling to support industry strategic planning and decision making

The Pastoral Properties Futures Simulator (PPFS) is a dynamic systems model, developed within a participatory action research partnership with the pastoral industry of Australias Northern Territory. The model was purpose-built to support the industrys strategic planning capacity in the face of environmental, market and institutional uncertainty. The mediated modelling process sought to maximise social learning of industry stakeholders. Simulations were conducted using scenarios representing combinations of climatic, market, institutional and technological assumptions. Stochastic parameters included rainfall and product prices. Economic and environmental performance of model farms, including greenhouse gas emissions, were estimated. A critical evaluation of the tool finds the PPFS fit for purpose. However, limitations include lack of output validation, small number of scenarios and simplistic treatment of environmental impact dimensions. With further development, the PPFS can provide a platform (a) to assist with industry planning across the whole of Northern Australia and beyond, and (b) for policy analysis and development in the context of the Australian pastoral industry.

Systems framework for regional-scale integrated modelling and assessment

Computer-based methods of integrated modelling and assessment provide an important means for reviewing policy choices in natural resource management (NRM). Research in support of NRM needs to address a wide range of issues involved, from point-scale biophysical, to business-scale human, to regional-scale planning issues. Research covering the full scope of such issues is by default multi-disciplinary and integrative and therefore analytically, methodologically and operationally challenging. The recently initiated Ord-Bonaparte Program is an example of a research and development program attempting to achieve both levels of integration in an applied NRM context. One key requirement for the success of the program lies in developing a systems framework that: (i) enables the integration of the various disciplinary research activities; and (ii) facilitates the implementation of research outputs by making integrated science relevant to decision-makers and translating new knowledge into outcomes for sustainable regional development. This paper proposes an approaches for such a systems framework.

Beyond cattle: potential futures of the pastoral industry in the Northern Territory

The pastoral industry of the Northern Territory faces a suite of environmental and economic challenges associated with, inter alia, export markets, costs of production, climate change, change in government policies, and potential cattle diseases. A participatory planning process was adopted by the industry’s principal representative body, the Northern Territory Cattlemen’s Association to explore the complexity and extent of possible impacts on the industry, and to initiate conversations about anticipating potential futures. The process was facilitated by a system dynamics model, named the Pastoral Properties Future Simulator (PPFS). The PPFS combined a systems modelling approach of the pastoral industry with scenario explorations to gauge the likely impacts on, and possible industry adaptations to, beef price variation, productivity improvements, diversification of land use, climate change, climate policy and employment. The PPFS was used as an interactive tool during stakeholder workshops and results underpinned discussions about impacts and adaptation strategies. Land use and enterprise diversification emerged as key strategies for building enterprise and industry resilience, but with regionally diverging emphasis. The research illustrates the benefits of applied systems dynamic modelling for participatory strategic planning in the face of an uncertain future. The PPFS helped industry members and stakeholders understand the complexity of drivers affecting the industry’s future, risk profiles, possible adaptation strategies and trade-offs.

Understanding Adoption of On-farm Conservation Practices in the Burdekin Dry Tropics, Queensland

This article is concerned with the capacity and willingness of cattle producers in the Australian dry tropics to adopt management practices for biodiversity conservation. It explores why landholders adopt or reject these practices using empirical research into the socio-economic status; the extent of adoption; perceived impediments to adoption; and landholder preferences and attitudes towards different natural resource management policies. Economic theory suggests that the extent of on-farm conservation will be less than socially desirable because a wider set of benefits accrue to society while landholders bear the costs. Using a socioeconomic perspective of on-farm conservation practices, the authors identify key issues for policy development aimed at increasing adoption.

An integrated modelling system for investigating the benefits of catchment management

Abstract Complex natural resource degradation problems such as dryland salinisation require integrated management solutions. Integrated catchment modelling can be used to develop such solutions. This paper presents three models that were applied independently in the Liverpool Plains Catchment, an important crop production area, in Eastern Australia. They are a point soil-plant-water model, an economic catchment model, and a catchment hydrology model. After discussing their individual merits and limitations, the paper develops the concept of a holistic modelling framework by combining these models to gain synergy effects in analytical ability as well as applicability and implementation of results.