Neil F. Laird

Observations of Widespread Lake-Effect Cloudiness: Influences of Lake Surface Temperature and Upwind Conditions

Abstract Large spatial and temporal variations were observed in the location of the upwind cloud edge over Lake Michigan during five westerly wind lake-effect events in November 1995 through January 1996. This study examines the impacts of variations of Lake Michigan surface water temperatures (and corresponding surface fluxes) and upwind static stability on the location of the upwind edge of lake-effect clouds, which develop as cold air crosses the lake during the winter. Data used in this study were collected during the 1995/96 National Weather Service Lake-Effect Snow study. Spatial variations in the location of the upwind lake-effect cloud edge are shown to be related to spatial variations in surface heat and moisture fluxes between the lake surface and overlying air. Surface fluxes are influenced by both the distribution of lake surface water temperatures and variations of surface wind speed, air temperature, and relative humidity. Temporal variations of heat and moisture fluxes from the lake surface...

Idealized Model Simulations Examining the Mesoscale Structure of Winter Lake-Effect Circulations

Abstract An array of 35 idealized mesoscale model simulations was used to examine environmental and surface forcing factors controlling the meso-β-scale circulation structure resulting from cold flow over an isolated axisymmetric body of water at the midlatitudes. Wind speed, lake–air temperature difference, ambient atmospheric stability, and fetch distance were varied across previously observed ranges. Simulated meso-β-scale lake-effect circulations occurred within three basic regimes (e.g., vortices, shoreline bands, widespread coverage), similar to observed morphological regimes. The current study found that the morphological regimes of lake-effect circulations can be predicted using the ratio of wind speed to maximum fetch distance (U/L). Lake-effect environmental conditions producing low values of U/L (i.e., approximately < 0.02 m s−1 km−1) resulted in a mesoscale vortex circulation. Conditions leading to U/L values between about 0.02 and 0.09 m s−1 km−1 resulted in the development of a shoreline ban...

Model Simulations Examining the Relationship of Lake-Effect Morphology to Lake Shape, Wind Direction, and Wind Speed

Abstract Idealized model simulations with an isolated elliptical lake and prescribed winter lake-effect environmental conditions were used to examine the influences of lake shape, wind speed, and wind direction on the mesoscale morphology. This study presents the first systematic examination of variations in lake shape and the interplay between these three parameters. The array of 21 model simulations produced cases containing each of the three classic lake-effect morphologies (i.e., vortices, shoreline bands, and widespread coverage), and, in some instances, the mesoscale circulations were composed of coexisting morphologies located over the lake, near the downwind shoreline, or inland from the downwind shore. As with lake-effect circulations simulated over circular lakes, the ratio of wind speed (U) to maximum fetch distance (L) was found to be a valuable parameter for determining the morphology of a lake-effect circulation when variations of lake shape, wind speed, and wind direction were introduced. F...

Initial Precipitation Formation in Warm Florida Cumulus

The microphysical processes that lead to the development of precipitation in small, warm cumulus are examined using data from the Small Cumulus Microphysics Study near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Aircraft measurements are used to determine the concentration and size distribution of giant and ultragiant nuclei in clear air as a function of relative humidity, altitude, wind speed, and wind direction. The clear-air particle distributions show that ultragiant particles (radii extending from 10 to 150 mm) exist from the surface to cloud base in concentrations that correspond to the concentrations of raindrops observed during drizzle to moderate rainfall events. A shift of the spectra toward larger size with increasing relative humidity was observed, suggesting that the spectra are composed of deliquesced particles growing by condensation. The small cumulus clouds are shown to contain cores where the observed liquid water content was nearly adiabatic. The observed evolution of the cloud droplet distribution within the near-adiabatic cores as a function of height showed an increase in the small droplet mode associated with condensation and an increase in the concentration of larger droplets associated with growth by accretion. Droplets with radii extending to nearly 100 mm were present just above cloud base. These measurements were consistent with the clear-air measurements and provided evidence that the ultragiant nuclei can immediately act as embryos for raindrop growth by accretion upon entering cloud base. Comparisons of reflectivity computed from the cumulus core composite droplet distributions with the radar-observed reflectivity data provided independent evidence that the composite spectra reasonably represented the evolving microstructure of the cores of small cumulus clouds as they grew vertically. The analyses provide strong evidence of an efficient process for the initial development of precipitation in small Florida cumuli. This process consists of raindrop embryo formation on ultragiant nuclei followed by growth by accretion as the newly formed drops proceed upward through the adiabatic cores of the cumulus clouds. These data support the conceptual model of raindrop formation in marine clouds first proposed by Woodcock a half century ago.

Transitions in Boundary Layer Meso-γ Convective Structures:An Observational Case Study

Boundary layer rolls over Lake Michigan have been observed in wintertime conditions predicted by many past studies to favor nonroll convective structures (such as disorganized convection or cellular convection). This study examines mechanisms that gave rise to transitions between boundary layer rolls and more cellular convective structures observed during a lake-effect snow event over Lake Michigan on 17 December 1983. The purposes of this study are to better understand roll formation in marine boundary layers strongly heated from below and examine the evolution of snowfall rate and mass overturning rate within the boundary layer during periods of convective transition. A method of quantifying the uniformity of convection along the roll axes, based on dual-Doppler radar-derived vertical motions, was developed to quantify changes in boundary layer convective structure. Roll formation was found to occur after (within 1 h) increases in low-level wind speeds and speed shear primarily below about 0.3zi, with little change in directional shear within the convective boundary layer. Roll convective patterns appeared to initiate upstream of the sample region, rather than form locally near the downwind shore of Lake Michigan. These findings suggest that either rolls developed over the upwind half of Lake Michigan or that the convection had a delayed response to changes in the atmospheric surface and wind forcing. Mass overturning rates at midlevels in the boundary layer peaked when rolls were dominant and gradually decreased when cellular convection became more prevalent. Radar-estimated aerial-mean snowfall rates showed little relationship with changes in convective structure. However, when rolls were dominant, the heaviest snow was more concentrated in updraft regions than during more cellular time periods.

Lake Michigan Lake Breezes: Climatology, Local Forcing, and Synoptic Environment

A method was developed to identify the occurrence of lake-breeze events along the eastern, western, and both shores of Lake Michigan during a 15-yr period (1982‐96). Comparison with detailed observations from May through September of 1996‐97 showed that the method reasonably identified Lake Michigan lake-breeze events. The method also demonstrated the important ability to distinguish non-lake-breeze events; a problem experienced by previously developed lake-breeze criteria. Analyses of the 15-yr climatological data indicated that lake breezes tended to occur more frequently along the eastern shore of Lake Michigan than along the western shore. On average, a maximum number of lake-breeze events occurred during August at each location. This maximum is most closely associated with weaker monthly average wind speeds. Even though the air‐lake temperature difference DT provides the local forcing for the development of the lake-breeze circulation, large temperature differences are not required. Nearly 70% of all events occurred with a daytime maximum DT # 128C. The evaluation of a lake-breeze index « used in past studies and many forecasting applications showed indices computed using offshore or shore-perpendicular wind speeds (U or |U|, respectively) at inland sites resolved

Numerical Simulation of Transitions in Boundary Layer Convective Structures in a Lake-Effect Snow Event

95% of identified events based on critical « values of 2‐6. When wind speed, irrespective of wind direction, was used to calculate «, the success of the critical indices decreased by as much as 26%. Results also showed that the lake-breeze index has a considerable tendency to overestimate the number of events. Although the possibility was suggested by previous investigations, the critical value of « may not be appreciably affected by changes in location along the shoreline. In addition, noteworthy differences in the position of synoptic-scale sea level pressure and wind fields with respect to Lake Michigan were found to occur during eastern, western, and both-shore lake-breeze events.

Convective evolution across Lake Michigan during a widespread lake-effect snow event

Abstract Numerical simulations are used to study transitions between boundary layer rolls and more cellular convective structures observed during a lake-effect snow event over Lake Michigan on 17 December 1983. Weak lake-effect nonroll convection was observed near the eastern (downwind) shore preceding passage of a secondary cold front. After frontal passage horizontal wind speeds in the convective boundary layer increased, with subsequent development of linear convective patterns. Thereafter the convective pattern became more three-dimensional as low-level wind speeds decreased. Little directional shear was observed in any of the wind profiles. Numerical simulations with the Advanced Regional Prediction System model were initialized with an upwind sounding and radar-derived wind profiles corresponding to each of the three convective structure regimes. Model-derived reflectivity fields were in good agreement with the observed regimes. These simulations differed primarily in the initial wind speed profiles...

Comparison of Observations with Idealized Model Results for a Method to Resolve Winter Lake-Effect Mesoscale Morphology

Abstract Lake-effect snowstorms generally develop within convective boundary layers, which are induced when cold air flows over relatively warm lakes in fall and winter. Mesoscale circulations within the boundary layers largely control which communities near the downwind shores of the lakes receive the most intense snow. The lack of quantitative observations over the lakes during lake-effect storms limits the ability to fully understand and predict these mesoscale circulations. This study provides the first observations of the concurrent spatial and temporal evolution of the thermodynamic and microphysical boundary layer structure and mesoscale convective patterns across Lake Michigan during an intense lake-effect event. Observations analyzed in this study were taken during the Lake-Induced Convection Experiment (Lake-ICE). Aircraft and sounding observations indicate that the lake-effect snows of 13 January 1998 developed within a convective boundary layer that grew rapidly across Lake Michigan. Boundary ...

Observation of Coexisting Mesoscale Lake-Effect Vortices over the Western Great Lakes

Abstract Forecasters in the Great Lakes region have for several decades recognized a general relationship of wind speed and overlake fetch to lake-effect snowstorm morphology. A recent study using idealized mesoscale model simulations of lake-effect conditions over circular and elliptical lakes showed the ratio of wind speed to maximum fetch distance (U/L) may be used to effectively predict lake-effect snowstorm morphology. The current investigation provides an assessment of the U/L criteria using observational datasets. Previously published Great Lakes lake-effect snowstorm observational studies were used to identify events of known mesoscale morphology. Hindcasts of nearly 640 lake-effect events were performed using historical observations with U/L as the predictor. Results show that the quantity U/L contains important information on the different mesoscale lake-effect morphologies; however, it provides only a limited benefit when being used to predict mesoscale morphology in real lake-effect situations...